I was eyeing Khabilov when i first saw the fightcard but I need to watch tape. Where is he -227? I guess it's a no-lose situation as the hedge is Parke dec.
Khabilov -225 at Coral. Khabilov + Mouse + Breese evens at Whill (without Breese -120). What I like about Khabilov and Mouse if that i can only see their opponents winning a decision so the hedge is there or you can utilise lb.
I actually prefer his SUB line over KO, but I doubt either hitJust put a couple units on the over at -190.
Something to consider is Leites KO currently at +1185
UK bettors am I right in thinking that for the UK shows lb is available from the Fox prelims? I am happy to lb only this show but not if i only have the main card to play with.
I actually prefer his SUB line over KO, but I doubt either hit
I don't even have anything on this fight yet. But I disagree with Leites KO and SUB being equally likely to happen. Before the Uriah Hall fight, Gegard was never KOed. It took an absolute donkey kick and flying knee from hell to put him away and he still wasn't fully out. Leites has shown some pop recently, but his BJJ is still his bread and butter. He has one of the best, if not the best, arm triangle chokes in the whole game. Gegard has been subbed 3 times, albeit only once recently to Jacare, but I still think he is more prone to losing by SUB than KO. With all that said, I think Leites most likely route to victory is a decision followed by SUB than TKO.If you are gonna hedge the over 2.5 and Mousasi dec bets (I am a little) I think it's sort of foolish to try to guess how Leites finishes. He has big power but also a very nice bjj game. Instead of guessing I'm just playing the itd line at +574. Think it makes way more sense than trying to guess KO or sub, which are pretty equally likely to happen imo (and the odds reflect as much).
I don't even have anything on this fight yet. But I disagree with Leites KO and SUB being equally likely to happen. Before the Uriah Hall fight, Gegard was never KOed. It took an absolute donkey kick and flying knee from hell to put him away and he still wasn't fully out. Leites has shown some pop recently, but his BJJ is still his bread and butter. He has one of the best, if not the best, arm triangle chokes in the whole game. Gegard has been subbed 3 times, albeit only once recently to Jacare, but I still think he is more prone to losing by SUB than KO. With all that said, I think Leites most likely route to victory is a decision followed by SUB than TKO.
Mousasi has 1 KO loss, to Hall by fluke of all flukes. He has one of the best chins in MMA imo. For god's sakes he's been in there with Mark Hunt.Just put a couple units on the over at -190.
Something to consider is Leites KO currently at +1185
I have nice sized bets on Mousasi by dec at +125 and +115 (currently +100) but I also just hit the over 2.5 at -175. This fight goes to the cards 70% or more of the time imo. Yeah Mousasi just got stopped but Hall (for as flaky as he is) is a dynamic striker and landed a beautiful textbook spinning kick. Leites isn't gonna do that. Plus given that I think Mousasi will fight somewhat conservatively. And Leites is tough as nails. Love the over and Mousasi by dec. Could hedge small on Leites itd maybe too...
Mousasi was the last standing chin in mma. I like the idea of the mythical fighter that can't lose or can't get ko'd. And I like Mousasi because he's Dutch, talented, and a nice guy, so that loss was pretty heart breaking to me.Mousasi has 1 KO loss, to Hall by fluke of all flukes. He has one of the best chins in MMA imo. For god's sakes he's been in there with Mark Hunt.
Don't discount leites +3.5 as a possibile hedge.. You could still hit all bets with it (when the spreads go up)
Hmmmm. Idk. Keita is tough and has heart, but surely will lose. You still have half of the fight for Breese to score a KO.Breese KO -135
Actually I think I might like the u1.5 -150 better
lol I like them both, though. Gonna play both
Pendred was basically in the same category and we all know how that went. Plus Nakamura is a lot older in fight years. Breese SUB u1.5 is not out of the question either, although not as likely as a KO. Plus Breese should be A LOT bigger than Nakamura. Breese is a huge WWHmmmm. Idk. Keita is tough and has heart, but surely will lose. You still have half of the fight for Breese to score a KO.
Gotta think about this one.
I gotta watch tape on Keita, but Pendred was notoriously chinny with the opportunity for someone skilled to kill him just lingering in everyone's face.Pendred was basically in the same category and we all know how that went. Plus Nakamura is a lot older in fight years. Breese SUB u1.5 is not out of the question either, although not as likely as a KO. Plus Breese should be A LOT bigger than Nakamura. Breese is a huge WW
I agree with you on that, but Pendred was completely demolished. I need to watch more tape too but wasn't Li lighting up Nakamura on the feet? Anyway the KO line is already up to -170. You already missed the boatI gotta watch tape on Keita, but Pendred was notoriously chinny with the opportunity for someone skilled to kill him just lingering in everyone's face.
Yeah thats why I say K-Taro is tough. Hasn't been KOd in years and he ate shots from a heavy puncher. Remember that fight being awesome but can't remember much more other than the "holy shit" comeback from K-Taro after getting smashed lolI agree with you on that, but Pendred was completely demolished. I need to watch more tape too but wasn't Li lighting up Nakamura on the feet? Anyway the KO line is already up to -170. You already missed the boat