UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal

I'm interested in the under 4.5 at plus money in the main. Masvidal has to know he will be grinded If he let's Colby set the pace
 
2020Tracked said:
Did Khabib fight a perfect fight? He just ran at Barboza with no concern for his defence and eventually muscled a takwdown against the fence
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Yes. Thats all that a grappler needs to do against Barboza and he executed it perfectly. It was one of the most dominant 3 round performances in UFC history, one of the only fights I can recall possibly being 30-24. And its hard for me to see mitchell replicating that.
 
I don't really like this card for betting. Its weirdly stacked with 50/50 fights and flakey/inconsistent fighters(Hardy, Holland, Klein, Moroz, Nzechkuwu...) Only confident plays are Covington/Ulanbekov/Nurmagomedov. All three will dominate with their cardio and wrestling(Umar actually seems to be quite good at striking too), very consistent to bet on.
 
Joonc said:
I don't really like this card for betting. Its weirdly stacked with 50/50 fights and flakey/inconsistent fighters(Hardy, Holland, Klein, Moroz, Nzechkuwu...) Only confident plays are Covington/Ulanbekov/Nurmagomedov. All three will dominate with their cardio and wrestling(Umar actually seems to be quite good at striking too), very consistent to bet on.
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I think Jacoby, Turner, spivak , Holland , and Marina Have a 70-80% chance of success. I would rate them as a second tier safe pick.

out of all the dogs i like Klein, Edson and Nicolai. Im skipping the rest. I dont bet main events unless its going to be a 1 round blowout. High ranked fighters like Masvidal are still dangerous.
 
Anyone else feel like cowboy has a decent chance to get it on the ground, and we know how holland is on his back…was kinda thinking cowboy would be a popular dog on this card.

I see holland at -250 and mb it’s just me but initisl feeling was the price should be at least a dollar off. His best path would have to be KO and cowboy hasn’t suffered ko loss since ‘17.
 
Stat_Collector said:
I think Jacoby, Turner, spivak , Holland , and Marina Have a 70-80% chance of success. I would rate them as a second tier safe pick.

out of all the dogs i like Klein, Edson and Nicolai. Im skipping the rest. I dont bet main events unless its going to be a 1 round blowout. High ranked fighters like Masvidal are still dangerous.
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Klein is a dog?? Interesting I just assumed he would be a favorite and automatically dismissed betting him. What are the odds on him?
 
impressivegoal said:
Anyone else feel like cowboy has a decent chance to get it on the ground, and we know how holland is on his back…was kinda thinking cowboy would be a popular dog on this card.

I see holland at -250 and mb it’s just me but initisl feeling was the price should be at least a dollar off. His best path would have to be KO and cowboy hasn’t suffered ko loss since ‘17.
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I feel the same way. Holland is terrible at winning rounds and has been gifted many decisions. He is generally a KO or pass fighter. We have never seen him at this weight class either, it's very possible that he could look like dogshit similarly to Cody Garbrandt's recent venture into flyweight. I just don't trust Kevin Holland especially when he is this juiced just because he opens his mouth a lot.
 
Joonc said:
I feel the same way. Holland is terrible at winning rounds and has been gifted many decisions. He is generally a KO or pass fighter. We have never seen him at this weight class either, it's very possible that he could look like dogshit similarly to Cody Garbrandt's recent venture into flyweight. I just don't trust Kevin Holland especially when he is this juiced just because he opens his mouth a lot.
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Just don't pump too much money on to him. I'm going to mix him in a batch with the other fighters I mentioned plus umar and tagir. What is Alex biggest threat to Holland? Holland only struggles with solid wrestlers like Marvin( who he wobbled in the fourth) and Brunson,Darren which he edged won. Alex is not really that slick to out point Holland , he'll land strikes but Holland will inflict more power and damage. Alex best wins are his subs, I think Holland surviving five rounds with vetori is an indicator that he has solid submission defense. I think Holland gets him out of there early. Even if it goes to a decision, I see Holland leaving Alex face bloodied. Holland has already tasted two five round competition with Marvin and Derek, I don't see Alex reaching the same status as Holland, the ceiling of improvement is greater for him. Alex has looked old in his last couple fights.
 
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Joonc said:
I feel the same way. Holland is terrible at winning rounds and has been gifted many decisions. He is generally a KO or pass fighter. We have never seen him at this weight class either, it's very possible that he could look like dogshit similarly to Cody Garbrandt's recent venture into flyweight. I just don't trust Kevin Holland especially when he is this juiced just because he opens his mouth a lot.
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It's essentially a middleweight vs a lightweight @ welterweight, and Cowboy Oliveira hasn't been able to take a punch for years now.

I'm pretty confident in Holland in this spot, and I easily faded him against Brunson & Vettori, so it's not like I'm some Holland fanboy
 
Post 2 Decision said:
It's essentially a middleweight vs a lightweight @ welterweight, and Cowboy Oliveira hasn't been able to take a punch for years now.

I'm pretty confident in Holland in this spot, and I easily faded him against Brunson & Vettori, so it's not like I'm some Holland fanboy
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Exact same way I feel about this.
A good rule of thumb is that if you are very low on a fighter but you suddenly like them in a spot, there is a very good chance of you being right that it is a good spot. I also had Marvin plus Brunson against Holland, but this time even as a fairly big fav, I think he is slightly underrated due to how he has looked. BC aint Daukaus or Brunson or Vettori. Besides BC may only be 34 but he seems pretty shot, and he does sometimes seem to gas. I think Holland at -400 is more fair here, so a bit of value at his current line. As long as its standing which I think it will be its all Holland, and I think even if gets taken down, he will survive, BC will gas and Holland might get a KO in round 2 or 3.
 
Stat_Collector said:
I think Jacoby, Turner, spivak , Holland , and Marina Have a 70-80% chance of success. I would rate them as a second tier safe pick.

out of all the dogs i like Klein, Edson and Nicolai. Im skipping the rest. I dont bet main events unless its going to be a 1 round blowout. High ranked fighters like Masvidal are still dangerous.
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Spivak is dogshit. Went life and death with grandpa oleinik. I would never pay that price on spivak.
 
I just had a look at this card.
What is with these odds? Haha
Umar -700?
Holland -275?
Fiz -250?
Covington -350?

Like, don't get me wrong, I do favor all of those 4 guys in their respective fights, but not at those crazy odds.
You could try to parlay them as well, but honestly I could easily see Cowboy taking Holland down and getting an effortless sub, and as much as I like Fiz, if DosAnjos can weather the storm and keep the pace/pressure on then he could potentially win this since it's a 5 rounder.
Also, I don't trust Covington at those odds with somebody he is clearly friends with outside of the cage. That fight has sus ending/controvery written all over it.
Might be some great potential if you sprinkle a bit on the dogs though.
Good luck everyone!
 
Guld said:
I just had a look at this card.
What is with these odds? Haha
Umar -700?
Holland -275?
Fiz -250?
Covington -350?

Like, don't get me wrong, I do favor all of those 4 guys in their respective fights, but not at those crazy odds.
You could try to parlay them as well, but honestly I could easily see Cowboy taking Holland down and getting an effortless sub, and as much as I like Fiz, if DosAnjos can weather the storm and keep the pace/pressure on then he could potentially win this since it's a 5 rounder.
Also, I don't trust Covington at those odds with somebody he is clearly friends with outside of the cage. That fight has sus ending/controvery written all over it.
Might be some great potential if you sprinkle a bit on the dogs though.
Good luck everyone!
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why do you think Colby and Jorge are still friends?
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
why do you think Colby and Jorge are still friends?
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must be the best kept secret in the world considering not one single credible source claims that they’re still actually friends

it’s all just mma fans conspiracy theories
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
why do you think Colby and Jorge are still friends?
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Even if they aren't "friends" now, they definitely were at one point. I've watched enough pro wrestling to know not to fall for the Pro-Wrestling type feuds/animosity, and Colby has been 100% gimmick for years now.
I feel it's about as legit as the Colby vs Usman "feud". There might be a touch of hurt feelings, but they are just trying to amp it up for sales/marketing.
Maybe the fight will be 100% legit, and maybe there are actually feelings behind it as well, I'm just saying that I wouldn't bet on it.
 
I’m looking at putting money on Tim Elliott? Am I crazy?
 
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