Official bets for Blydes vs Lewis

€45 on Blades + over 1.5 rds @ 1.87
€25 on Imavov ML @ 2.05
€20 on Landwehr ML @ 2.00
€25 on Gordon ML @ 2.25
€15 on Spivak via Dec @ 2.50
€15 on Peña @ 2.60

Went 1-4-1 for -74 euro's.
Don't regret the Imavov play, feel like he was really close to putting Hawes out. Was banking on Landwehrs durability in the war which seemed to have faded. Big loss was ofcourse due to the Blades fight. Funny thing he was doing fine on the feet and got killed trying to wrestle. Learned my lesson with Lewis though, dude the type of anomaly that you can't fade because of that ridiculous power.
 
Passed on the other 3 heavyweight fights, including the main event, and Dobson vs. O'Neill, but have

4.5u on Spivak at -225

Might play Kunitskaya-Vieira for a smaller amount, too.

Added 1.2u on Hawes at -250 after round 2 for

the +2.5u night

Funnily enough, prior to tape, I really liked Kunitskaya at +230 and Lewis at like +350. And yet, I don't feel bad for passing on either one of those. I knew Kunitskaya and Vieira replicated one another in many respects, but I thought Vieira was tougher, more technical, and would have an edge from missing weight. I expected Kunitskaya to be at her best in round 1 too, which wasn't the case. And lastly, I thought Vieira outright won the fight. Can't feel too bad on missing a +230 when it took a bad, unusual decision to do so.

As for Lewis-Blaydes, Blaydes could not only out-grapple him, but he was badly out-striking him and wisely beating up his legs, which would have taken away Lewis' power. Unfortunately, he made a bad mistake, being a little too obvious with his shot, not setting it up with anything, and Lewis countered him with a perfect uppercut. A perfect KO punch like that is usually a 20-25% chance, which is in line with Lewis' line.

I have two genuine regrets, though.

1. I knew Erosa had to be value at +120 but just didn't get around to fully taping the match. Ugh.

2. Should have went even heavier than 4.5u on Spivak at that ridiculous -225 line. 6u at least. Chances like that don't come around more than once in a month's worth of events.

On the bright side, I actually managed to make a successful tennis bet while watching MMA. True gambling degeneracy!
 
●Blaydes -5 1/2 + Spivak
2u for 1.75u

●Blaydes/Lewis O1.5 + Ketlen/Yana O2.5
+ Not Rodriguez ISD
.45u for .8u

●Blaydes -5 1/2 + Imavov+ Rosa+ Zahabi+ Spivak
.15u for 2.2u
Once again I set my night up to fail using one big read as a linchpin holding everything together. Gotta work on my approach moving forward.

Total -2.6u
 
pre fight parlay lost $50 on Blaydes
$50/$48 hawes win

live bets
O Neill 50/$28.57 win
Aspinall inside $25/$24 win
Minner after round 1 $500/77 win
Hawes after round 1 $435/$100 win
Viera by dec $110/$100 lost
Oneinik inside 25/52 lost

+92.57 didn’t love the card so didn’t try to force too much. The hawes live bet could have ruined the night and I had to hold on there but luckily he survived. Won’t be doing that again w him. Looking forward to the March 6th card got a big bet already locked in on aljo at +142
 
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