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News Junior Tafa vs Karl Williams is set for March 23

Who wins?

  • Total voters
    27
Glanced at my screen and thought title said 'Katt Williams' lol
 
Thesnake101 said:
Don't think he'd be able to improve that fast enough to stop Karl honestly.

Another boring win for Williams most likely.
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Yeah Williams is boring but incredibly strong and good at just launching bigger men to rhe mat repeatedly. Decent cardio too. This will look like the Tafa/Usman fight on steroids. Williams is very adept at what he does and what he does negates people like Tafa.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Don't think he'd be able to improve that fast enough to stop Karl honestly.

Another boring win for Williams most likely.
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I went with Tafa but this is the most probable outcome.williams will be shooting the whole fight
 
Gonna root for Williams here, but there are a lot of potential pitfalls for him here:

1.) Tafa has had a fair amount of time to shore up his TDD. He officially stuffed Porter's sole attempt, but a fence-grab played a role in that... Parker may have gotten him down otherwise so it's hard to tell how much he's actually improved, but I'm sure he's working on it in the gym.

2.) Williams is not a particularly big Heavyweight. He tends to weigh in somewhere between ~220-240 pounds and actually has just as much experience (maybe more) fighting at 205 as he does at HW. While I think Williams is very athletic and might actually be the superior technical MMA wrestler in terms of timing his entries and whatnot compared to Mo who was able stifle Junior... Usman is also a naturally bigger, stronger man and that can pay dividends at times. Williams might not have the physicality to replicate what Mo did.

3.) Williams looked really bad against Chase Sherman, who should have been a stylistically favorable match-up for him on paper: one-dimensional kickboxer with unremarkable power and little grappling acumen to speak of. There are a few parallels from that fight which we can draw to this one. Williams' grappling attack largely failed to materialize against Chase despite looking dominant in his previous two performances. As a result, it became a fight where Karl had to use the theoretical threat of the takedown in order to set up his (admittedly very good) stiff jab and occasional hooks to go tit-for-tat against Sherman's calf kicks. Speaking of which, good lord Karl Williams has no idea how to check kicks despite being an ATT ATL product. He looked like he was about to get chopped down out there and was eating some nasty shots at times, though he managed to eke out a greasy Split Decision.

This is all cause for concern because Tafa is a vastly more dangerous striker than Sherman. He may not have anywhere near Chase's sheer level of output... but everything Junior throws has fight-ending intentions, he's got good timing & accuracy, and he is quite dynamic with his shot selection. Hell, I think most people remember the Usman fight incorrectly. It wasn't like he got dominated with no recourse or offense at all throughout the entire 15 minutes. While it was by no means a good look for him, Tafa rocked Mo bad on at least a couple of occasions by timing big counters on him during his entries, but unfortunately for him Usman was able to wrestle through the adversity.

I know Karl's chin has held up so far throughout his MMA career, but I really don't think he would be able to implement his boxing against Tafa as a Plan B at all like he's been able to do previously. If his offensive wrestling fails against a powerful dude in Junior who doesn't mind grabbing the cage and throwing knees and uppercuts and shit in close, Karl is going to get hurt bad. I'll pick Williams to grind out a Decision because I think when he's switched on he is a very solid chain-wrestler with serviceable hands who can drive a good 15-minute pace. Meanwhile I haven't seen enough of Tafa to know what improvements he has made... but I won't be surprised if Junior shucks Karl off before chopping him down and landing something nasty.
 
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Safton said:
3.) Williams looked really bad against Chase Sherman, who should have been a stylistically favorable match-up for him on paper: one-dimensional kickboxer with unremarkable power and little grappling to speak of. Williams' grappling failed to materialize here for the most part despite looking dominant in his previous two performances. As a result, it became a fight where Karl had to use the threat of the takedown in order to set up his (admittedly very good) jab and occasional power punches to go tit-for-tat against Chase's calf kicks. Speaking of which, good lord Karl Williams has no idea how to check kicks. He looked like he was about to get chopped down out there and was eating some nasty shots, despite eking out a greasy Split Decision.
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I think the Sherman fight was a poor performance too, but I'll write off as a one off for the time being just on the strength of his outwrestling of Jimmy Lawson.

Also have to keep in mind that Chase actually has a 74% TDD rate, so despite having a poor ground game, it's not that easy to get him down there. Think Karl's biggest issue was how predictable he was with his attempts, but he might be good enough to still force Tafa down by simply picking him up and throwing him around.

I hope I'm wrong though, Tafa is the more entertaining guy by far.
 
Thesnake101 said:
I think the Sherman fight was a poor performance too, but I'll write off as a one off for the time being just on the strength of his outwrestling of Jimmy Lawson.

Also have to keep in mind that Chase actually has a 74% TDD rate, so despite having a poor ground game, it's not that easy to get him down there. Think Karl's biggest issue was how predictable he was with his attempts, but he might be good enough to still force Tafa down by simply picking him up and throwing him around.

I hope I'm wrong though, Tafa is the more entertaining guy by far.
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I don't actually know how much stock I put in the Lawson win. I mean, for sure, I get it -- it sounds great as a narrative. "He outwrestled Bo Nickal's Heavyweight teammate, another legendary Penn State D1 All-American and the much bigger man to boot!" But, like... I am not sold on Lawson as an MMA wrestler, much less a well-rounded fighter. Take a look at his record and the way he fights. Lawson is a can-crusher who walks down low-level guys and clubs them with wild haymakers early in fights. He doesn't even look all that interested in wrestling in his bouts from what I can tell. I don't know if the skillset he had on the mats has translated to the cage. He beat 5-4 Marino Eatman with GnP, but that was because he made Eatman uncomfortable with his early striking pressure to the point that Marino shot a bum-ass takedown on him, got reversed and tossed to the mat, and subsequently finished. That's literally the only grappling I've ever seen from him. Meanwhile, Williams had like twice as much MMA experience, if not more, as Lawson going into their bout. He had also fought some slightly stiffer competition. So while I am impressed by Karl's ability to ragdoll a bigger, stronger man with the ease he did -- especially the one who possesses Lawson's prodigious wrestling credentials -- I must also acknowledge that Jimmy has not exactly shown himself to be a mat wizard in an MMA context.

As for Chase, that TDD rating must be kept in context. He had a long tenure with the UFC (well, technically two tenures) for someone with such a limited skillset and along the way that stat got padded by wrestling phenoms such as Walt Harris, Damian Grabowski, Justin Willis, and the illustrious Parker Porter shooting TDs on him -- oftentimes multiple TDs. Of those, it's actually worth noting that Justin Willis (lmfao) and Porter both actually succeeded in getting him down at some point and both men also beat him down the stretch. Looking past that, whenever someone with a modicum of offensive grappling talent came in with a dedicated intention of grounding Sherman and finishing him on the mat... they did so. Collier -- who was literally a fat, bloated Middleweight who decided that cutting weight is for suckers -- took him down and choked him out in the first round. Romanov tossed him around like a small child before snatching up a keylock in the first. Sakai got tired of going tit-for-tat with him on the feet for 2.5 rounds, so he just dominated him in the clinch before tripping him to the mat and finishing him with GnP in Rd 3. Williams is the first guy who is ostensibly a dominant primary grappler... yet struggled so badly to outgrapple Chase. It's just not a good look is all. I'm willing to let it slide as an off-night or perhaps Chase turning a corner and figuring some things out too late in his game the same way Jamie Pickett sorta did with his own defensive grappling, but all things considered it's definitely a big red flag in my eyes.

I'll be rooting for Williams. I like this recent batch of dudes who are over-performing against low-level Heavyweights solely by understanding what a jab is and being able to wrestle at a high school JV level, lmao. That and he's also my hometown guy alongside Durden. Tafa is fun and will put on fun fights so I hope he sticks around for some time yet (maybe to fight Robelis), but that fence-grab against Porter was meh. HW rarely lacks for KO artists, but well-rounded dudes in a weak division are the guys I always like seeing do well... even if they do occasionally put on a snoozer.
 
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Mickey Mick said:
Tafa by KO I think.

Karl Williams looks like a dead ringer for Big Baby on the heavyweight season of Ultimate fighter, the dude who fought Shaub and was KO’d by Mitrione.
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Marcus "The Darkness" Jones
If the guy started earlier, he would have been an absolute monster. Was my dark horse pick for the season to upset Roy till I realized he had no chin. 6'6", natural 265er, stupid power, could have been a star in a different timeline, had he started training in his physical prime instead of his late 30s.
20091206112306_IMG_0487.JPG
 
Safton said:
I don't actually know how much stock I put in the Lawson win. I mean, for sure, I get it -- it sounds great as a narrative. "He outwrestled Bo Nickal's Heavyweight teammate, another legendary Penn State D1 All-American and the much bigger man to boot!" But, like... I am not sold on Lawson as an MMA wrestler, much less a well-rounded fighter. Take a look at his record and the way he fights. Lawson is a can-crusher who walks down low-level guys and clubs them with wild haymakers early in fights. He doesn't even look all that interested in wrestling in his bouts from what I can tell. I don't know if the skillset he had on the mats has translated to the cage. He beat 5-4 Marino Eatman with GnP, but that was because he made Eatman uncomfortable with his early striking pressure to the point that Marino shot a bum-ass takedown on him, got reversed and tossed to the mat, and subsequently finished. That's literally the only grappling I've ever seen from him. Meanwhile, Williams had like twice as much MMA experience, if not more, as Lawson going into their bout. He had also fought some slightly stiffer competition. So while I am impressed by Karl's ability to ragdoll a bigger, stronger man with the ease he did -- especially the one who possesses Lawson's prodigious wrestling credentials -- I must also acknowledge that Jimmy has not exactly shown himself to be a mat wizard in an MMA context.

As for Chase, that TDD rating must be kept in context. He had a long tenure with the UFC (well, technically two tenures) for someone with such a limited skillset and along the way that stat got padded by wrestling phenoms such as Walt Harris, Damian Grabowski, Justin Willis, and the illustrious Parker Porter shooting TDs on him -- oftentimes multiple TDs. Of those, it's actually worth noting that Justin Willis (lmfao) and Porter both actually succeeded in getting him down at some point and both men also beat him down the stretch. Looking past that, whenever someone with a modicum of offensive grappling talent came in with a dedicated intention of grounding Sherman and finishing him on the mat... they did so. Collier -- who was literally a fat, bloated Middleweight who decided that cutting weight is for suckers -- took him down and choked him out in the first round. Romanov tossed him around like a small child before snatching up a keylock in the first. Sakai got tired of going tit-for-tat with him on the feet for 2.5 rounds, so he just dominated him in the clinch before tripping him to the mat and finishing him with GnP in Rd 3. Williams is the first guy who is ostensibly a dominant primary grappler... yet struggled so badly to outgrapple Chase. It's just not a good look is all. I'm willing to let it slide as an off-night or perhaps Chase turning a corner and figuring some things out too late in his game the same way Jamie Pickett sorta did with his own defensive grappling, but all things considered it's definitely a big red flag in my eyes.

I'll be rooting for Williams. I like this recent batch of dudes who are over-performing against low-level Heavyweights solely by understanding what a jab is and being able to wrestle at a high school JV level, lmao. That and he's also my hometown guy alongside Durden. Tafa is fun and will put on fun fights so I hope he sticks around for some time yet (maybe to fight Robelis), but that fence-grab against Porter was meh. HW rarely lacks for KO artists, but well-rounded dudes in a weak division are the guys I always like seeing do well... even if they do occasionally put on a snoozer.
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I get that, but the reason I bring those things up is that while Tafa is definitely the most dangerous striker Karl has faced so far, we've seen him leave tons of openings that could lead to takedowns against better guys.

And sure, Mo is a bigger athlete than Karl, but he's a downright mediocre wrestler at best. I mean, he's got an 18% takedown rate for a reason. He's just a buff guy, back in the regionals Don'Tale Mayes shut his game down easily because of it. So as far as keeping TDD rate in context, I genuinely believe that even conceding more than 1 takedown to Mo of all people means you're absolutely lost when it comes to wrestling, which would track given Junior's background.
 
Tafa (and his brother) are one of those guys who has a chance in every fight even though he might be outmatched skill wise.. hes just dangerous and has the power to change any fight instantly.
 
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USA!USA! said:
Tafa (and his brother) are one of those guys who has a chance in every fight even though he might be outmatched skill wise.. he just dangerous and has the power to change any fight instantly.
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That might be true, but don’t forget Junior is a way more skilled and accomplished striker than his brother Justin
 
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