General MMA discussion and future lines - March 2016

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Tom Breese vs Sean Strickland

amazing fight. Lines will be interesting, and definitely determine what I do, since this is hard to call. Thinking Strickland by dec will be a line with good value.
 
Rory MacDonald vs. Stephen Thompson
Donald Cerrone vs. Patrick Cote
Elias Theodorou vs. Sam Alvey
Steve Bosse vs. Sean O'Connell
Tamdan McCrory vs. Krysztof Jotko
Misha Cirkunov vs. Ion Cutelaba
Oliver Aubin-Mercier vs. Thibault Gouti
Alex Garcia vs. Colby Covington
Jason Saggo vs. Leandro Silva

^^^^Lots of new fights added to Ottawa FN

Do not sleep on Cutelaba!!! Kid is a beast, and will gladly play him if Misha is juiced. EDIT actually at any dog odds i'll be on Cutelaba.

Love Saggo but we'll see where the line is.
Like Covington or the over.
Like the over for OAM/Gouti
Like McCrory
Like Elias by dec
 
Hoping Breese is favourite defo fading him.

Elias dec for sure hedged with Alvey KO. Garcia Colby over for sure.

Struve now -160 Betsafe lol
 
WTF Jones arrested for probation violation??
 
I didn't hammer him as huge favorite lol when he opened at -280 it was too good to pass up value wise so I parlayed it with the over in the Tate fight. I knew that line would sky rocket and I'm degenerate as hell, I have action on every fight. I'm always vocal with my opinions, right or wrong, so it wouldn't be hard to find that thread and see all the reasonings I thought Nate was potentially one of the worst matchups for Conor. I flat out stated I expected nothing less than a competitive fight. Conor's best asset has been his reach and playing with ranges, and Nate is longer, does the same thing, and has never been out struck.

As you can tell by my post you quoted, I'd be torn on Conor vs RDA now for the reasons stated. I might have lucked out cause I definitely was gonna hammer Conor, but who knows, it's a completely different fight and somehow questions still linger to me regarding just how good Conor is.

This post doesn't make any sense to me unless you freerolled. If the fight was going to be competitive, how is -280 too good to pass up?
 
This post doesn't make any sense to me unless you freerolled. If the fight was going to be competitive, how is -280 too good to pass up?

IIRC Joe B and a few others jumped on that line right away just for movement. They were betting Conor would get bet up from there and then freerolled like you said. I'd have done the same had I grabbed that opener but he was already -350 or so by the time I saw the line was up.
 
This post doesn't make any sense to me unless you freerolled. If the fight was going to be competitive, how is -280 too good to pass up?
IIRC Joe B and a few others jumped on that line right away just for movement. They were betting Conor would get bet up from there and then freerolled like you said. I'd have done the same had I grabbed that opener but he was already -350 or so by the time I saw the line was up.
Yup. Didn't free roll, but hedged out of the parlay after the over hit in Tate's fight. Tried to free roll when Nate was +700 on live bet but missed it.

Keep in mind it's not like we had much time to think about it. Literally right after the fight was announced that line was up. I was playing the movement, not the fight. I hadn't thought much at all about how it could play out at that time.
 
that diaz line is going to be evens across the board soon, lot of ppl betting him I've heard. It's a bit strange the fight hasn't been announced yet, possible negotiations on the weight I suppose. but didn't kavanagh say last week, that the fight was going to be official last weekend? seems strange, with nate effectively calling out gsp too, he didn't seem like he wanted the rematch for reasons other than $, so a gsp fight would be a huge cash cow as well. ah well at least on the plus side if this rematch doesn't happen I won't have a ton of cash tied up for ages.

EDIT: yeah a lot of ppl played conor for line movement last time, in anticipation of all the irish/casuals money coming in, which didn't happen as much as usual but still pushed the line down. I think this is partially why diaz is an underdog again, bookies overestimating the amount of ppl and $ that will be bet on conor this time.
 
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UFC Fight Night 87:
May 8, 2016 | Ahoy Rotterdam | Rotterdam, Netherlands

MAIN CARD

Antonio Silva +150
Stefan Struve -190

Gunnar Nelson +100
Albert Tumenov -140

———-

UFC 199:
June 4, 2016 | The Forum | Los Angeles, California

MAIN CARD

Bobby Green +160
Dustin Poirier -210

———-

UFC 200:
July 9, 2016 | T-Mobile Arena | Las Vegas, Nevada

MAIN CARD

Travis Browne +220
Cain Velasquez -300

Derek Brunson +160
Gegard Mousasi -210
 
o1.5 velasquez-browne -120 looks decent...
 
Tumenov is 4 real.

Green has value but that fight will hit the cards as a more solid pick. They're fighting in Los Angeles (ingleHOOD to be exact) I might go to that card and hopefully I don't get shot.

The over for Cain/Browne yes.

Moose will catch Brunson coming in either by KO, or Brunson will freeze up as a result of getting his nose busted.
 
I hate when they do this when I've been waiting for all the UFN 86 odds lol
 
Bookies love Gunnar. Shame I missed Tumenov -140.

Really hoping people bet Bigfoot.
 
no kidding

sucks even more when you've lost $1300 the night before

FUCK i'm dumb.
Damn, sorry man. I got hit hard on Sunday, too, for only slightly less

It's bound to happen to everyone every once in a while. Just gotta remember we're in for the long haul
 
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