Official UFC 196 Thread - Part II

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If mendes lasted 1 round i got confidence in diaz. I think if your chin is weak he can put you down in 1 round but diaz will have range and a good chin i think conor will try to figure him out first. Ill 50 to win 25 and parlay it with something safe probably

geez why even bother at -510 lol. but i dont really like -210 on that honestly

because it was a lock, i added it to parlays. I also had diaz along with all those props. Had a nice parlay to like 4 to win 109 on a parlay diaz with that russian girl by decision
 
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For those that still want to hit mac his ko prop is -300 which is still value imo
 
If mendes lasted 1 round i got confidence in diaz. I think if your chin is weak he can put you down in 1 round but diaz will have range and a good chin i think conor will try to figure him out first. Ill 50 to win 25 and parlay it with something safe probably



because it was a lock, i added it to parlays. I also had diaz along with all those props. Had a nice parlay to like 4 to win 109 on a parlay diaz with that russian girl by decision
Wasnt Aldo only rocked once prior to his loss to Conor? Chad was able to hide behind his wrestling in his fight, its not like they were standing and banging the whole first round. I'm not claiming not Conor R1 is a bad bet im just playing devil's advocate
 
For those that still want to hit mac his ko prop is -300 which is still value imo
you'd rather play that than Conor by DEC at +680?? I get that Nate is a late addition but its a no brainer bet. Conor can def knock him out but at -300, why bet it lol
 
how could mcgregor get more takedowns then diaz? I could see 0 takedowns in the fight which is a void right? clearly he doesn't want to takedown diaz cause then he has to deal with his bjj but diaz is bigger and would love to get it to the ground if he can. +180 seems awesome price
 
Do you, or anyone knows what's the difference between total rounds betting and will fight go the distance? I'm confused, so if I bet both under 1.5 and Yes to will fight go the distance, then it's a sure win?

View attachment 81671
Did anybody respond to this yet??

NOOOO its not guaranteed money. Under 1.5 Rds wins if the fight finishes prior to the 2:30 mark in the 2nd round. Any Finish between that time and the end of the fight and you lose both bets.
 
Quick question to anyone who orders the PPVs

Does the Fight Pass stream lag behind? I ask because ps4 live events has a discount, but last two times i've bought from there the stream lagged by 30-40 seconds which fucked with live betting for me.

I'll pay the 15 extra for the Fight Pass stream if there isn't lag. Felt fine during Silva vs Bisping, but its been awhile since I ordered a PPV through here.
 
you'd rather play that than Conor by DEC at +680?? I get that Nate is a late addition but its a no brainer bet. Conor can def knock him out but at -300, why bet it lol

What's the most likely outcome though? Surely McGregor by KO/TKO
 
She opened the favorite.
 
you'd rather play that than Conor by DEC at +680?? I get that Nate is a late addition but its a no brainer bet. Conor can def knock him out but at -300, why bet it lol
Both are good. However the way Conor has hyped himself he is obligated to go for a ko. Also at 170 ko is nore likely
 
What's the most likely outcome though? Surely McGregor by KO/TKO
Diaz has only been finished once by strikes. Sure, its more likely that Conor ends the fight but would you rather risk 3u on a TKO or risk 0.15u on Conor by DEC? because both options win you 1u
 
As if there weren't enough angles to play that fight from, Nunes by dec +386 is a tremendous line. She is bigger, and considering these chicks look pretty dead even for the most part in the wrestling, that could play a big difference.

Think I will play that, since Nunes round 1 is all i'm officially on right now
 
saggo is solid all around. the felder fight was very close, and felder was saved by the bell at the end of the 3rd. saggo should be able to take salas down at will and look for the finish from there.
I think that's more of a mark against Felder's grappling than a plus for Saggo's wrestling. Felder has struggled in nearly every bout, sometimes against guys with ok wrestling (Cruickshank), to those not at all known for their grappling (Pearson).

I think Saggo is ok on the feet, but he shows a real reluctance there, while Salas is happy to throw in the pocket. Plus that achilles injury. That's serious stuff. I like the value in Salas at +185.
 
Alright boys, capped all the fights and I have 5 incredible "value picks" for this card 4 of which I will only provide for my loyal subscribers. Per usual, I provide my 1 FREE pick for sherdog with no strings attached. Take Darren Elkins +145 to the bank or if you have props available take him to win by decision. I have this as essentially a pick 'em fight with Skelly getting maybe the slightest advantage only because of his size and jiu-jitsu. What's very troubling is Skelly's putrid gas tank and that is a huge red flag against a true all american wrestling grinder like Elkins. Darren has rudimentary stand-up but I wouldn't rate Skelly any better so it's basically a wash in that aspect. When you have a fight like this as simply an even match you take the dog with + odds without hesitation. This is the very definition of VALUE which I've harped on and will continue on reminding novice bettors. In this game you will not make any $ without betting on value, I promise you.

My FREE pick from the previous card was Bisping by decision and I came through with not only the win but I crushed it with value. With Bisping's pillow fists I correctly determined and analysed his most likely route to win was by judges decision. I parlayed that with the fact he was fighting in England and found it more likely he would get a hometown decision fighting in his home country. This is just one of the overlooked facts many MMA bettors do not factor in when capping a fight. A truly great capper has to dissect every single variable when they predict a fight and this takes time and skill for the most part.

I know first hand what its like betting without having the basic fundamentals in place. If you go into this without a solid grasp you'll be burning money and donating your hard earned money to the evil-doers i.e The Bookies. I came into MMA betting losing until I looked myself in the mirror and told myself this is going to stop. I started learning from expert sports gamblers and reading everything I could about profitable sports cappers. I started building a betting system to which I stick to and I never bet just for action or because I'm bored. I stick to a 1% flat bet and never deviate from that stake. I never tilt or chase losses and I'm always working hard to research fights where I think I have an edge by finding small inconsistencies and mistakes by oddsmakers. All of this has been well worth it as the blood, sweat and tears from my hard work has shown an average ROI of about 15-20% give or take.

I'm basically the true embodiment of a $harp which bookmakers detest. Let my experiences motivate you to become a true $harp. In turn, you will get to a level where you're consistently making money building a bankroll. I'm not going to lie and say it's easy but sometimes you have to sacrifice to reap the rewards and sip the sweet juice of the nectar. What I'm trying to say is that if I can do it anyone can.

Hit that like button and if you have any questions you'd like answered hit me up. While I don't have a lot of free time I'll try and find some for anyone who's willing to become a better sports bettor. Remember, I was once just like you and I've had to learn the hard way without any help save from my constant pursuit to make money and become the #1 $harpest MMA bettor!!

- Barry
 
wish we could bet on NOT fotn for mcgregor-diaz (since FOTN is +155, would definitely play -200 for NOT)
 
Alright boys, capped all the fights and I have 5 incredible "value picks" for this card 4 of which I will only provide for my loyal subscribers. Per usual, I provide my 1 FREE pick for sherdog with no strings attached. Take Darren Elkins +145 to the bank or if you have props available take him to win by decision. I have this as essentially a pick 'em fight with Skelly getting maybe the slightest advantage only because of his size and jiu-jitsu. What's very troubling is Skelly's putrid gas tank and that is a huge red flag against a true all american wrestling grinder like Elkins. Darren has rudimentary stand-up but I wouldn't rate Skelly any better so it's basically a wash in that aspect. When you have a fight like this as simply an even match you take the dog with + odds without hesitation. This is the very definition of VALUE which I've harped on and will continue on reminding novice bettors. In this game you will not make any $ without betting on value, I promise you.

My FREE pick from the previous card was Bisping by decision and I came through with not only the win but I crushed it with value. With Bisping's pillow fists I correctly determined and analysed his most likely route to win was by judges decision. I parlayed that with the fact he was fighting in England and found it more likely he would get a hometown decision fighting in his home country. This is just one of the overlooked facts many MMA bettors do not factor in when capping a fight. A truly great capper has to dissect every single variable when they predict a fight and this takes time and skill for the most part.

I know first hand what its like betting without having the basic fundamentals in place. If you go into this without a solid grasp you'll be burning money and donating your hard earned money to the evil-doers i.e The Bookies. I came into MMA betting losing until I looked myself in the mirror and told myself this is going to stop. I started learning from expert sports gamblers and reading everything I could about profitable sports cappers. I started building a betting system to which I stick to and I never bet just for action or because I'm bored. I stick to a 1% flat bet and never deviate from that stake. I never tilt or chase losses and I'm always working hard to research fights where I think I have an edge by finding small inconsistencies and mistakes by oddsmakers. All of this has been well worth it as the blood, sweat and tears from my hard work has shown an average ROI of about 15-20% give or take.

I'm basically the true embodiment of a $harp which bookmakers detest. Let my experiences motivate you to become a true $harp. In turn, you will get to a level where you're consistently making money building a bankroll. I'm not going to lie and say it's easy but sometimes you have to sacrifice to reap the rewards and sip the sweet juice of the nectar. What I'm trying to say is that if I can do it anyone can.

Hit that like button and if you have any questions you'd like answered hit me up. While I don't have a lot of free time I'll try and find some for anyone who's willing to become a better sports bettor. Remember, I was once just like you and I've had to learn the hard way without any help save from my constant pursuit to make money and become the #1 $harpest MMA bettor!!

- Barry
finally!! been waiting all day for this. bettin the house on Elkins
 
sorry guys I have not been around to contribute -- my loss as I miss the sharp consensus-- but I have been sick for the past couple weeks. At any rate, I made a few breakdowns with predictions I am going to post ITT and hopefully they don't get moved and dispersed throughout one of the threads where they clog up traffic and get lost along the way. The last time a MOD moved them into one of the other threads ..But I will post them here if they get moved then que sera..


Holly Holm (10-0) vs. Miesha Tate (17-5)
-270, +248

Fresh off a second round shellacking of female mixed martial arts goddess
Ronda Rousey, former multiple time female boxing champion Holly Holm gets back in the cage this weekend. Saturday Holm looks to follow up on her shocking upset with her first defense of the title over Rousey's arch rival and former Strikeforce champ Miesha Tate. Once again Holm will look to use her top level pugilistic astuteness to score points while utilizing her nimble footwork and excellent take defense to remain vertical. Meanwhile, the newly minted champion will remain composed and set traps for Tate to walk into ala the beautiful fight ending high head kick she used to win the title with.

Long time female mixed martial arts veteran Miesha Tate has been at the vanguard of the sport for nearly a decade. With over twenty-fights to her name, the savvy wrestle-boxer has a well-rounded game and at 29 years old is just now reaching her prime. Indeed, Tate is improving in her handiwork which was on full display in her last outing against the talented Jessica Eye. On the heels of a four fight win streak Tate has demonstrated a far better understanding of when to box and when to brawl and her timing and accuracy are much refined. One of the most grittiest competitors in all of mixed martial arts -- male or female -- Tate has repeatedly shown that she is willing to bite down on on her mouthpiece and throw hands with anyone in the division. Additionally she has demonstrated a propensity to march forward through any type of adversity. At any rate "Cupcake" will be up against it when she faces off against the champion and if she wants to wrestle away the strap she is going to need to bring forth a sneaky strategy that allows her to shrink the gap between the physical and technical advantages Holm will enjoy. Moreover, she cannot afford to show up apathetic and coast through rounds as she has been known to do in the past and get away with it this time.

Essentially this tilt revolves around Tate's ability to get her hands on the champion and make this an ugly tussle while Holm utilizes her talents to remain vertical. Tate would be best served to forgo her brawling tactics and aim to stay methodical in her striking while looking for chances to change levels and shoot. To win this fight and become the women's UFC bantamweight champion Tate is going to need to be able to bring Holm to the mat where she can work her superior grappling game. That said, I believe Holm is going to be far too elusive for Tate to track down and much too technical in her striking. This on top of Holm's exquisite footwork and athleticism lead me to believe that at the end of the day we will hear honey voiced ring announcer Bruce Buffer mouthing the words "And Still" when it's all said and done.

Prediction: Holm wins TKO via HHK (r2)


____________


Amanda Nunes (12–1) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (11-4)
-120, +110

If you are looking for a dark-horse contender to challenge for the female Bantamweight Championship at the end of 2016, Russian prospect Valentina Shevchenko is a great place to start. A vastly decorated striker, Shevchenko is a 17-Time World Muay Thai and K1 Champion with a combined record of 56-2 in the multiple disciplines. Having been stacking bodies for over a decade in the striking arts, the 27-year old is quick, accurate, and powerful. What's more, "Bullet" has a multifaceted attack where she is efficacious on the outside or in close quarters. The Tiger Muay-Thai product can chew her opponent up in the clinch with a steady stream of knees, elbows and dirty boxing work or on the fringe with laser guided kicks and punches. Although she is a striker first and foremost, Shevchenko is not a novice in the grappling arts as she has a background in judo and owns five wins via submission.

On the other side of the cage will stand the equally dangerous fighter Nunes who has become a big problem for opposing females to deal with. An ultra aggressive fighter, the 27-year-old bruiser is a grappling ace with a black and brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Judo respectively. With multiple world titles in submission grappling, Nunes has a significant advantage over most every female she faces as she is incredibly strong with excellent technique in her takedowns. Meanwhile, the Strikeforce and Invicta FC veteran has a fundamentally sound striking attack with over twenty years of Karate experience to cull on. What's more, not only is her striking technical, but Nunes also possesses big power as indicated by her nine career TKO stoppages.

Riding a two fight win streak, Nunes has collected a pair of impressive scalps in Sara McMann and Shayna Baszler in impressive back-to-back performances. First, Baszler was carved like a jack-o'-lantern and TKO'd while the Brazilian overwhelmed perennial top contender McMann with a bevy of power punches to the head and body before ultimately polishing her off with a a rear-naked choke. However things will likely be more difficult when the "Lioness" squares off against the highly talented Kyrgyzstan native this weekend. As good a striker as Nunes is, her skills lag far behind those of Shevchenko. That said, for Nunes to win this fight she's going to need to rely on her takedowns and physicality. Basically, unless the Brazilian can force "Bullet" into a protracted grappling match it's highly likely that she's going to get lit up like a Christmas tree for fifteen minutes or possibly put to sleep. From my perspective I see the latter taking place as Shevchenko takes one more step towards the top five where I think she belongs.

Prediction: Shevchenko TKO (r3)

______________

Diego Sanchez (25-8) vs. Jim Miller. (25-7)
FUFC 196 breakdown +138, -155

The last of the original members to compete on the inaugural season of The Ultimate Fighter series Sanchez will remarkably make his way to the octagon for the 23rd time this weekend. Like cockroaches, the show he came off of and the nipped and tucked band of tacky aristocrats, known as the Kardashian's, you simply cannot get rid of Sanchez. With more miles on his odometer than Willie Nelson's bus, the shopworn Sanchez is hanging on by a thread at this point. Still snarling, grimy and tough as shoe-leather, at this point Sanchez's skills have completely declined and by the grace of a few brain-dead judges, he is still employed. Having only been awarded a pair of victories over the course of his last six outings, in truth "The Dream" should be 0-7 over that span as split decision wins over Ross Pearson and Martin Kampann are among the most unanimously agreed upon robberies in modern mixed martial arts history. Nevertheless, Sanchez has officially dropped three of his last four appearances and he is coming off a one sided beat-down loss at the hands of perennials top ranked Featherweight contender Ricardo Lamas in what was a -- brief and ill-advised -- temporary foray into the 145 pound waters.

Coming in off of an impressive performance against the always tough out Team Alpha Male’s Danny Castillo is New Jersey's Jim Miller. One of the grittiest fighters on the UFC roster from top to bottom, Miller is a skilled competitor whose heart out weighs his athleticism and natural talents. A former standout wrestler and long time Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu0 black belt, Miller made a name for himself competing on the now defunct International Fight League which he parlayed into what has been a stellar UFC career. The pugnacious Miller enters this weekend with over thirty career mixed martial arts bouts under his belt and though his skills has begun to plateau, he still remains a top 15 level talent even in the UFC's shark infested 155 pound waters.

Your prototypical wrestle-boxer, Miller has solid striking fundamentals and is excellent at transitioning seamlessly from throwing punches into a blast double leg takedown. What's more, Miller has still shown that he has quick reflexes and snapping muscle memory as he will dive on a submission in a blink of an eye. This is particularly true when his opponent leaves their neck exposed where he will latch onto it with his crushing vice like guillotine instantaneously.

In-stark contrast, Sanchez has basically no sense of fluidity or cohesion to anything he does. Right now the Jackson-Wink product is a flat footed brawler who wades forward like a punch drunk zombie throwing wild unkempt punches that hit nothing but air. At the same time, he has no head movement whatsoever and instead of slipping shots he decides to block them with his face. Once a formidable wrestler with a robust takedown game, the current incarnation of Sanchez shows absolutely no signs of this fighter and if you want to see you it again then you best purchase a UFC fight pass subscription and watch his fights circa 2007 because he's not going to turn back the clock anytime soon.

Essentially, unless Miller engages Diego in a brawl and walks right into something -- like Gilbert Melendez did -- and gets put to sleep immediately and/or we get another bogus Sanchez decision; the likelihood of the New Jersey based fighter taking home the victory is very high. At this point, Miller should be too fast for Sanchez on the feet with crisp/accurate enough boxing to out-point him with relative ease. Meanwhile Miller could probably find a bit of success with his takedown game interspersed with his striking as well if he so chooses to implement it.

Prediction: Miller by unanimous decision

_______


Marcelo "Magrão" Guimaraes (8-1-1) vs. Vitor "Lex Luther" Miranda (10-6)

When when it comes to diversity in traditional martial arts, few fighters can hold a candle to cornucopia of credentials Vitor Miranda comes stocked with. A high-level striker, Miranda has participated in multiple K-1 events against the highest level of kickboxers and he brings this talent into the cage with him. The owner of myriad combat accolades, "Lex Luther" has brown or black belts in a bevy of striking and grappling arts from traditional Kickboxing to Muay-Thai to Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Additionally, the 36-year-old Brazilian has a wide variety of unique disciplines interspersed in between including Savate, Sanda and Judo among others.

Competing on The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 3 as a Heavyweight, Miranda would carve a path of destruction all the way to the Finale before losing a tough stylistic match-up to eventual winner Antônio Carlos Júnior (Shoe Face) via decision. However, the 6'1" Brazilian bone-crusher would drop down from Heavyweight to Middleweight thereafter where he brought his power along with him. Indeed, this was evinced in his dusting of Jake Collier and Clint Hester in his twin slayings of the American middleweight competitors.

Former Jungle Fights welterweight champion Marcelo Guimaraes is back in the Octagon this weekend where he will look to build upon his victory over Andy Enz last time out. Considered a can't miss prospect not too long ago, Guimaraeshas yet to find any semblance of consistency outside of Brazil. Barely stumbling past the wholly mediocre Daniel Stittgen in a nightmare of a performance, Guimaraes was subsequently pasted by Korean turret-gunner Hyun Gyu Lim in his next fight. The brain scrambling loss to Gyu Lim happened in 2013 and Guimaraes has not been active since. A high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with a plethora of world titles attached to his name, Guimaraes has struggled to make inroads with his top of the food chain submission grappling because he lacks the ability to consistently bring his opponent to the mat. In fact, I'm being generous using the word "inconsistent" when truthfully it is much worse given the 32-year-old Brazilian has successfully managed to hit on just 5 of 38 takedown attempts in his three octagon appearances. Incredibly, he went a meagerly 0-17 in his attempt to ground Stittgen is his octagon debut. To no surprise this is the reason why a decorated grappling specialist such as Magrão has accumulated a paltry two submissions in his ten professional mixed martial arts outings.

Worse still is Magrão's robotic striking which -- while improving -- is still extremely limited. With only a single T/KO victory on the docket, Guimaraes isn't an overwhelming threat to put his man to sleep doesn't put enough pressure on them to command respect. Moreover, coming up in weight from 170 pounds to 185 pounds places him in the unenviable task of being the smaller man this weekend. Defensively Guimaraes is even worse as he has copious fundamental flaws in his striking game which allow his opponent to continuously put heavy leather on him. All told, Magrão is a stilted striker with rudimentary technical skills who will be facing off against a cream of the crop pugilist who will enjoy advantages in both size and technique. In sum, I envisage Magrão struggling mightily to keep Miranda off of him as he gets bruised and battered until something heavy sneaks in and puts him to bed.

Prevention: "Lex Luther" via TKO (round two HHK)


__________


145 pounds : Chas Skelly vs Darren Elkins


Once known for being Johnny Hendricks prized whipping boy and favorite sparring partner Fort Worth Texas native Chas Skelly has now made a name of his own. Boasting perhaps the most apropos nickname in mixed martial arts, "The Scrapper" is a rangy individual sporting a protracted 73" reach that assists greatly in his stifling grappling attack. Having relocated, Skelly is a long time member of the vaunted Team Takedown and student of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt Mark Laimon. The 30-year-old Skelly is a suffocating submission specialist who loves to implement his will upon his opponent in the form of a Pat Healy. Already a formidable wrestler with a High-School and subsequent NAIA All-American background on his resume, Laimon has transformed Skelly into a top shelf grappler while legendary American wrestling standout Kenny Monday assisted in expanding the repertoire of the former Oklahoma City University wrestler. Having gone an impressive 3-1 in his four UFC appearances, his striking is still a bit unkempt yet he continues to show improvement.

After winning his first five bouts at featherweight, Elkins has run into a rough patch.
Following the drop to Featherweight in 2011 and picking up a win over Michiro Omigawa, the Indiana based Elkins would show you immediate results going on a torrid five fight winning streak before running headlong into a surging Chad Mendes in 2013. Since then, Elkins have failed to regain the type of momentum he entered the 145 pound division with and is now trying to put together his first two fight winning streak in over three years. The consummate blue-collar grinder, the tenacious Elkins is at his level best when he is able to utilize his smothering takedown and top control of his opposition. Always in phenomenal condition, Elkins gets stronger as the fight wears on and always shows up prepared to go the full distance.

This will most likely be ugly wrestling contest where whichever man who can dictate position on the floor with the floor. To my mind, I envision that man being Chas Skelly.

Prediction. Skelly via unanimous decision




______
170 pounds : Bahadurzada vs. Thatch

After nearly a year and a half away from competition, Siyar Bahadurzada makes his way back to the Octagon this weekend where he will work to recapture some of the hype that he entered the UFC with. Fighting out of war torn Afghanistan, he is a fearless individual inside the cage as one would expect. The former reigning Shooto Middleweight Champion, Bahadurzada is an absolute destroyer of men. While he will occasionally throw a low inside leg kick, the Afghan bomber is almost exclusively a boxer with positively no pretense as to what his gameplan consists of. Indeed, the owner of what are perhaps the heaviest hands in the welterweight division, Bahadurzada wades forward hurling bunker busting right and left hands understanding that only one needs to find its target to close the show. Unfortunately, the 31-year-old mixed martial artist has difficulty implementing this gameplan when facing off against elite fighters capable of taking him down. Abysmal takedown defense has allowed Siyar's opposition to neutralize his vicious punching power rendering him completely ineffective from his back.

Entering the UFC Brandon Thatch was a rocket fueled hype train without breaks destined to do big things according to his admirers. Just two fights into his ZUFFA contract the burgeoning prospect had ripped through UFC veterans Paulo Thiago and Justin Edwards in the first round like they were papier-mâché and appeared to be on a fast track to the top. Since then however, "Rukus" has hit a proverbial brick wall in which has stymied his progression as he was twice choked out via rear naked choke by the underdog. The first submission loss came when he faced then debuting welterweight Benson Henderson and once more in his ensuing effort after being dropped by a Gunnar Nelson left-hook-straight right combo.

At 6'2" tall with a 74.5 inch reach, Thatch is a monstrous 170 pound fighter from a physical perspective. What's more, the former Resurrection Fighting Alliance welterweight champion knows how to best implement these tools. A Karate fightersince age four, Thatch is excellent at standing outside on the fringe working behind a long piercing jab as he will dart in and out of the pocket. Additionally, the Colorado native possesses a devastating Muay-Thai clinch where he will brutalize his man with savage knees to the midsection. On the ground the 30-year-old Team Elevation Fight Team product has a dangerous offensive Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu attack as he is especially swift at taking his opponents back in a scramble and sinking in the rear-naked choke.

On paper this appears to be an absolute barn burner of a scrap where one man is certainly going to get knocked out stiff. Both men have tremendous kickboxing skills with the capacity to render the other unconscious. That said, this isn't a kickboxing match and with two consecutive losses coming in, "Rukus" can ill-afford a third. Meaning it's very well likely that Thatch take the path of least resistance rather leave things to chance trading shots with a man who could knock out a jackass. Given the disparity between the two regarding their grappling games. I envision we see "ADCC Thatch" in this tilt as he makes Elliot Marshall proud by exploiting the Afghan fighters Achilles Heel by bringing him to the mat and polishing him off with a quick submission to get back on track.

prediction: Brandon Thatch via submission rear naked choke


_______



170 lbs.: Erick Silva vs. Nordine Taleb

After initially blazing through his UFC competition like a California wildfire, Brazilian Erick Silva looked like a can't miss prospect. Even though he was already 29-years old in his Octagon debut, the former Jungle Fight organization Welterweight Champion, the ultra-dynamic Silva who holds black belts in both Karate and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu was on course to blitz through the opposition en route to challenging for the 170 pound strap sooner than later. However, five years later and "Indio" has yet to find the sort of consistency that would make him a division champion. A foot-long little athlete who is always on his front foot, Silva is a kill or be killed fighter and he only has one gear which is wide open. With all of his wins inside the Octagon coming within the opening stanza, Silva is a flat out wrecking machine for the first five minutes, but if his opponent can weather the early onslaught they have a terrific chance of coming back and defeating a cardio depleted Brazilian down the stretch.

While Canadian standout Nordine Taleb was unable to find success in two different seasons of The Ultimate Fighter -- Ultimate Fighter Nations: Canada vs. Australia and/or the Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn -- he was still able to ink a multi-fight deal with the preeminent mixed martial arts organization in the world nevertheless. Following his series defeat, the Bellator veteran made his way into the Octagon where he has since gone a respectable 3-1 with a trio of unanimous decision victories. Entering his contest with a Silva on the heels of a first round loss, the 34-year-old Canadian is entering the octagon with a loss and then need of a victory if he has any desires of being more than a mere journeyman. With a background in the Bruce Lee invented martial art Jeet-Kun-Do as well as holding a Brown Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Taleb is a versatile fighter competent in all aspects of the game.

Physically Taleb is an imposing figure at 170 pounds and 6'1" tall he'll enjoy two inch height advantage over the 5'11" Silva while both men have a 74 inch reach. Anatomical attributes aside, it is Silva -- while fresh -- who will be the quicker more powerful and more elusive fighter. Although Silva has struggled to find consistency inside the Octagon and has fallen to the upper-echelon talent, it is still more impressive than what Taleb has accomplished thus far. Indeed, Silva only lost fights against top of the food chain caliber opposition yet does have victories over respectable competition in Charlie Brenneman, Mike Rhodes, Jason High, and Josh Koscheck among others. Additionally, he is put on very competitive performances against Matt Brown, Neil Magny and Jon Fitch which were all within a hairsbreadth of losing to the Brazilian dynamo. Meanwhile, the Tri-Star product has no top victories to his name while losing to the likes of middling talent including Marius Zaromskis and the completely sub-standard Mike King and Tyler Manawaroa in respective "TUF" series.

To date, Taleb's most impressive victory is likely against a shopworn Pete Sell when he won the Ring of Combat 170 pound championship in 2011. His three UFC wins have came against a mishmash of pedestrian fighters including Vik Grujic and Chris Clements while picking up a split decision victory against a respectable Li Jingliang. At any rate, Taleb has demonstrated that each and every time he steps up in competition to face off against a top level fighter he gets another "L" in his win/loss column. This was most recently demonstrated when he faced Brazilian juggernaut Warlley Alves and was choked out with a guillotine in the second round of the fight.

With all of the information available, I see Silva being able to do what he does best and that is carve his way through another average pugilistic talent like Taleb within the opening five minutes of action. Quite simply, the Canadian just isn't proficient enough on the defensive end to deal with the type of firepower the Silvas is going to bring his way.

Prediction: Silva TKO
 
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