ufn 82Risk: 1,597.99
Thompson +200: 50 for 100 / Hendricks
rosholt +130: 100 for 130 / O1.5: 62.50 for 50 / nelson DEC: 25 for 248.75
OSP-feijao
makovsky +3.5: 50 for 80 / Benavidez
cirkunov-nicholson
pyle no scorecards: 108 for 100 / NOT spencer ITD: 195 for 75
burkman SUB: 30 for 105 / ITD: 100 for 80 / noons
grabowski DEC: 30 for 154.50 / NOT grabowski ITD: 70.50 for 50 / O2.5: 50 for 55 / lewis RD 2: 15 for 97.50 / lewis RD 3: 10 for 135
borg RD 2: 15 for 90 / borg RD 3: 10 for 110 / borg SUB: 150 for 365 / scoggins
lahat-rivas: idk
gall-jackson: idk
lobov -106: 299.99 for 281.81 / lobov KO: 50 for 155 / lobov no scorecards: 177 for 150 / white
props
parlays
---
so far. not done by any stretch & might hedge lobov play(s).
I'm obviously not a big fan of this event for betting.
Singles
Nelson: $16.25 to win $11.69 $27.94
Hendricks: $7.50 to win $3.57 Loss
Lobov/White under 2.5: $6.25 to win $5.43 Loss
Grabowski: $5 to win $3.45 Loss
Scoggins: $3.75 to win $8.25 $12
Not Gall Rd 1: $3.75 to win $2.78 Loss
Makovsky: $2.50 to win $8.63 Loss
Feijao: $2.50 to win $7.50 Loss
Noons: $2.50 to win $3.75 Loss
Coyle: $1.25 to win $4.19 Loss
Volkmann: $1.25 to win $1.99 $3.24
Cirkunov via (T)Ko: $1.25 to win $2.13 Loss
Risk of $53.75 $43.18
Parlays
Field over Fowler(Phoenix Open) + Not Lahat Sub: $2.50 to win $2.20 $4.70
Field over Fowler (Phoenix Open) + Pyle/Spencer ITD: $2.50 to win $2.68 $5.18
Field over Lee (Phoenix Open) + East + Ramos: $2.50 to win $1.26 Loss Field over Lee (Phoenix Open) + Cirkunov/Nicholson ITD + Hendricks (-3.5): 1.25 to win $2.52 Loss
Risk of $8.75 $9.88
TOTAL RISK OF $62.50: $53.06
TOTALS FOR 2016: Initial Risk was $165, Running total is $192.12 Running Profit = $27.12 (Approximate ROI for year 6.78%)
TOTALS FOR 2015: Initial Risk was $95, Running total is $263.68 Running Profit: $168.68 Approximate ROI for year 3.901%)
TOTALS FOR 2014: Initial Risk was $127.50 Running Total is $148.35 Running Profit = $20.85 (Approximate ROI for year 0.74%)
TOTALS FOR 2013: Initial Risk was $232.50, Running total is $583.75 Running Profit = $351.25 (Approximate ROI for year: 9.34%)
TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2014: $29 into $2741.31 Total Profit = $2722.31 (Approximate ROI: 12.7416%)
Johny Hendricks win: R$15,00 to win R$6,00
Nelson vs Rosholt OVER 1,5 Rounds: R$10,00 to win R$7,20
Benavidez decision win: R$7,50 to win R$6,00
Lobov win: R$7,50 to win R$5,40
Grabowski win: R$7,50 to win R$4,95
6 units on Nelson (meant to bet 4 units, but I had it set to winnings, not bet amount. Oops).
1 unit on Rosholt and Pyle/Spencer over parlay to hedge my accidental overbet on Nelson
2 units on Borg and Benavidez/Makovsky over parlay
1 unit on Grabowski/Lewis over
3 units on OSP and Lahat parlay
.5 unit on Jackson and White parlay to win 5 units
1 unit on Pyle
1 unit on white
0.4 unit on overs parlay for KJ/Burkman, Scoggins/Borg, and Lobov/White
'Play as I go' for the main and co main. If its not such a good night, will live bet. If things go well, i'll bet but honestly still undecided as to what i'll do
OSP by sub, Feijao by dec
Makovsky by dec, o2.5
Cirkunov by KO
Pyle by dec
Burkman
Lewis itd simply cause hes the dog and this is dog or pass all day
Borg, o2.5
Lahat, Lahat by KO, and considering a large play on Lahat -3.5
Jackson by dec
Artem, Artem by KO
Thompson +220
Thompson/Hendricks over 2.5 -185
Nelson dec +995 and +850
Benevidez by dec -140
Cirkunov by KO/TKO +170
Burkman -160
Grabowski/Lewis under 1.5
Grabowski -110
Grabowski by sub +355
Scoggins/Borg over 2.5 (big) -135
Borg itd +177
Lobov +120
ufn 82Risk: 1,765.49
Thompson +200: 50 for 100 / Hendricks
rosholt +130: 100 for 130 / O1.5: 130 for 100 / nelson DEC: 25 for 248.75
OSP-feijao: idk
makovsky +3.5: 100 for 147.50 / Benavidez
cirkunov-nicholson: idk
pyle no scorecards: 108 for 100 / NOT spencer ITD: 195 for 75
noons +3.5: 100 for 76.92 / ITD: 100 for 80 / burkman SUB: 30 for 105
grabowski DEC: 30 for 154.50 / NOT grabowski ITD: 70.50 for 50 / O2.5: 50 for 55 / lewis RD 2: 15 for 97.50 / lewis RD 3: 10 for 135
borg RD 2: 15 for 90 / borg RD 3: 10 for 110 / borg SUB: 150 for 365 / scoggins
lahat-rivas: idk
gall-jackson: idk
lobov +107: 169.99 for 181.81 / lobov KO: 50 for 155 / lobov no scorecards: 177 for 150 / white
props
SUB O3.5: 42 for 53.34
SUB O4.5: 15 for 55.05
SUB O5.5: 5 for 55.50
SUB O6.5: 2 for 70.50
SUB O7.5: 1 for 175
FOTN: thompson-hendricks: 15 for 51
parlays
---
i guess i'm mostly set.
no prefight bet (as of now) on four fights in one ufc.. that's like a record for me, lol.
might do another half unit on thompson prefight, but idk. prolly smarter to just live bet him after the first if i'm gonna bet him more. kinda wish i did that with rosholt, too.
borg sub would be great. and pyle and lobov better not get finished.
With everyone else on thinking this is a mediocre betting card. The Thompson/Hendricks lines were also better before the round change reset:
Thompson Hendricks starts round 4: -156
Thompson Hendricks goes 5 round distance: +100
Roy Nelson: -150
Makovsky: +375
Scoggins: +270
Gall/Jackson U1.5: -148
Burkman: -170 (hedged out of this a bit post-weigh-in, but still on him)
Into this event small enough where it doesn't hurt. Really could see every single one of these bets missing, but prefer the sides I'm on.
Edit: Added Gall/Jackson U1.5 as well, 2 near-amateurs facing off with opposing skillsets. Good odds somebody's stopped.
3u Hendricks
2u Spencer (0,2u Pyle dec hedge)
2u Artem
2u Borg + Lahat
2u O2.5 Ben/Mak (0,2u Ben sub hedge)
0,5u Makovsky dec
5u O2.5 Borg/Scog (1u Borg sub hedge)
0,2u OSP sub
0,2u cavalcante dec
0,5u cavalcante ML
1u O1.5 OSP/Cav
1u Rosholt & 1u O1.5
1u Grabowski & 0,5u O1.5 (0,1u Lewis r3)
Also have a Lahat + Francisco Rivera parlay for 1u.
Ended up having way more on this card than expected. We'll see how it goes.
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