NFL Super Bowl 50 Thread

i wish i could get panthers at -3 half, i dont like betting high spread numbers... probably just going to parlay panthers moneyline with djokovic
 
They are -210 on 5d reduced.

4.2u to win 2u?

1u if Panthers win or .4u if Broncos win

oops forgot to look at reduced. Thanks, yeah gonna end up doing something like this for sure. I would love to let it ride but I can't trust Denver in this situation. Have to get something back, imo.
 
can i just drop this in here...

http://forums.sherdog.com/posts/111129323/

im obviously going to hedge but im not sure how much
You should have just copy and pasted what you said without the spoiler. Here it is:

Nov 30th - "Broncos +1100 to win the SB

Disclaimer: i dont think the Broncos are the favorites to win the SB or anything, but these odds will be very easy to hedge out of come playoff time. They have a top tier defense and their running game has come alive with the injury to Peyton. This is also not an overreaction to their win yesterday, I just feel as though no one other than the Patriots is a better team in the AFC. I'm putting a unit on this. Brock will also only get better with more playing time"



How much did you bet? I doubt you bet this much, but I am going to assume you bet a unit.

I don't know which side you want to be on or if you want a guaranteed profit.

8.8u to win 4u on Panthers

You win 3u on Panthers or 2.2u on Broncos


You can obviously scale this down to whatever you bet
 
Panthers turnovers committed +.5 -150 1.25u

The wording is pretty vague and I probably should have contacted customer service first, but I am pretty sure this prop hits if neither team commit a turnover, the game ends with both teams tied in turnovers, or the Broncos commit more turnovers. I say this because Broncos turnovers committed is -135 and they should be favored to commit more turnovers. The difference between the two props is that I think the +.5 hits because of the first two reasons I listed above.

Anyway...

The Panthers lead the league in turnover differential with a staggering +20. 2nd is +14 and 5th is only +7. Denver is tied for 19th with -4...

The Panthers lead the league in grabbing interceptions with 24 (good thing)

The Broncos lead the league in throwing interceptions with 23 (bad thing)



Obviously there are other factors involved and anything can happen, but I think the odds on this are GREAT. I think it should be 250/-300

I should go contact customer service now lol. If I am right I am adding more to this


EDIT: I contacted them and they are vague as hell. No definite concrete explanation. I'm 95%+ I'm correct on this, so I'm adding .75u. So I'm on this prop -150 to win 1.25u. Thinking about going bigger still... lol
 
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Thomas Davis wins the Super Bowl MVP +40000 (5d future) .025u

I can't believe I'm making this play, but it definitely has value. He has a broken arm that he suffered in the NFC championship game and will most likely play with it. If he remotely has an impactful game that is close or mainly defensive or somehow pulls something off that is clutch or heroic, I can totally see him getting the MVP being magnified by him playing with a broken arm. He is also 1 of the 3 defensive captains on the team (Luke Kuechly and Charles Johnson the other 2). I mean come on... If a guy with a broken arm pulls off some impactful/clutch/heroic shit in a Super Bowl, you know he's being considered for MVP...

With that said, it's possible he might not play at all or a lot and he could completely suck because of his broken arm, but I am taking a shot with $2.50 for $1000
 
Thomas Davis wins the Super Bowl MVP +40000 (5d future) .025u

I can't believe I'm making this play, but it definitely has value. He has a broken arm that he suffered in the NFC championship game and will most likely play with it. If he remotely has an impactful game that is close or mainly defensive or somehow pulls something off that is clutch or heroic, I can totally see him getting the MVP being magnified by him playing with a broken arm. He is also 1 of the 3 defensive captains on the team (Luke Kuechly and Charles Johnson the other 2). I mean come on... If a guy with a broken arm pulls off some impactful/clutch/heroic shit in a Super Bowl, you know he's being considered for MVP...

With that said, it's possible he might not play at all or a lot and he could completely suck because of his broken arm, but I am taking a shot with $2.50 for $1000
A broken arm?! Jesus if that isn't a sign these dudes are on some serious roids......
 
highly doubt he even makes it to the game honestly. i mean, what kind of doctor would allow that less than two weeks removed from surgery
 
highly doubt he even makes it to the game honestly. i mean, what kind of doctor would allow that less than two weeks removed from surgery
I wouldn't be surprised at all if he didn't play. I was just making the case for if he did play
 
To play a football game two weeks after suffering a broken arm, you have to be on an addicting level of painkillers lol that shit just aint right
 
I wouldn't be surprised at all if he didn't play. I was just making the case for if he did play
no i get what you mean. and i agree that itd be a nice story for him to win MVP if he makes a big play. why not at those odds. even outside of his injury, dude is one of the best guys off the field
 
just to keep the conversation going on MVP props i think Josh Norman at +2000 has good value. Peyton's arm strength has obviously regressed but he's done a good job of covering it up by throwing quick passes to the outside or intermediate throws to the middle of the field. If he throws the ball outside of the numbers, it ball definitely hangs in the air longer than he wants it to. Josh Norman is a very aggressive corner who can def pick one of those passes off and take it to the house. Peyton has been a game manager in recent games so I expect him to play it safe and avoid those throws, but if the running game isnt working and the Broncos fall behind, he might not have a choice but to try and shoulder the burden of making a comeback in his final game

edit: Emmanuel Sanders is +1800 too. not bad considering he might be getting a lot of Peyton's attention if Norman is covering DT. I think i actually like that better than the Norman prop lol
 
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just to keep the conversation going on MVP props i think Josh Norman at +2000 has good value. Peyton's arm strength has obviously regressed but he's done a good job of covering it up by throwing quick passes to the outside or intermediate throws to the middle of the field. If he throws the ball outside of the numbers, it ball definitely hangs in the air longer than he wants it to. Josh Norman is a very aggressive corner who can def pick one of those passes off and take it to the house. Peyton has been a game manager in recent games so I expect him to play it safe and avoid those throws, but if the running game isnt working and the Broncos fall behind, he might not have a choice but to try and shoulder the burden of making a comeback in his final game

edit: Emmanuel Sanders is +1800 too. not bad considering he might be getting a lot of Peyton's attention if Norman is covering DT. I think i actually like that better than the Norman prop lol
Totally agree with the Josh Norman part. I already have him at +10000. By the way, what book are you using? Both books I'm looking at pretty much have 2x better odds than both of those plays

I just put down .05u on Brock Osweiler to win the Super Bowl MVP +8000. Basically in this scenario of Manning stinking it up, and Brock comes in and wins the game
 
Totally agree with the Josh Norman part. I already have him at +10000. By the way, what book are you using? Both books I'm looking at pretty much have 2x better odds than both of those plays

I just put down .05u on Brock Osweiler to win the Super Bowl MVP +8000. Basically in this scenario of Manning stinking it up, and Brock comes in and wins the game
really? damn lucky. i use a small local book unfortunately

and just for argument's sake, do you think its possible that the broncos would bench manning if he's stinking? i feel like thatd be such a slap in the face in his final game haha
 
really? damn lucky. i use a small local book unfortunately
Ah =/. Alright. At least it's probably easier to deal with regarding other issues like depositing and cashing out
 
Any scoreless quarter +270 .5u

Highest scoring quarter is not second-quarter -180 .25u

Yardage of longest field goal made Over 44.5 -110 .5u

Both teams make a 33+ yard field goal +110 .5u





Okay, I don't feel like doing a write up for each of these props, so I am just going to do a short summary.


Both have good defenses

Will most likely be a low-scoring-ish game

Both field-goal kickers were tied for 5th with most field goals made

Both field-goal kickers are easily capable of making 50+ yard field goals

Both field-goal kickers should have opportunities and what should be a defensive, low-scoring game


By the way,

Neither kicker misses an extra point -360 is good parlay fodder, IMO
 
really? damn lucky. i use a small local book unfortunately

and just for argument's sake, do you think its possible that the broncos would bench manning if he's stinking? i feel like thatd be such a slap in the face in his final game haha
Only if he threw like 2-3 interceptions in the first half. It also includes a Manning game ending injury which is totally possible
 
Neither team 3 straight scores +180 .5u

I think this has a great shot at hitting. However, like some of you might have noticed, I do not bet as much on non-MMA sports/events compared to MMA fights

This is +165 right now on 5d. I must be interpreting this wrong b/c I am surprised at the odds. You win if one team does not score on three consecutive possessions? If they kick 2 field goals for example and then punt the ball on their next possession, it starts back over at 0? How can a team scoring on three consecutive possessions without punting or turning the ball over be favored with these 2 defenses, I am surprised it happens enough in any football game disregard the quality of the 2 defenses involved to be this high of + odds. This also doesn't say anything about the other team scoring, if the other team scores does this negate the 3 "straight" times for the other team? I believe I am lost.
 
This is +165 right now on 5d. I must be interpreting this wrong b/c I am surprised at the odds. You win if one team does not score on three consecutive possessions? If they kick 2 field goals for example and then punt the ball on their next possession, it starts back over at 0? How can a team scoring on three consecutive possessions without punting or turning the ball over be favored with these 2 defenses, I am surprised it happens enough in any football game disregard the quality of the 2 defenses involved to be this high of + odds. This also doesn't say anything about the other team scoring, if the other team scores does this negate the 3 "straight" times for the other team? I believe I am lost.
haha Yeah you're lost. Don't worry though. They have the worst wording. I get confused a lot on their props as well.

Basically, if either team scores 3 times straight without the other team scoring this prop loses (3 unanswered scores). It doesn't necessarily have to be 3 straight possessions

This is how I interpret it, at least
 
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