UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis

Dodson is a good dog here she is the more proven fighter and gone the distance with ufc caliber.her physique is good
 
2020Tracked said:
Why should Klose be able to win the grappling exchanges?
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I think Klose has defended and even won grappling exchanges against much better wrestlers than Pena. Pena has some decent TD's and tricky bjj but seems to prefer control time rather than looking for submissions/finishes.

So far in the ufc the only people Pena has out wrestled were bad grapplers or a washed up Matt Wiman. I don't rate Khama Worthy very highly at all. Even he was able to reverse Pena on the ground and eventually submit him when his grappling got sloppy.

Klose also grapples dirty grabbing the glove and even the fence to gain an advantage. As long as it isn't blatant enough for a point deduction I think it could serve him well here. To me Pena's PTV seems to be decision only maybe a lucky sub if Drakkar gets careless.

I think Pena has to fight behind his jab at range or win via control time and I don't see either happening. I think Drakkar's stand up is too aggressive and doubt Pena has the skill or cardio to dominate the grappling. Guess I'm alot more impressed by Klose nearly finishing Dariush(chinny or not) than Pena almost outpointing Worthy.
 
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After rewatching Emmers last fight I think I'll pass on prebetting him, at least his ML. His takedowns and transitions didn't look good against Cachero. If he survives r1 I might bet him live. I think he wins the standup all day but Skelly is too crafty a grappler. If Emmers even engages in the grappling early I won't be surprised if Skelly goes for his neck.

I doubt we see anything like this finish Saturday but Chas is pretty good at capitalizing on mistakes.
 
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Sono07 said:
After rewatching Emmers last fight I think I'll pass on prebetting him, at least his ML. His takedowns and transitions didn't look good against Cachero. If he survives r1 I might bet him live. I think he wins the standup all day but Skelly is too crafty a grappler. If Emmers even engages in the grappling early I won't be surprised if Skelly goes for his neck.
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He was a iowa state wrestler in highschool with scholarship for college, derailed by a broken hand, wrestling partners include Bobby Green, his wrestling will hold up against the aging vet, Emmers physical strength is also enough to make this a safe bet, and a bjj brown belt.
 
OuterDrake said:
He was a iowa state wrestler in highschool with scholarship for college, derailed by a broken hand, wrestling partners include Bobby Green, his wrestling will hold up against the aging vet, Emmers physical strength is also enough to make this a safe bet, and a bjj brown belt.
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Hopefully you're right, I still like him Emmers to win by decision. Skelly is still very dangerous for the first half of the fight though.

Chas went 164-3 as a high school wrestler and won state his senior year before placing 7th at nationals at the collegiate level. Emmers needs to treat the ground like lava early or I could see him getting chain wrestled.
 
StewDogg11 said:
When has Lewis ever done this besides the Ngannou fight?
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well he got boring decision wins again Nelson, Latifi or Blagoy too but all I meant is it seems Black Beast is just as likely to win a boring decision (like Arvloski) as he is to knock someone out these days
 
Kazda1 said:
I remember Skelly being pretty decent. Is there anything we can go by to suggest he's been improving since having not fought in a while?
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He is training with Gilbert and those guys so its possible.
 
Sono07 said:
I think Klose has defended and even won grappling exchanges against much better wrestlers than Pena. Pena has some decent TD's and tricky bjj but seems to prefer control time rather than looking for submissions/finishes.

So far in the ufc the only people Pena has out wrestled were bad grapplers or a washed up Matt Wiman. I don't rate Khama Worthy very highly at all. Even he was able to reverse Pena on the ground and eventually submit him when his grappling got sloppy.

Klose also grapples dirty grabbing the glove and even the fence to gain an advantage. As long as it isn't blatant enough for a point deduction I think it could serve him well here. To me Pena's PTV seems to be decision only maybe a lucky sub if Drakkar gets careless.

I think Pena has to fight behind his jab at range or win via control time and I don't see either happening. I think Drakkar's stand up is too aggressive and doubt Pena has the skill or cardio to dominate the grappling. Guess I'm alot more impressed by Klose nearly finishing Dariush(chinny or not) than Pena almost outpointing Worthy.
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Klose landed one meaningful punch Vs Dariush and other than that was dominated. Wasn't an impressive showing given he arguably was 10-8d in R1 then got knocked out hard. Klose isn't a finisher either, couldn't put away a habitual gasser like Giagos and instead went to war and struggled with the grappling. About the fourth time he's had his back taken there too.

Klose is decent sure but has a ton of issues and take away questionable Dec wins over guys like Green and his record isn't much better than Pena whose been on the wrong end of those type of decisions.
 
Jordan3399 said:
Klose landed one meaningful punch Vs Dariush and other than that was dominated. Wasn't an impressive showing given he arguably was 10-8d in R1 then got knocked out hard. Klose isn't a finisher either, couldn't put away a habitual gasser like Giagos and instead went to war and struggled with the grappling. About the fourth time he's had his back taken there too.

Klose is decent sure but has a ton of issues and take away questionable Dec wins over guys like Green and his record isn't much better than Pena whose been on the wrong end of those type of decisions.
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Is this a fight at 155 though? Pena is no true lightweight. None of Pena's wins in either weight class he's fought at are on Klose's level.
 
Jordan3399 said:
Klose landed one meaningful punch Vs Dariush and other than that was dominated. Wasn't an impressive showing given he arguably was 10-8d in R1 then got knocked out hard. Klose isn't a finisher either, couldn't put away a habitual gasser like Giagos and instead went to war and struggled with the grappling. About the fourth time he's had his back taken there too.

Klose is decent sure but has a ton of issues and take away questionable Dec wins over guys like Green and his record isn't much better than Pena whose been on the wrong end of those type of decisions.
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Not saying Klose looked spectacular against Dariush but he had his moments. He landed early r1 forced Dariush to grapple and proved to be hard to hold down, granted he had alot of help from grabbing the fence. Even then surviving a round with Benny on his back without getting subbed is a little impressive to me.

Giagos might be a gasbag but he is a much more physical grappler than Pena. That and Pena doesn't have the greatest cardio himself, he always seems to slow halfway through the fight. I just think its Klose's fight to lose.

I guess I'm not impressed with Pena's stand up and don't think he can force a grappling heavy gameplan here. I agree Klose definitely has some holes and I wouldn't be surprised to see him drop the ball, he doesn't seem to adapt to changes well. Either way I think we probably see a decision, I wouldn't be shocked to see 29-28 for either guy but my money is on Drakkar.
 
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Hellowhosthat said:
Tom's defeats were a long time ago now and early in his career. One of them was a DQ and the other was against a more experienced Stuart Austin (who's decent in his own right)

He's also not overly muscle-bound and flows with his punches rather than wings bombs so I'm not overly concerned about him gassing personally.
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can't argue with you about any of that. But there is something to look at when a fighter has never made it out the 1st round without losing.
 
Personally I don't love Oleinik's chances in his fight.........but for a guy who has over 70% of his wins by submission, having his sub prop at +1100 seems absurd. His KO prop is only +225.
 
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Jordan3399 said:
Klose landed one meaningful punch Vs Dariush and other than that was dominated. Wasn't an impressive showing given he arguably was 10-8d in R1 then got knocked out hard. Klose isn't a finisher either, couldn't put away a habitual gasser like Giagos and instead went to war and struggled with the grappling. About the fourth time he's had his back taken there too.

Klose is decent sure but has a ton of issues and take away questionable Dec wins over guys like Green and his record isn't much better than Pena whose been on the wrong end of those type of decisions.
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he's also already talking about testing free agency outside ufc. His mind is else where, doesnt even wana be in the UFC. money on Pena even though i fucking hate his guts, hes +150

https://www.bjpenn.com/mma-news/exc...c-already-knows-who-they-want-to-be-champion/

"I can win 10 fights in a row and still not fight for the title just like Charles Oliveira,” Klose explained"

Dude is 5-2 in the UFC and bitching.
 
loller90278 said:
first reads:

  • Oleinik at +155 is a steal
  • Oleinik/Daukaus DNGTD seems like a safe bet
  • Minner/Rosa DNGTD seems like a safe bet. Minner SUB depending on what the odds are
  • Castaneda ML at -120 could still have a lot more value. Wineland is cooked glass cannon -- going to fade the old man
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I'm gonna have to warn ya, Rosa is a legit BB under Ricardio Liborio. He's also never been subbed in mma.
 
Casual Cro Cop said:
Personally I don't love Oleinik's chances in his fight.........but for a guy who has over 70% of his wins by submission, having his sub prop at +1100 seems absurd. His KO prop is only +225.
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Damn. This reads like the oddsmaker's entered it backwards

Olenik only has one KO win in the UFC and it was back in 2014. He also only has one UFC Dec (split over Werdum). Oleinik's rightly a +185 underdog, but if he's going to win this fight at all, it's most likely going to be by sub even if Daukaus is a black belt himself. He got Americannaed in 2015 in his 4th career pro fight it looks like.


$12 to win $132 on Oleinik by sub it is.
Had $12 on Jim Miller 1st round submission before Bobby Green passed out. So this looks like a good place for my longshot lunch money.
 
HockeyBjj said:
Damn. This reads like the oddsmaker's entered it backwards

Olenik only has one KO win in the UFC and it was back in 2014. He also only has one UFC Dec (split over Werdum). Oleinik's rightly a +185 underdog, but if he's going to win this fight at all, it's most likely going to be by sub even if Daukaus is a black belt himself. He got Americannaed in 2015 in his 4th career pro fight it looks like.


$12 to win $132 on Oleinik by sub it is.
Had $12 on Jim Miller 1st round submission before Bobby Green passed out. So this looks like a good place for my longshot lunch money.
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Betting on line errors isn’t a good strategy if you’re looking to continue playing on that book
 
Casual Cro Cop said:
Personally I don't love Oleinik's chances in his fight.........but for a guy who has over 70% of his wins by submission, having his sub prop at +1100 seems absurd. His KO prop is only +225.
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That's a line error, should be reversed.
 
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