Official UFN 82** Thread

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Is it really realistic to hope for an even better line on Werdum? +125 is pretty great considering how many ways he has to win this fight.
 
Is it really realistic to hope for an even better line on Werdum? +125 is pretty great considering how many ways he has to win this fight.
Gonna bet on Werdum and Werdum by submission (+300). Decent odds.
 
Gonna bet on Werdum and Werdum by submission (+300). Decent odds.
Do you think we will get a better line on Werdum ML? I like sub @ +300. Gotta think Cain is gonna shoot for a takedown atleast once even though he got caught last time.
 
Do you think we will get a better line on Werdum ML? I like sub @ +300. Gotta think Cain is gonna shoot for a takedown atleast once even though he got caught last time.
Its possible (+250 at highest) i guess but dont think the lines are gonna move much (unless we start to hear rumours about one of the fighters being injured or something).

Not sure what else he can do here? Werdum seems to be better standing up and Cain cant get upperhand in the clinch. Taking down Werdum is dangerous for anyone (even a fresh sealevel Cain).
 
Its possible (+250 at highest) i guess but dont think the lines are gonna move much (unless we start to hear rumours about one of the fighters being injured or something).

Not sure what else he can do here? Werdum seems to be better standing up and Cain cant get upperhand in the clinch. Taking down Werdum is dangerous for anyone (even a fresh sealevel Cain).
Agree. I give Cain the boxing advantage but Werdum is for sure the better kickboxer overall.
 
Too many wiki stats. Roy looked the best he has in awhile against Barnett and gave Reem some problems. If his fight IQ wasn't horrendous in that fight, he had Reem in some very bad spots.

A bet on Rosholt is a bet on a guy who gasses worse than Roy and should've been KOd by Timothy Johnson if that dude didn't have the worst fight IQ ever

Both good points. Roy went five with Josh and three with Reem. He actually might have finished Reem if he hadnt gone for the takedown for no reason. He def had Reem hurt. I remember screaming in the bar, "finish him finish him Roy" He didnt.

Rosholt is no Barnett or Reem. I dont see what he brings to this fight against the very experienced and very tough Nelson.
 
idk if i love the o2.5, honestly.. maybe at evens..
 
To be honest I'm not as confident in Werdum as I was in the first fight. His odds were incredible at the time.

I'll bet small on Werdum and possibly medium on over 2.5 rds.

I don't expect to bet much on this card.
 
Jared Rosholt +140 ML

This is my favourite line in a while. I would be hitting Rosholt even at -150. Rosholt pretty comfortably beat Struve which we thought would be closer.

I see Rosholt putting Nelson on the cage or even getting top position for most of the fight. Nelson is just such fade material now and everyone is well aware to watch out for the right hand.

Yeah Nelson can win via 1 punch KO but I think Rosholt by decision here the vast majority of the time... hit it for 3.5u

EDIT: I think Claudia's line will get better come fight time.
 
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got some of that thompson +665 dec just now, love it
 
Jared Rosholt +140 ML

This is my favourite line in a while. I would be hitting Rosholt even at -150. Rosholt pretty comfortably beat Struve which we thought would be closer.

I see Rosholt putting Nelson on the cage or even getting top position for most of the fight. Nelson is just such fade material now and everyone is well aware to watch out for the right hand.

Yeah Nelson can win via 1 punch KO but I think Rosholt by decision here the vast majority of the time... hit it for 3.5u

EDIT: I think Claudia's line will get better come fight time.

i would rather take the over 1.5 and or ros dec i see no way he finishes nelson
 
For some reason I like Werdum DEC +625 and Werdum Split DEC +1395. IIRC, wasn't their last fight pretty close until Cain gassed out? That Mexico City altitude really had an effect on Cain like many others on the card. Even more of an effect on Cain since he's a heavyweight.
 
got some of that thompson +665 dec just now, love it

Yep I hit that yesterday, already down to +500 when I just looked. There might still be a bit of value even down to about +400 or so imo.
 
For some reason I like Werdum DEC +625 and Werdum Split DEC +1395. IIRC, wasn't their last fight pretty close until Cain gassed out? That Mexico City altitude really had an effect on Cain like many others on the card. Even more of an effect on Cain since he's a heavyweight.

Nah it really wasn't that close. Cain landed a few shots but mostly Werdum got the better of the exchanges and beat Cain up pretty badly.

That's why the whole altitude thing might be getting too much attention. Right from the start of the fight Werdum just looked like the better striker. And Cain couldn't outmuscle him and hold him against the cage. Once Cain tired the advantage tilted more but it really was Werdum winning from the start.

I'd buy more into the "Cain underrated Werdum's striking too much" than I would the altitude argument (or at least as much). If you're thinking Cain fares better this time around, that would better explain him losing the striking battle from the first minute of the fight.

I like Werdum at + odds guys, gonna go medium big on his ML.

Also, for those liking Werdum by sub at +300 I'm going to say I think there's better value on Werdum by KO/TKO at +620. Cain shot a desperation takedown and got subbed last time yes. But had he not it's pretty likely Werdum TKO's him there. I think Werdum has become good enough in the clinch to hurt Cain with knees, elbows, etc. Yeah, I think a sub is a LITTLE more likely but not more than twice as likely if Werdum finishes.
 

cain won first round through output and control around octagon but u could tell he was putting 100% energy and burned himself out, werdum did land the harder shots in 1st and cut him up.
second round was all werdum every hit rocked cain, as as the round progressed started to really gas and third round he knew he didn't have anything left so went for the desperation takedowns and got caught.

Im big on werdum I really hope the altitude doesn't make a difference in the next fight but cain looked like shit for this fight dont know any other fighters whose midsection is all flabby like that except roy nelson.
 
After watching the fight again I do feel Werdum just SU won. I expect Werdum to win again but won't make a huge bet on it. I think Werdum has a better build, a bit taller and a bit longer reach. Cain seems really short and stalky next to him.

I don't really like any of the props like TKO or sub as I think the outcome is so high variance here. I do really like the over and parlayed it with the Rothwell over.
 
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