UFC Fight Night - Waterson vs Rodriguez.. Maybe? Offical discussion

Cowboy/Morono DNGTD +140 sounds solid to me.

Cowboy can get starched in the 1st or I see Cowboy getting the job done in the 3rd.
 
Cowboy/Morono DNGTD +140 sounds solid to me.

Cowboy can get starched in the 1st or I see Cowboy getting the job done in the 3rd.
Dont see Morono starching Cowboy in the first if Price couldn't. He isn't some sort of heavy hitter
 
Marinas tdd looked incredible vs Torres but Carla took her down easily. Not sure where KH's td game falls here.
 
If high volume Morono shows up I think he can outpoint Cowboy somewhat easily but that's a big "if". Morono looked tentative vs Pettis. He had a PTV and kinda shit the bed. He's no world-beater, but doesn't need to be to outwork this version of Cowboy.

Cerrone looked solid vs Niko but that's because Price is so utterly hittable. He stands directly in front of his opponent and eats one to land one. Morono at his best won't do that.

I kinda like Morono at dog odds and his dec line too.
 
Marinas tdd looked incredible vs Torres but Carla took her down easily. Not sure where KH's td game falls here.
this fight is at flyweight, waterson si already a small strawweight. This fight should be rodriguez all day.
 
I think the play is to livebet Waterson after r1 and maybe even r2.

A late sub off of a trip should present itself in r4/5.

Waterson has shown 5 round cardio before, and the lack of weight cut will only benefit her after a certain point in the fight.
 
Ribas really messed up against Marina Rodriguez because she could have submitted her during the first round but was treating the fight like it was a grappling match in how little urgency she showed to get the submission during the first round.

If you don't trust Ribas after how badly she choked against Rodriguez I get that, but you are lighting your money on fire if you bet on Hill just stay away from the fight. Ribas is still the best offensive grappler in the women's divisions. She took Mackenzie Dern down twice and after that Dern wanted nothing to do with her on the ground. She is going to submit Hill or knock her out no question about it; just a matter of how the finish comes.

Likely will be a first round submission. Hills TDD defense has not improved, look at how easy Ashley Yoder took Hill down. Ribas has never had a problem taking people down, she was an olympic trialist in Judo, and we all saw how easy the judo black belt who fought last week Luana Pinheiro took Markos down.

Ribas also has heavier hands than Hill and her striking is better in general. Most refs would have stopped her onslaught of Randa Markos but she had a first time ref who looked willing to let Markos die on the octagon. So it could very well be a TKO.

All this free money because the YouTube 'experts' are telling people to play Hill <45>
 
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Am I half or full retarded for thinking Morono at + odds is a steal

Not at all. You're fading a shopworn guy who doesn't move at all like he used to and who's reflexes have deteriorated. Prime Cerrone clowns Morono but that's not what we're getting. Morono looked like dogshit vs Pettis so yeah he may shit the bed again. Cerrone looked okay vs Niko, but Niko is about as stationary a target as there is for high level MMA. He blocks punches with his face, wants to brawl.

So yeah there's no way anyone could be super confident in Morono here, but I agree he has value at dog odds for sure.
 
Ribas really messed up against Marina Rodriguez because she could have submitted her during the first round but was treating the fight like it was a grappling match in how little urgency she showed to get the submission during the first round.

If you don't trust Ribas after how badly she choked against Rodriguez I get that, but you are lighting your money on fire if you bet on Hill just stay away from the fight. Ribas is still the best offensive grappler in the women's divisions. She took Mackenzie Dern down twice and after that Dern wanted nothing to do with her on the ground. She is going to submit Hill or knock her out no question about it; just a matter of how the finish comes.

Likely will be a first round submission. Hills TDD defense has not improved, look at how easy Ashley Yoder took Hill down. Ribas has never had a problem taking people down, she was an olympic trialist in Judo, and we all saw how easy the judo black belt who fought last week Luana Pinheiro took Markos down.

Ribas also has heavier hands than Hill and her striking is better in general. Most refs would have stopped her onslaught of Randa Markos but she had a first time ref who looked willing to let Markos die on the octagon. So it could very well be a TKO.

All this free money because the YouTube 'experts' are telling people to play Hill <45>

Ribas took Dern down late in rd 1, Dern absolutely wanted to go back to the mat but her TD ability sucked ass at that point. She tried multiple times in rd 2 to take Ribas down. She was basically kicked out of camp for being lazy and not training. She wasn't taking her career seriously at all.

I'm not saying Ribas isn't a legit grappler and I agree I wouldn't play Angie here at all. But I don't think you can take away that Ribas is Dern's level as far as grappling goes because of their fight. Ribas might be a better grappler than lazy, not training, out of shape Dern. But the current version of Dern that actually cares is better.
 
Am I half or full retarded for thinking Morono at + odds is a steal

I think Cerrone will win; even this version of him is better than Morono. Not to mention how quickly he gassed against Pettis and Cerrone always has great cardio.
 
Ribas took Dern down late in rd 1, Dern absolutely wanted to go back to the mat but her TD ability sucked ass at that point. She tried multiple times in rd 2 to take Ribas down. She was basically kicked out of camp for being lazy and not training. She wasn't taking her career seriously at all.

I'm not saying Ribas isn't a legit grappler and I agree I wouldn't play Angie here at all. But I don't think you can take away that Ribas is Dern's level as far as grappling goes because of their fight. Ribas might be a better grappler than lazy, not training, out of shape Dern. But the current version of Dern that actually cares is better.

She took her down twice. Once in the first, once in the second. Ribas took Dern down both times to show her she was not scared to go to the ground with her. Which is why 90% of the fight took place on the feet.

They aren't at the same level in terms of 'grappling', Dern is a former world champion. Ribas though is better at using her grappling offensively because she is much smoother at getting her opponents to the ground than Dern; because of the judo.

Dern was in shape enough to make 115, calling her 'lazy and out of shape' or saying 'she was not training' are just excuses used to discount Ribas' domination of her. And if you watched that fight, which it sounds like you did, I am sure you would agree it was pure domination and Dern looked like a minor league fighter out there.
 
Am I half or full retarded for thinking Morono at + odds is a steal
Maybe quarter cause you never know when cowboy has completely fallen off the cliff at this point in his career.. but morono performance vs pettis was a big red flag to me once he took a step up in competition, and if cowboy happened to go with a grappling route he'd look like -500 I'd imagine.
 
She took her down twice. Once in the first, once in the second. Ribas took Dern down both times to show her she was not scared to go to the ground with her. Which is why 90% of the fight took place on the feet.

They aren't at the same level in terms of 'grappling', Dern is a former world champion. Ribas though is better at using her grappling offensively because she is much smoother at getting her opponents to the ground than Dern; because of the judo.

Dern was in shape enough to make 115, calling her 'lazy and out of shape' or saying 'she was not training' are just excuses used to discount Ribas' domination of her. And if you watched that fight, which it sounds like you did, I am sure you would agree it was pure domination and Dern looked like a minor league fighter out there.

I don't think Ribas was scared to go to the mat with Dern, no. Not what I said. I was replying to you saying Dern wanted no part of Ribas there, which is basically the opposite of what Dern wanted. Ribas was piecing her up standing, Dern's standup looked like trash.

You can say it's an excuse, and Dern did make weight (that time, which means she watched her diet at least), but her lazy habits back then weren't a secret. Basically everyone at MMA Lab said she didn't want to train (they asked her to leave!). Would rather be on the beach, etc. She was a bjj ace that thought she could move to MMA and fuck around and not worry about learning to strike or the other parts of grappling and still beat everyone. Worked in LFA, but when competition got better, she learned otherwise vs Ribas. Got her ass kicked.

Comparing what Dern looks like now vs then...just look at her striking. It's WORLDS better. Back then she did nothing but wing haymakers and pray one landed. She's also clearly worked on entries and takedowns. Hell yes she got dominated by Ribas, Dern's overall game was garbage because she didn't care about training. Again, that's not from me. That's from pretty much everyone she "trained" with back then.

In a rematch, I think we would see a MUCH different fight.
 
Terrible situation for Marina, at least the fight is at flyweight. Can't expect her to be anywhere near her best all things considered. The line is going to tighten.
 
I'm not going to lie, I haven't taped Rodriguez that much. I will in the next few days.

Does she fade in r3 at all? Or does she always finish strong?

I need to go back and rewatch her fights with Torres/Aguilar/Carla.

I remember Carla taking her down repeatedly, but can't remember how her gas tank was.
 
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