what's the other 35-45% for you? leites almost impossible to finish..especially if moose is conservative
Ladbrokes have Mousasi by UD at 15/8 +187.
Wow that would be 3 to 4 units for me for sure.
Chalk it up to "it's fighting and weird stuff happens" I guess LOL? Maybe Moose doesn't use enough movement and Leites is able to make it a dirty boxing fight and squeaks out a decision? Hell, maybe I'm even being too conservative. Maybe the odds of a Moose dec are even better than what I'm saying. I absolutely think it's by far the most likely outcome so at + odds it's the bet to make.
don't necessarily disagree, but yea, unless you think moose can actually finish leites (which i don't), your #'s looked wrong -- which might mean one of two things
1: it's higher % than you are thinking for mousasi DEC
2: you're underestimating leites
or both
Yeah's that's very tempting. Only thing that makes me hesitate is I bet Cejudo to win by unanimous last fight and it was a split even tho it was clearly a unanimous decision.
Love that line. See this going to a decision for sure, that over might be my biggest play on that card.I like the O2.5 in Mousasi/Leites
I will stab Pickett at +200 easily if he gets there. Cisco is a flat footed power puncher, and really not much more. Pickett strives in the pocket where he can get flattened in this fight, but at least he'll be more than comfortable should it get there. Pickett has pretty good footwork (better than Rivera at least) and mixes in wrestling with good timed shots pretty well, especially with guys who are willing to go toe to toe. I'm not sure why anyone would want to fade Pickett here when he just gave Thomas Almeida, who lets be honest is a top 5 fighter, hell in his last fight.
I'm on Pickett too. He's slow as hell at this advanced age though. You can really tell he's lost a step and speed kills @ 135. Cisco though, isn't much of a speed demon so it'll probably be a fire fight unless Pickett decides to take it to the floor. He has the option to get it there and that to me gives him the advantage in this fight.
It'll be hard to get it there because Cisco has looked great with his TDD as of late but I think Pickett is scrappy enough to get in close and keep him honest if he doesn't get KO'd in the process. He's got more ways to win basically. I hope Cisco gets bet up
I think Bisping is fade material at this point. He has not looked good for a long time.
I thought he lost against Leites and iirc his fight with CB was somehow close. Rockhold made him look like and amateur and beating a 42 years old Cung Le who was coming from a long layoff is not that impressive.
Last time he looked good IMO was against Belcher, and that was 3 years ago.
Only chance to win for MB is to outpoint Silva from the outside and put a Condit/Diaz performance... yeah, good luck with that.
Anderson Silva obviously lost a step and he looked tentative against Nick Diaz (who IMO is better than 2016 Bisping even at MW) but he is extraordinary.
The only question IMO is which Silva is going to come... conservative or vintage I think both beat Bisping pretty easily.
Regarding Mousasi/Leites... Im a huge Mousasi fan but I think Leites line is off. This fight is going to be a lot closer than odds suggest. Mousasi is really good but he tends to be inactive sometimes and Leites has a solid chin, above average striking (hard legkicks) and really good ground game. I can see him pressing the action and making this a close contest. Still rooting for Moose but Im not touching him at those odds.
Over 2.5 should hit like 4 out of 5 or something.. so at 1.57 I think it is the bet to make.
BTW... I rarely bet on huge favs.. but Breese is getting a gimme fight here. This is a mismatch of epic proportions.