UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3

[Jinx_AA]

I agree with other bets but what's Luana Carolina's path to victory? She was outclassed and viciously KO'd by Molly who is pretty meh overall. Wood old but only lost to higher level fighters.

wood is just so so bad …. Her strikes have absolutely nothing on them and she quits .

Molly hits hard … she’s bad , but she hits much much harder then wood

Obviously that’s a long shot small bet parlay …. But I like Luana at dog odds value over a pathetic wood …. Her path is it’s gunna be a purely standup fight and I think she hits harder and will out strike her …. Neither belong in the ufc but wood is 100% shot and done .

 

[Hellowhosthat]

wood is just so so bad …. Her strikes have absolutely nothing on them and she quits .

Molly hits hard … she’s bad , but she hits much much harder then wood

Obviously that’s a long shot small bet parlay …. But I like Luana at dog odds value over a pathetic wood …. Her path is it’s gunna be a purely standup fight and I think she hits harder and will out strike her …. Neither belong in the ufc but wood is 100% shot and done .

Yeah I don't think her head is really in the game anymore. She's just on a decent contract and is fighting it out imo. I wouldn't back her at all.

 

[Bakayoko]

fiziev is as close as one can be …. Anyone who’s a bettor should jump on him before his line moves to -400

You think he's gonna jump to -400,why?If anything casuals know Gaethje more than Fiziev and I don't think sharps are seeing such hugh value there.I think the line Will stay the same or get closer.The home favorites lines will move to being more juiced(Duncan,Shore,Patterson,Hadley...

 

[mkess101]

You think he's gonna jump to -400,why?If anything casuals know Gaethje more than Fiziev and I don't think sharps are seeing such hugh value there.I think the line Will stay the same or get closer.The home favorites lines will move to being more juiced(Duncan,Shore,Patterson,Hadley...

Agree. I cap Fisiev -300 or more, but I very much doubt the betting public will pile on him.

 

[Jinx_AA]

You think he's gonna jump to -400,why?If anything casuals know Gaethje more than Fiziev and I don't think sharps are seeing such hugh value there.I think the line Will stay the same or get closer.The home favorites lines will move to being more juiced(Duncan,Shore,Patterson,Hadley...

you’re probably right ….. in my head he’s a 4-1 or 5-1 favorite …gaethe hasn’t KOd anyone in years - everyone knows he just throws hard leg kicks and looping uppercuts - other then a terrible Ferguson he hasn’t finished anyone in forever - and that took him 5 rounds and he’s certainly not gunna outpoint fiziev ….. so just see no path at all for gaethe … I think it’s gunna be a very bad night for him and it’s very obvious .

but you’re right - casuals don’t know fiziev is levels above him in striking .

it just seems so clear cut …. And every breakdown I’ve seen has fiziev doing it easily …. Usually bettors watch YouTube videos or read up … and if you’re watching or reading - all you see is fiziev will kill gaethe .

 

[PuertoRican]

I'll be in Las Vegas for this card.

If any of you will be there, send me a private message and we can meet up and watch the fights.

Remember that this card starts at 10am PT / 1pm ET.

 

[Wagner Azevedo]

I like Edwards at dog odds.
Rocky won R1 with a back take and landed a huge kick to finish the fight on R5. Even is Usman survived that would be a 10-8 round and a draw.
This time he will be fighting at home, won't be fighting at altitude (IMO it helps him since Usman cardio is always great) and is probably more confident on himself. Of course Usman could just grapplefuck him for 5 rounds, but Edwards Showed that he can somewhat match Usman when he's fresh at least.
Usman is also coming from a huge KO loss and is almost 36 years old. Not a great combination in my book.
Even if Usman easily dominates Edwards (I doubt he does) I'm happy not to pay Juice on the older guy coming from a KO. And if someones is betting Usman I think his decision line should be the better play.

I Also like Fiziev. He's a nightmare matchup for Gaethje IMO. Brawlers like Gaethje usually have a tough time against a highly polished striker. It doesn't help that Gaethje has been rocked and dropped basically in all his fights in the UFC.

 

[Benny 97]

I will play 1u on Edwards by SUB. Just a gut feeling

 

[StewDogg11]

you’re probably right ….. in my head he’s a 4-1 or 5-1 favorite …gaethe hasn’t KOd anyone in years - everyone knows he just throws hard leg kicks and looping uppercuts - other then a terrible Ferguson he hasn’t finished anyone in forever - and that took him 5 rounds and he’s certainly not gunna outpoint fiziev ….. so just see no path at all for gaethe … I think it’s gunna be a very bad night for him and it’s very obvious .

but you’re right - casuals don’t know fiziev is levels above him in striking .

it just seems so clear cut …. And every breakdown I’ve seen has fiziev doing it easily …. Usually bettors watch YouTube videos or read up … and if you’re watching or reading - all you see is fiziev will kill gaethe .

Gaethje made Ferguson look old over night. No one was saying Ferguson was done before that fight and he was a big favorite. That’s revisionist history.

 

[Benny 97]

you’re probably right ….. in my head he’s a 4-1 or 5-1 favorite …gaethe hasn’t KOd anyone in years - everyone knows he just throws hard leg kicks and looping uppercuts - other then a terrible Ferguson he hasn’t finished anyone in forever - and that took him 5 rounds and he’s certainly not gunna outpoint fiziev ….. so just see no path at all for gaethe … I think it’s gunna be a very bad night for him and it’s very obvious .

but you’re right - casuals don’t know fiziev is levels above him in striking .

it just seems so clear cut …. And every breakdown I’ve seen has fiziev doing it easily …. Usually bettors watch YouTube videos or read up … and if you’re watching or reading - all you see is fiziev will kill gaethe .

Gaethje made the decomposing corpse of Tony look like Roberto Duran. #neverforget

 

[Hellowhosthat]

View attachment 973651
Gaethje made the decomposing corpse of Tony look like Roberto Duran. #neverforget

Gaethje wrecked Tony, that fight ended Tony's career. He hasn't looked a tenth of the fighter since being in there with Gaethje.

 

[Jinx_AA]

Gaethje made Ferguson look old over night. No one was saying Ferguson was done before that fight and he was a big favorite. That’s revisionist history.

feeguson was getting beat in every fight until finding Hail Marys on the ground …. Feeguson wasn’t exactly outstriking people

The corpse of Pettis dropped him and had him doing summersuakts on the ground

Kevin Fkn lee had him dead to rights before getting subbed


I don’t think I’d favor gaethe over any top 10 fighter - definitely not over a better striker

 

[Hellowhosthat]

feeguson didn’t look good for fights before that

Pettit and lee both had him dead to rights

They caught him and he came back and won. He was always reckless and got caught at times.

 

[Jinx_AA]

They caught him and he came back and won. He was always reckless and got caught at times.

exactky what gaethe is …. Wreckless …. It works until you start getting caught

and gaethe is now at that point where he’s getting caught and can’t do it anymore

 

[Hellowhosthat]

exactky what gaethe is …. Wreckless …. It works until you start getting caught

and gaethe is now at that point where he’s getting caught and can’t do it anymore

I don't really see much evidence of that personally. I'm not suggesting he'll beat Fiziev, but I haven't seen any evidence that his chin has gone.

 

[StewDogg11]

feeguson was getting beat in every fight until finding Hail Marys on the ground …. Feeguson wasn’t exactly outstriking people

The corpse of Pettis dropped him and had him doing summersuakts on the ground

Kevin Fkn lee had him dead to rights before getting subbed


I don’t think I’d favor gaethe over any top 10 fighter - definitely not over a better striker

Fighting revisionist history with merely remembering things wrong now? Lee absolutely didn’t have Ferguson dead to rights. That fight was 1-1 with Ferguson starting to take over the fight while also holding an already massive cardio edge. Live odds were probably somewhere in the -600 range but yeah Ferguson was “dead to rights”.

 

[Jinx_AA]

I don't really see much evidence of that personally. I'm not suggesting he'll beat Fiziev, but I haven't seen any evidence that his chin has gone.

he’s gotten rocked in every single fight I feel like …. He hasn’t gone out cold …but when you’re getting rocked by jabs - I’m not so sure he can take a punch well anymore .

anyways - I don’t mean to come across aggressive

I’m just very confident

I’ve put my money on it - hopefully my take is right hahaha …. I feel good about it …

 

[Jinx_AA]

Fighting revisionist history with merely remembering things wrong now? Lee absolutely didn’t have Ferguson dead to rights. That fight was 1-1 with Ferguson starting to take over the fight while also holding an already massive cardio edge. Live odds were probably somewhere in the -600 range but yeah Ferguson was “dead to rights”.

feeguson was mounted …. Not sure there’s a more dominating position one can be in …

You like gaethes chances - I get it

I like fiziev a lot here - I feel good about it …. I don’t need to get in a pissing contest over it … I’ve said enough I’ll let fiziev do the rest

I’ve put my money on it with what my eye test tells me …. We’ll see what happens

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

he’s gotten rocked in every single fight I feel like …. He hasn’t gone out cold …but when you’re getting rocked by jabs - I’m not so sure he can take a punch well anymore .

anyways - I don’t mean to come across aggressive

I’m just very confident

I’ve put my money on it - hopefully my take is right hahaha …. I feel good about it …

Did you watch his fight Michael chandler lol?

 

[StewDogg11]

feeguson was mounted …. Not sure there’s a more dominating position one can be in …

You like gaethes chances - I get it

I like fiziev a lot here - I feel good about it …. I don’t need to get in a pissing contest over it … I’ve said enough I’ll let fiziev do the rest

I’ve put my money on it with what my eye test tells me …. We’ll see what happens

I’ve never said I liked Gaethje’s chances but you supporting your stance with blatantly false information is concerning. Okay he got mounted and lost the first round but then dominated from then on doesn’t equal Ferguson being “dead to rights”. It’s not like Ferguson was ever in danger of being stopped. Literally everyone knew Lee would probably win the first and maybe even the second round before Ferguson took over.