UFC 270: N'Gannou vs. Gane

[Kamais_Ookin]

O1.5 on Viera/Turman is great imo. Wellington's a BJJ guy himself so he should be able to survive a bit in the worst of cases, and I doubt Rodolfo will be keen on pushing the pace unnecesarily.

Not a bad look, vieira last fight he came out with a more slow pace style throwing jabs and stuff and if he does that again could def see this going late.

 

[ReasonableMan]

Hello everyone, i am a long time follower of sherdog, somehow i just signed up.

I was a muay thai fighter which i won the regional heavyweight title 2011', now i conditioner of 3 wrestler, one of them will take medal in europeans 97 kg freestyle.

Why i am talking so much, reason is this: the other wrestler is a friend of Ngannou's training partner. He said he hurt Ngannou's knee while a td attempt. As a long time partner of him, he said ngannou is not hitting as hard as he was and no interest about wrestling game against cyril gane.


So i am fine with Gane about -110/120

Good luck.

I hope this fooled no one.

This guy is trying to get great odds on Ngannou, and based on the number of "likes", he might succeed.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Pete Rodriguez has some very heavy hands. He has not exactly been fighting elite competition but the 1st round KO is certainly very live.

 

[Thesnake101]

I also think Giles is worth 2.2, I've actually been a long time fan of Morales, but this is a very young kid in his first big fight in the UFC in a big step up on a stage with a full crowd, he might crumble a bit under the pressure and if Giles can make the cut okay he beat Krause who's a very good WW.

Taking a punt on Stamann at 2.63 too, just because I think Said gets a bit of the Nurmagomedov rub and I'm yet to see him really turn it on against anyone good. Stamann is a tough out and will make him work.

Didn't the Krause/Giles fight have some pretty weird scorecards on top of James taking it in very short notice at MW? I wouldn't put much stock in that one at all tbh. Trevin could definitely play spoiler, but he's such a dumb fighter that I wouldn't be surprised if he let Morales get some mat time just because. I'd probably take the over there if anything, not the best of odds, but it should cover.

I wanted to take Stamman, but he just doesn't have much if his wrestling game can't get going, and Said clearly has the edge on the feet if only because he does more than just tickle you. It might come down to control vs damage, but I can't justify taking Cody even at dog odds.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Im sure most people knew this but I didnt but the Nurmagdemov thats fighting on this card has no relation to habib and the last name only is prob what is making him so juiced

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Dudaev isnt good? Said was very raw back then compared to now too. Ramos isnt chopped liver either....

Dudaev was a good win but it was more than 5 years ago and he should have lost to Scoggins since then. Ramos is decent, but I think Cody is a couple of levels above him.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Pete Rodriguez has some very heavy hands. He has not exactly been fighting elite competition but the 1st round KO is certainly very live.

Play the under

 

[ExitLUPin]

Dudaev was a good win but it was more than 5 years ago and he should have lost to Scoggins since then. Ramos is decent, but I think Cody is a couple of levels above him.

I dont think the Scoggins fight is relevant TBH. Scoggins fights nothing like Cody and the fight was at 125 as well.

 

[spinup]

Thank you for sharing your insight.

I am not sure how many of Ganes fights you have seen but I have noticed he very rarely fights from mid-range. He seems to only throw punches from close-range and only kick from long-range.

In theory, wouldn't that make it difficult for Ngannou to load up and land something massive since his big shots are always coming from mid-range? Gane has a pronounced speed advantage, in addition to being an extremely risk averse fighter, so wouldn't this make closing the distance very difficult for Ngannou?

Thanks

He fought at mid-range against Volkov (6'7", 80" reach), and to some degree against Mayes (6'6", 81" reach). His two biggest opponents.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Topuria now -600 against Jourdain on a week's notice..... I can't be the only one thinking those odds are insane? Topuria is talented af but goddamn

 

[BigSteve]

Topuria now -600 against Jourdain on a week's notice..... I can't be the only one thinking those odds are insane? Topuria is talented af but goddamn

for sure they are. Jordain would be his best win

 

[DonQ94]

Topuria now -600 against Jourdain on a week's notice..... I can't be the only one thinking those odds are insane? Topuria is talented af but goddamn

I agree, his hype is very much baked into the line. However, I do think it could be over quick once it hits the ground.

 

[BigSteve]

2c on this card, hopefully, the fights don't all fall apart:

Jack Della/Rodriguez: Jack Della is probably the best young talent coming out of Australia atm. He is rapidly improving from fight to fight, but his odds are unplayable to me. Rodriguez is a bit of a mystery, I watched 3 of his amateur fights just so I can see him go past the first and face some adversity. I have seen him get ground out but he was 19 years old. He also got subbed in under 2 minutes 2 years ago. Jack could potentially exploit that because he is also a good grappler but Rodriguez could have fixed that hole in the last two years. The guy hits like a truck though, and his boxing ain't too shabby. Both guys are making their debut and are the same age. Jack used to be known on the Australian regionals as a slow starter, he would always get tagged early and then drown his opponent with pressure and volume. He has fixed that recently and his boxing is looking extra sharp. The unders are juiced badly in this fight, I will have some spare change on Rodriguez by finish for fun.

Jasmine/Hansen: These odds seem a bit wide to me. Hansen is still young and green, and she is moving up in weight against a big girl who seems to have a physical advantage. Jasmine is pretty reliable to clinch and has a strong body lock, Hansen has lost fights in the past due to being stuck on the bottom. Whether it's due to her getting reversed, falling off going for a sub, or getting taken down herself. She gave up some dominant positions in a winning fight two fights ago against Pirosin as well. I watched almost every single Jasmine fight and barely saw anyone go for takedowns on her. I have seen her get swept by a tiny Elise Read, and pull guard against a 5-5 fighter which is worrying. Hansen will attempt takedowns throughout the fight even though her wrestling ain't the greatest. Even when she gets deep on the hips, she doesn't have great penetration. Jasmine does have horrendous cardio though, she becomes a zombie and loses round 3 at a very high clip. Hansen has 5 round 3 finishes out of 7 wins...I feel a sprinkle coming on. Otherwise I have too many questions to play anything pre-fight. Will potentially live bet Hansen if she loses first.

Gravely/Oliveira: Gravely should win this fight, shame about the odds. Oliveira barely squeaked past Alday who is not a great fighter. He is an aggressive Thai fighter who doesn't have one-shot power and looks to occasionally wrestle. His takedown defense ain't great and he mostly relies on his guillotine which he has actually hit a shit load of time on the regionals. Gravely has been submitted a bunch of times, but all those guys are a higher lvl than Oliveira. Oliveiras last loss was to Farias who is a decent grappler, he grounded him for 3 rounds and kept advancing position to mount. Gravley is underrated in my opinion, he is a lil tank. He has great wrestling that he can use for 3 rounds, and big power too. He is a lil wild, but his last fight was the first time he has been KOed, chin usually holds up. I am more worried about him getting meme subbed, Oliveira will either snag a guillotine again or go airborne once he grabs that neck. I will hopefully multi up Gravley with someone else.

Frevola/Valdez: This is a great matchup, I actually can't believe how similar these fighters are. Tale of the tape is almost identical, both are tough scrapers who break opponents down with grappling and pressure and throw leather on the feet. Both get sloppy and very hittable as well. Frevola gets dropped and hurt in almost every fight, but recovers like crazy. Valdez finishes a lot of his opponents as soon as he takes them down, but they are pretty low level. In his 2019 fight against Portales, he got hurt and almost choked out in the first, got hurt again in the second, and kept getting reversed and losing position. He was joking around on his stool in between rounds, and then came out in the third and broke and finished his opponent who was 2-0 up. In his contender series fight, he had an absolute war against White who is a can crusher from the Alaska scene. When he couldn't get the takedown he started brawling and got hurt multiple times and was almost put out by a very low lvl guy. He then dropped and finished him in the second, the guy is a savage. Part of me thinks Frevola could be a lvl up and will make this fight look easy, but at the end of the day its still Frevola, and I cant lay the -200 on him against anyone. I thought about the under, but I could see it being 3 round grind fest as both guys could invite that kind of fight. Surprisingly don't have anything in this fight after tape, hopefully we get a live bet spot and some questions answered about Valdez.

 

[Guld]

My eval so far:

Jourdain/Topuria: I was slightly leaning Topuria, but I never once thought it was a sure thing. In fact I've actually gone back and forth on this one a couple of times. Then I saw those ridiculous odds! haha. Definitely throwing a sprinkle on Jourdain. He looked really good in his last outing, and is fighting like he's got something to prove. I like that a lot. To be fair I might have put a sprinkle on him regardless of the good odds because of that mindset he's in right now.

Fig/Moreno: Moreno again. Possibly another stoppage. Fig is even older and is trying for an even earlier weight cut. Moreno already had a huge chin advantage, but I have a feeling Fig's might be cracked for good (he really needs to move up a weight category). Fig might try a new gameplan for a this one, but coming up with successful new tactics at his age are unlikely. Besides, Moreno has proven that he can adapt and adjust on the fly, and it feels like it's his fight to lose.

Gane/Ngannou: I've been rewatching footage of their recent fights and I still heavily favor Gane (more than ever). Even in Ngannou's last two wins there were glaring holes in his game. I still think Francis can destroy most of the HW division because 90% of the division is incapable of taking advantages of those holes, or weathering his power. Gane is not just part of that remaining 10%, he's the very top of that 10%. Gane has the physicality to hold his own with Ngannou, and he has the tactics/technique to take advantages of those holes in Francis' game. Outside of a fluke power strike that happens to land just right, I don't see Francis having any real success in this fight. Even if he tries to play the leg kick game, or the grapple game, or the clinch game, he'll only have success for 1-2 mins tops before he gasses hard and Gane makes him pay hard. Maybe that 1-2 mins will be enough for Francis, but I highly doubt it.

 

[lefontes]

Any like the Overs Barcelos x Henry?

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Topuria now -600 against Jourdain on a week's notice..... I can't be the only one thinking those odds are insane? Topuria is talented af but goddamn

I don't see much of a path to victory for Jourdain tbh. I don't think I'd take Ilia at those odds but he has the choice to take the fight where he wants to and probably wins either on the feet or on the ground anyway.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

2c on this card, hopefully, the fights don't all fall apart:

Jack Della/Rodriguez: Jack Della is probably the best young talent coming out of Australia atm. He is rapidly improving from fight to fight, but his odds are unplayable to me. Rodriguez is a bit of a mystery, I watched 3 of his amateur fights just so I can see him go past the first and face some adversity. I have seen him get ground out but he was 19 years old. He also got subbed in under 2 minutes 2 years ago. Jack could potentially exploit that because he is also a good grappler but Rodriguez could have fixed that hole in the last two years. The guy hits like a truck though, and his boxing ain't too shabby. Both guys are making their debut and are the same age. Jack used to be known on the Australian regionals as a slow starter, he would always get tagged early and then drown his opponent with pressure and volume. He has fixed that recently and his boxing is looking extra sharp. The unders are juiced badly in this fight, I will have some spare change on Rodriguez by finish for fun.

Jasmine/Hansen: These odds seem a bit wide to me. Hansen is still young and green, and she is moving up in weight against a big girl who seems to have a physical advantage. Jasmine is pretty reliable to clinch and has a strong body lock, Hansen has lost fights in the past due to being stuck on the bottom. Whether it's due to her getting reversed, falling off going for a sub, or getting taken down herself. She gave up some dominant positions in a winning fight two fights ago against Pirosin as well. I watched almost every single Jasmine fight and barely saw anyone go for takedowns on her. I have seen her get swept by a tiny Elise Read, and pull guard against a 5-5 fighter which is worrying. Hansen will attempt takedowns throughout the fight even though her wrestling ain't the greatest. Even when she gets deep on the hips, she doesn't have great penetration. Jasmine does have horrendous cardio though, she becomes a zombie and loses round 3 at a very high clip. Hansen has 5 round 3 finishes out of 7 wins...I feel a sprinkle coming on. Otherwise I have too many questions to play anything pre-fight. Will potentially live bet Hansen if she loses first.

Gravely/Oliveira: Gravely should win this fight, shame about the odds. Oliveira barely squeaked past Alday who is not a great fighter. He is an aggressive Thai fighter who doesn't have one-shot power and looks to occasionally wrestle. His takedown defense ain't great and he mostly relies on his guillotine which he has actually hit a shit load of time on the regionals. Gravely has been submitted a bunch of times, but all those guys are a higher lvl than Oliveira. Oliveiras last loss was to Farias who is a decent grappler, he grounded him for 3 rounds and kept advancing position to mount. Gravley is underrated in my opinion, he is a lil tank. He has great wrestling that he can use for 3 rounds, and big power too. He is a lil wild, but his last fight was the first time he has been KOed, chin usually holds up. I am more worried about him getting meme subbed, Oliveira will either snag a guillotine again or go airborne once he grabs that neck. I will hopefully multi up Gravley with someone else.

Frevola/Valdez: This is a great matchup, I actually can't believe how similar these fighters are. Tale of the tape is almost identical, both are tough scrapers who break opponents down with grappling and pressure and throw leather on the feet. Both get sloppy and very hittable as well. Frevola gets dropped and hurt in almost every fight, but recovers like crazy. Valdez finishes a lot of his opponents as soon as he takes them down, but they are pretty low level. In his 2019 fight against Portales, he got hurt and almost choked out in the first, got hurt again in the second, and kept getting reversed and losing position. He was joking around on his stool in between rounds, and then came out in the third and broke and finished his opponent who was 2-0 up. In his contender series fight, he had an absolute war against White who is a can crusher from the Alaska scene. When he couldn't get the takedown he started brawling and got hurt multiple times and was almost put out by a very low lvl guy. He then dropped and finished him in the second, the guy is a savage. Part of me thinks Frevola could be a lvl up and will make this fight look easy, but at the end of the day its still Frevola, and I cant lay the -200 on him against anyone. I thought about the under, but I could see it being 3 round grind fest as both guys could invite that kind of fight. Surprisingly don't have anything in this fight after tape, hopefully we get a live bet spot and some questions answered about Valdez.

Just to slightly defend Oliveira on the Farias fight, Ary is more than a decent grappler, he's an IBJFF world champion. I don't think Gravely has that level of grappling.

 

[hargraves32]

IDK if anyone saw it, but Pete Rodriguez has a fight where he fakes a glove touch and then flying knees the guy to the body for a 10 second KO. Also was against an absolute can lmao

 

[BigSteve]

Just to slightly defend Oliveira on the Farias fight, Ary is more than a decent grappler, he's an IBJFF world champion. I don't think Gravely has that level of grappling.

haha yea i know about his credentials, hence why I said 'decent' grappler. Probably should of used a more flattering adjective. Gravley for sure has the better wrestling though but ye his control can let him down sometimes

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Are you guys aware of Morning Kombat's resume review curse? I think everybody they made a resume review for lost their fights (except Canelo). They now made Ngannou resume review.

I was 50/50 on this fight and honestly thought whoever is the underdog is the play, but as I got deeper into tapestudy I'm beginning to lean more and more Gane. I don't think Ngannou's power can level the playingfield on it's own anymore. Last time he faced Stipe, who was worn out from two hard fights with DC (and suffered a clean KO loss before that from the same guy). Not only I belive that his chin was compromised, but independent of that - his defense isn't that good. A lot of fighters, from Ngannou's victims list, have poor defense and/or have issues with durability. Gane does not have any of these problems. I'm not happy about paying minus money on any fight, let alone @ heavyweight, but I agree Gane is the rightful favourite.