Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - February 2016

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Betting Tampa -1.5 against the leafs tonight for all the usual reasons, Toronto bare bones crew, also looks like their calling up goalie from the minors to make the start.
 
So I've been up from 2am Swedish time livebetting until between 2pm and 5pm four days in a row with good results on the dota 2 major in Shanghai. I've watch all but one match (I fell asleep and had to have a break the last day). Now the group stages are over and it's a two day break before the main event. I've put down a few plays thought for the first rounds in the brackets.

Since I'm doing good this time I figured my two cents might have some value.

In the winner's bracket I have:

5u Alliance vs Liquid @1.4
2u Alliance vs Liquid -1.5 @2.3
2.1u MVP vs LGD @2.7


In the loser's bracket I have:

2u Virtus Pro vs Vici Gaming @2.0


Reasoning for the bets
Alliance vs Liquid
I rated Alliance a B+ during the group stages, they had unpredictable and varied but good drafts, won all their games, had some amazing team fight execution and seems to be on the same page for the most part. They're 12-1 in the last 13 matches (in non-captains draft) against some of the best teams in the world and before that the only big slip ups the last months happened when they played on almost no sleep due to some kind of snowstorm that messed with flights to Belarus.

Liquid got a Slohog-rating of C+ for the group stage performance going 1-2 vs VP, 2-0 vs CoL and then winning their last match vs VP 2-0. I think they had one draft win and one draft loss vs VP in the first round, lost the somewhat even draft and then was a size too big for CoL (despite CoL being underrated) and ending the day with a 2-0 stomp over VP who at this point looked really tilted and or tired. When VP's Captain FNG instapicks stuff during the draft I think it's a fairly good sign they'll lose the game, last time I saw it was the last two games vs EG at the Summit 4.

Team Liquid has looked very shaky for a long time and while a lot of that was due to them not really giving a shit about smaller tournaments I really feel that their coordination has been off too and that just won't cut it against Alliance.

As for the match up I think A can just ban out Liquids Void + AOE-teamfight combos which they've been successful with or just come prepared for it. Given how the recent months have looked A is much better in the late game, has a better drafting phase and has better team fight coordination. They might give up one game if they decided to do their Jon Jones impression and just give Liquid whatever the crap they want and then try to outplay it while playing Liquid's game. A more likely scenario in my mind is however that they'll just run Liquid over in straight games and keep trucking until they run into OG or EG in he winner's bracket's final where they might have a bunch of issues.

MVP vs LGD
LGD is a better team then MVP, they're more proven, they have on of the all time best captains in rOtK and their players ranges from very solid veterans to on of the new superstars of Chinese dota in Maybe. However, it's been chinese new years which means that all the teams from China has ranged from "absolutely awful" to "much worse then I expected" in their performance this tournament due to spending time with their families and whatnot instead of practising computer games 35 hours per day. To be fair LGD did not look as awful as for example CDEC or Vici Gaming, but they do not look anything like in prime shape. I gave them a C for their group performance.

MVP on the other hand has looked like shit for the most part since the International last summer and they don't even have the same squad given that their captain had to do military service in South Korea. However, they destroyed their group going 4-0 with quick and dominant victories over Team Secret and Ehome and three of their five players are ranked in the top 10 on the Chinese MMR leaderboard (#1, #5 and #10). This squad is in shape, coordinated and has a clear idea about how to play at least the early game of this patch. A team like Alliance, EG or OG might be able to survive the early onslaught and take over the game later but I don't think LGD is the team to do it given their recent shape and I have to bet MVP here at 2.7. If this game was played today I'd say they would be the straight up favourites with some margin and despite LGD getting a few days to prepare I think there's a much better chance that MVP wins then the odds indicate. I'll probably ad to this bet if odds keeps solid or climbs.

VP vs VG
I love Vici Gaming but anyone who saw their group preformance and says that they're playing well is either on drugs, without any knowledge at all about Dota 2, or someone you really shouldn't buy a used care from. It's best of one which increases variance and just the pure talent on Vici Gaming keeps me away from going big on Virtus Pro at evens, but yea, if group stages is any indication VP should have this in the bag. Vici looked really god damn awful. I gave them a D+, the 2nd lowest rating I gave to any team while VP got a C+.

Alliance is a great bet here, having a very strong group showing and the patch generally works in their favor

I also really like OG going against Secret, Secret unfortunately hasn't played well at all lately.

Also for the lower bracket I am feeling strongly towards Newbee, didn't get to watch all their series but watched them versus LGD, while they didn't have the best showing they certainly look better than Newbee, I see them taking that game relatively easy

Looks to be a relatively solid tourney to bet with a couple very clear cut favorites.

I also love VP going against VG, they have indeed looked awful and losing 0-2 to Team Spirit is a clear indication that they will not last in the tourney.

Who do you have making the finals?

I see it being Alliance vs EG/MVP
With this patch Alliance should have no problem running through the tournament.
 
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Betting Tampa -1.5 against the leafs tonight for all the usual reasons, Toronto bare bones crew, also looks like their calling up goalie from the minors to make the start.
I am going with Tampa, Rangers and Penguins in regulation singles.
 
GUYS, if any of your bookies have NOT Hillary Clinton Okhlahoma or Bernie Sanders wins Okhlahoma (Same thing. This is politics, btw) +200 or better, bet that shit. A new poll shows he's up by 5 points and news came out that Okhlahoma is letting independent voters vote in the Democratic primary but not the Republican primary. This helps Bernie Sanders even more. I was able to get Bernie Sanders +260 on BetOnline. This is not a lock, but the line is really wrong here. People are late to react. It should be like -150/-200. The primary is tomorrow


DON'T MOVE THIS TO THE POLITICS THREAD OR NONE OF YOU WILL SEE IT
 
Followed these threads for a long while now and never really thanked you guys or contributed but 538 polls+ forecast gives Bernie an 83% chance of winning there. Bovada (lol) has Bernie at +350.
 
Followed these threads for a long while now and never really thanked you guys or contributed but 538 polls+ forecast gives Bernie an 83% chance of winning there. Bovada (lol) has Bernie at +350.
They don't fucking accept my state anymore. Nice catch! I'm still beyond happy with +260. BetOnline Was the only bookie of mine that had the line up anyway. This also proves the point that it is always good to have more than 1 bookie. I only have 3, and BetOnline is by far the one I use the least. However, it comes through in the clutch as the only one with the line up!

By the way, the 538 polls % predicition aren't too accurate. With that said, Bernie is def the favorite now
 
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BetOnline took the line down. They better fucking honor my bet. That was not a line error or anything like that.

Check Bovada and Euro books for the line. BM, 5d, and BetOnline do not have it
 
@Slohog I tailed you on all your plays. Thanks for posting and bol to us

Yea, I really think I'm on point with these. If they actually hit decently I'll keep posting stuff.

Alliance is a great bet here, having a very strong group showing and the patch generally works in their favor

I also really like OG going against Secret, Secret unfortunately hasn't played well at all lately.

Also for the lower bracket I am feeling strongly towards Newbee, didn't get to watch all their series but watched them versus LGD, while they didn't have the best showing they certainly look better than Newbee, I see them taking that game relatively easy

Looks to be a relatively solid tourney to bet with a couple very clear cut favorites.

I also love VP going against VG, they have indeed looked awful and losing 0-2 to Team Spirit is a clear indication that they will not last in the tourney.

Who do you have making the finals?

I see it being Alliance vs EG/MVP
With this patch Alliance should have no problem running through the tournament.

I'm guessing A vs EG or OG in the finals. I have some reservations about MVP's style against the top ~3 teams and would've given them a much higher chance if there wasn't a two day break. I think S4, Fly and PPD will spend some time figuring them out and adjusting decently well. That said they might still go very far.

I think I like Newbee too, I was very impressed with them during the qualifiers where I thought CDEC.Y would just run everyone over and Newbee 3-1'd them fairly easy in the finals. I also think Chuan might be a top5 tryhard in the world so maybe they're not as in as awful shape as the rest of China.

If I got even money I'd bet on Newbee over CDEC since they only looked slightly shaky and overall not great while CDEC looked like a total fadeplant (according to my notes, heh). However, they're only at 1.7 and it's a bo1 so I'm gonna take a look at the draft before I commit.

I also agree on OG against Secret, but odds are kind of reflecting that and OG can be throwy from time to time and I'm not a fan of laying juice against Puppy when he seems to be giving a shit. That said I'd probably bet it at -180 or so, and if the draft looks decent (no Secret Tide+Enigma or Puppy Chen or anything resembling a total outdraft) I'll probably throw a unit on OG for map.
 
Bovada just adjusted it to Bernie -150. They should honor the bets already made, yeah?
 
Was trying to parlay Trump to win every Super Tuesday state except Texas but 5d wouldn't allow it lol
 
Bovada just adjusted it to Bernie -150. They should honor the bets already made, yeah?
They f'in better honor it. That was not a line error. They were just too late to react to the news. Just saw 5d has it at -170, too. Basically exactly what I thought it should be -150/-200

Kind of off topic, and not to brag but...

I have the sickest lines for (Super Tuesday) politics tomorrow. I'll be posting them in the politics thread in a little while
 
Dota 2 (3/1-3/2)
MVP Phoenix (+190) $10 to win $19
Newbee (-150) $30 to win $20
Alliance (-240) $24 to win $10
Alliance/Evil Geniuses/OG $10 to win $15

Feeling pretty confident I will hit the majority if not all of these.
 
Half a unit for me. Not recommending it unless you're not feeling anything else and just want some action
Lol that is literally exactly the case. Super light card tonight and I just don't have a strong felling on anything really. Going to play that and a play on Texas after the line has moved a full 2 points. Other than that taking it easy tonight.

CBB

Texas +3.5 2u
North
Carolina -13.5 2u

NBA

Bucks +3 2u


Edit- adding UNC
 
damnit i shouldn't have second guessed myself w the Bucks

edit: putting half a unit on Denver 2H at +105
 
damnit i shouldn't have second guessed myself w the Bucks

edit: putting half a unit on Denver 2H at +105
haha yeah and I am kicking myself for not just playing them but instead also playing the other two leans I had that weren't even that strong. Oh well Bucks win makes it just a minor negative night.

Good call man.
 
I hit Buck ML at +145. Houston is too inconsistent and play way too lazy on D to be giving pts on the road even against mediocre teams. Good call guys. I was leaning Bucks and you guys confirmed my thoughts.
 
LOL I played Westbrook rebounds+assists over 19 at -130 and he was over with like 8 minutes left in the THIRD QUARTER LOL.
 
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