General MMA discussion and future lines - January 2016

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I'm loving these lines:

Tarec Saffiedine vs. Jake Ellenberger under 2½ @ +175 (Bet365)

While Saffiedine might have a lot of decisions under his belt he is definitely a dangerous striker and this will only be enhanced by an Ellenberger who is seemingly in Gray Maynard country when it comes to the chin department. Although it takes little to wobble him these days, Ellenberger is still a very powerful guy and will be an offensive threat himself. I feel this line is a straight up steal at + money, it's probably overly skewed by Saffiedine's decision spree in Strikeforce. Even if Saffiedine fights somewhat safe on the outside with a bunch of legkicks I still favour him to connect with something hard enough to get Ellenberger out of there within 2½.

Tom Breese vs. Keita Nakamura under 1½ @ -116 (Betfair)

A gimme fight for Tom Breese, at almost evens he has a whole 7½ minutes to get Nakamura out of there and it obviously also covers in the rare event that Nakamura gets the early finish. I'm sure Breese ITD will be as unplayable as his ML so I'm happy to get some money in early at this price.


I'm also kicking myself for not going harder on Nick Diaz to fight in 2016 @ +2500. Betfair had that prop up for a bit like a month ago and I only put down like .15u :mad:


Man, idk on those two Unders.

I don't hate either of them.. But saff is not a finisher. He just isn't.. But it pays fairly well.. K-taro is fairly tough. Not sure how likely he is to make it 7.5 mins against breese... I'm sold on breese for sure after his last fight, but idk.

As a rule, btw I hate u2.5's in 3 rounders.. (And u4.5 in 5). I say pay a lil more and take "does not go 3"
 
Man, idk on those two Unders.

I don't hate either of them.. But saff is not a finisher. He just isn't.. But it pays fairly well.. K-taro is fairly tough. Not sure how likely he is to make it 7.5 mins against breese... I'm sold on breese for sure after his last fight, but idk.

As a rule, btw I hate u2.5's in 3 rounders.. (And u4.5 in 5). I say pay a lil more and take "does not go 3"

I agree on Saffiedine not really being a finisher, but I don't think he'll need to look too much for it to get it against Ellenberger. It's mostly a fade on Ellenbergers chin/play on his power. I was actually looking seriously at Saffiedine ITD @ +275 but then saw I could also get Ellenberger ITD (minus the last 2½ minutes) at only 100 points less. Seems solid to me.

For my bookies at least, there are no other lines out, so might be jumping the gun a bit but I could see Breese R1 being @ +100 and Breese ITD being like -250. Might be overrating him a bit but Nakamura was getting boxed up badly by Jingliang Li before the miraculous RNC in his last fight. If Breese looks anything like he did against Pendred he should slaughter him quickly.

Over/Unders have generally been my achilles heal when it comes to MMA betting and your lack of optimism doesn't exactly increase confidence here, but I liked both these enough to put down some early $.
 
i believe RFA 34 odds are about to hit 5d.

think velickovic might open -140 if i'm hearing right, and i like it.
 
AXS Fighting Money Line
RFA 34 - Welterweight 5 rounds - 1STBANK Center - Broomfield, Colorado - AXS

Fri 1/15 3001 Benjamin Smith +100
10:00PM 3002 Bojan Velickovic -140
RFA 34 - Middleweight 3 rounds - 1STBANK Center - Broomfield, Colorado - AXS
Fri 1/15 3101 John Poppie +160
10:00PM 3102 Adam Stroup -210
RFA 34 - Lightweight 3 rounds - 1STBANK Center - Broomfield, Colorado - AXS
Fri 1/15 3201 Cody Mumma +150
10:00PM 3202 Jeremy Kimball -190
RFA 34 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - 1STBANK Center - Broomfield, Colorado - AXS
Fri 1/15 3301 Zac Riley +800
10:00PM 3302 Hugo Viana -1700

yep.

i like velickovic -140. not sure where it's gonna move, but i like it. he's bigger, longer, way better on feet. smith can win if he can get td's going but i like it. 5 rounds is good i think for velickovic.

idk on the others.

lol @ viana line
 
poppie, stroup, kimball, mumma, riley are all colorado natives.

they can be biased there. just for the record.

but i guess four of those guys are fighting eachother, anyway
 
tailed you on velickovic. Yeah Vianna line is pretty wild. I stabbed at riley at +850... hey c'mon shit happens all the time.
 
tailed you on velickovic. Yeah Vianna line is pretty wild. I stabbed at riley at +850... hey c'mon shit happens all the time.

hehe i don't blame ya, just no clue on him, trying to watch stuff on poppie fight etc, i know he was on tuf prelims etc
 
ok, so mumma, like poppie, also fought to get into house on tuf 19.

poppie lost to hillbilly hearththrob. poppie doesn't seem to excel anywhere. some striking, some wrestling..

mumma lost to anton berzin (what happened to this guy?) to get into the house

mumma is a striker mostly, heshould have edge over kimball on the feet. mumma vs kimball is gonna look like two cavemen fighting eachother
 
1.4u velickovic -140
0.33u mumma +150

kinda fading kimball.
 
I mainly either parlay 2-3 props very small for fun, but my serious parlays are fighters i'm confident in whos money lines are too juiced. So for the Boston card, my big parlay is Pettis, Felder, and Boetsch. I really like those 3 to win, but with a $900 playable bankroll at the moment I can't afford to risk the juice on individual plays.
i thought parlays made more money but they actually do not. if u cant make wagers at fight time or you wont be around for it i can see the use. but all the parlay does is reinvest ur first bet and winnings over and over. so instead i have just reinvested my bets my self "as confidence in next bet applys" so instead of locking your parlay down for 3-5 fights. u get more freedom and less risk. lets say u put 5 on first fight and reinvest on second and win that too. 3rd fight u feel slightly less confident about. so put less on that fight. securing that you keep what u make on winning fights. just my insight. not trying to sound like i know all or anything just something that has helped my bankroll out
 
oh man, kimball weighed in 209.4

he was too heavy when he was a 185'er

i'm betting more on mumma
 
12548998_914119665323107_2348680807491764597_n.jpg
 
looking like battle of the caveman lol. guy on right looks more tribal lol. i got him off the looks lol
 
sell me on poppie?

Absolutely not tail worthy, but he only lost to Sanchez (although he was dominated) and Eric Schafer. Cleveland is a decent win as his only losses besides Poppie lately was Montgomery and Bush. I just don't see how Stroup is much better than him.
 
tiny stab on riley +1100 never been that impressed with viana.. predictable fighter with sketchy cardio.. watched a tiny bit of riley in a muay thai fight looks pretty decent very agressive with some decent power
 
Ok, playing

Riley +1100 very small
Mumma +150 smallish
Thinking about playing Poppie
 
Absolutely not tail worthy, but he only lost to Sanchez (although he was dominated) and Eric Schafer. Cleveland is a decent win as his only losses besides Poppie lately was Montgomery and Bush. I just don't see how Stroup is much better than him.
k, ty
 
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