Your Official UFC 198 Bets

first run:

1.31u werdum-miocic O2.0 -131

0.5u Belfort RD 1 +650

0.5u silva DEC +214

1.65u cyborg-smith RD 1 -165

0.5u shogun NSC +115

4u Maia -123 (this is closing parlays, that's why cheap)
0.2u brown RD 3 +1750

0.5u alves-barberena U1.5 +135

1.5u lineker -150

1.65u cummins -165

3.5u tukhugov -140
 
Hall NSC - $10.00 for $0.00
Hall KO - $10.00 for $0.00
Font - $10.00 for $17.00 (bought out after reading posts here)
Lineker & Cyborg - $17.00 for $12.92 (bought out; hope I didn't get greedy with the Borg add)

Miocic-Werdum O2.5 & Nog-Cummins O1.5 - $5.00 for $7.95
Anderson & Maia & Cummins - $23.47 for $38.60
Anderson & Cyborg - $30.00 for $22.80
Souza & Maia & Alves - $20.00 for $21.36
Belfort-Souza O1.5 & Smith-Justino O1.5 & Tukhugov - $2.00 for $19.00
Werdum & Alves & Santos - $20.00 for $31.03
Trinaldo & Alves & Santos & Cyborg - $20.46 for $27.89
Alves & Santos & Cyborg - $52.10 for $31.26

Went Brazilian-heavy, parlay-happy in the end. I think we'll see a lot of hometown victors (but have no faith in Shogun or Nog). Threw away $2 as tribute to Smith's ear.

I'll be shitting myself during the Alves fight. How did I let him in 4 parlays? Yikes.
 
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£1500 Alves + Santos + Cyborg @ -140

£926 MM (cashed) + Maia @ +100

£70 Cummins Nog o 1.5 + Alves + Cyborg for £222 (theres a line error on one of these im hoping goes unnoticed)

£100 Belfort r1 @ +700

£30 Belfort r1 KO +900
 
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This will be the most I've ever wagered on a single card, with a lot of it on Corey Anderson. It's rare I go over 2 units on a bet so you can see my confidence in these.

Singles:
Uriah Hall +135 2u
Uriah Hall KO +325 1u
Uriah Hall SC=No action +110 2u

Corey Anderson -180 8u
Corey Anderson KO +550 1u
Corey Anderson Rd 3 +1475 .2u

Rob Font +165 2u

Patrick Cummins -210 5u

Parlays:
Alves + Corey Anderson + Cummins 3u

Alves + Corey Anderson + Santos + Cummins/Nogueira o1.5rds 3u

Maia + Cummins + Santos 1u

And of course got some hail mary parlays and other small flyers mixed in.
 
Singles
Werdum: $12.50 to win $7.81 Loss
Maia (-3.5): $10 to win $6.06 $16.06
Lil Nog (+3.5): $8.75 to win $5.83 $14.58
Shogun: $6.25 to win $11.25 $17.50
Font: $6.25 to win $10.31 Loss

Brown/Maia ITD: $6.25 to win $4.46 $10.71
Moraes/Chagas over 1.5: $5 to win $5.50 $10.50
Awad (-3.5): $5 to win $3.03 $8.03
Belfort (scorecards = no action): $2.50 to win $7.05 Loss

Villanueva: $2.50 to win $1.92 $4.42
Schilling: $2.50 to win $1.56 Loss

Jacoby: $1.25 to win $3.88 Loss
Ritani-Coe: $1.25 to win $3.75 $1.25
Reger: $1.25 to win $3.50 Loss
Mo/Davis under 2.5: $1.25 to win $3.13 Loss
Young: $1.25 to win $1.14 Loss

Risk of $73.75 $83.05

Parlays
Field over Rory (Players) + Cyborg + Alves: $12.50 to win $4.75 Loss
Cyborg/Smith won't start 3 + Werdum/Stipe starts 2: $10 to win $5.03 Loss
Field over Spieth (Players) + Alves + Maia: $6.25 to win $3.93 Loss
Field over Day (Players) + Marq/Santos ITD: $6.25 to win $5.03 Loss
Field over Rose (Players) + Trinaldo + Piccolotti: $3.75 to win $3.38 $7.63
Not Cyborg Dec + Not Carneiro Dec + Over 2.5 Decisions: $3.75 to win $1.91 Loss

Field over Day (Players) + Grigorian + Van Soest: $1.25 to win $2.72 Loss

Risk of $41.25 $7.63

TOTAL RISK OF $115 $90.68

TOTALS FOR 2016: Initial Risk was $165, Running total is $163.73 Running Profit = $-1.37 (Approximate ROI for year -0.12%)
TOTALS FOR 2015: Initial Risk was $95, Running total is $263.68 Running Profit: $168.68 Approximate ROI for year 3.901%)
TOTALS FOR 2014: Initial Risk was $127.50 Running Total is $148.35 Running Profit = $20.85 (Approximate ROI for year 0.74%)
TOTALS FOR 2013: Initial Risk was $232.50, Running total is $583.75 Running Profit = $351.25 (Approximate ROI for year: 9.34%)
TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2016: $29 into $2712.91 Total Profit = $2693.92 (Approximate ROI: 12.12%)
 
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2u - Font @ +157.5 Average
.5u - Font/Lineker Over 1.5 @ -130
1u - Maia Finish @ +127
1u - Miocic/Werdum O2 @ -131 (edit: fixed typo, had no round 3, is now correct)

Parlay
1u - Maia @ -260 + Smith/Justino No Round 2 @ -164 (total +123)
 
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alves, santos, cyborg: £650 returns £1176

alves, santos, cyborg: £350 returns £578

miocic: £236 returns £553

pat cummins, deontay wilder: £108 returns £291
 
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$2k on Anderson
$2k on Cummins
$250 on Anderson+Maia
$200 on Anderson+Maia+Cummins

surprised to see how many is on Shogun tbh
 
few hail mary parlays...

Souza by dec, Maia by dec, Cyborg rd 1, Shotgun by KO - £5 returns £734.83

Souza Rd 2, Anderson v Rua under 2.5, Brown via KO, Cyborg rd 2 - £5 returns £1362.60

Maia, Belfort, Rua, Werdum MLs - £10 returns £189.34

And a couple of more slightly realistic ones....

Cummins ML, Linker ML, Trinaldo ML, Alves sub, Cyborg rd 1 - £10 returns £87.82

Maia, Alves, Lineker, Cummins, Trinaldo, Moraes, Tukhugov all straight ML - £20 returns £181.04
 
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Vitor KO 1 or 2 round +500
Vitor KO 1 round - +900
 
Your selections
Bellator Fighting Championships Muhammed Lawal v Phil Davis
15-05-2016 04:45
Match Betting
Phil Davis @ 4/9

UFC Matches Fabricio Werdum v Stipe Miocic
15-05-2016 05:30
Match Betting
Stipe Miocic @ 5/4

UFC Matches Ronaldo Souza v Vitor Belfort
15-05-2016 05:00
Match Betting
Vitor Belfort @ 2/1

UFC Matches Cristiane Justino v Leslie Smith
15-05-2016 03:30
Match Betting
Cristiane Justino @ 1/14

UFC Matches Mauricio Rua v Corey Anderson
15-05-2016 03:00
Match Betting
Mauricio Rua @ 7/4

UFC Matches Demian Maia v Matt Brown
15-05-2016 02:30
Match Betting
Matt Brown @ 9/4

UFC Matches Warlley Alves v Bryan Barberena
15-05-2016 02:00
Match Betting
Warlley Alves @ 1/5

UFC Matches Thiago Santos v Nate Marquardt
15-05-2016 01:30
Match Betting
Thiago Santos @ 2/7

UFC Matches Antonio Rogerio Nogueira v Patrick Cummins
15-05-2016 01:00
Match Betting
Patrick Cummins @ 2/5

UFC Matches John Lineker v Rob Font
15-05-2016 01:00
Match Betting
Rob Font @ 11/8

UFC Matches Francisco Trinaldo v Yancy Medeiros
15-05-2016 00:30
Match Betting
Yancy Medeiros @ 13/8

UFC Matches Sergio Moraes v Luan Chagas
15-05-2016 00:00
Match Betting
Sergio Moraes @ 1/4

UFC Matches Renato Moicano v Zubaira Tukhugov
14-05-2016 23:30
Match Betting
Renato Moicano @ 6/4

Your Bets
Accumulator (13)
1 line at £5.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £5.00
Potential returns: £19,644.93
 
UFC 198 Risk: 2,251.60
werdum -147: 220.50 for 150 / werdum SPLIT: 15 for 139.50 / O2.0: 131 for 100 / O2.5: 56 for 50 / miocic SPLIT: 15 for 110.25
belfort RD 1: 50 for 325 / jacare ITD: 33 parlay
cyborg-smith RD1: 164.80 for 100 - 33 parlay
shogun RD1: 12.50 for 100 / shogun NSC: 100 for 106.04 / anderson
alves ITD: 181.80 for 105 - 33 parlay / U1.5: 50 for 67.50 / barberena
maia -270: 100 for 37.04 - 300 parlays / brown RD 3: 20 for 350
santos-marquardt: idk
medeiros +203: 100 for 202.50 / trinaldo
lineker -151: 302 for 200 / lineker SUB: 15 for 169.50 / font
cummins -165: 165 for 100 / lilnog
moraes RD 3: 20 for 150 / chagas
tukhugov -133: 200 for 150 / moicano
props
parlays
100 for 97.94 maia -270 & wade-khabilov O2.5 -225 (ufn 87)
100 for 93.85 maia -260 & Kowalkiewicz -250 (ufn 87)
100 for 96.62 maia -270 & edwards -230 (ufn 87)
33 for 102.55 jacare ITD -166, cyborg-smith RD1 -195 & alves ITD -144
---

post weigh-in.

will update tomorrow before fights start.
 
So far I have:
2u Corey Anderson
1u Patrick Cummins
1u Moraes/Alves parlay
1u Tukhugov
1u Trinaldo/Alves/Maia parlay
Hail mary parlay on Tukhugov/Moraes/Trinaldo/Cummins/Lineker/Santos/Alves/Maia/Anderson/Cyborg/Jacare/Werdum
1u Lineker
3u Werdum
 
7bpjP

DB8ty


Just a couple of fun ones. Any thoughts? Here's hoping for a red panty night.
 
Well I had a pretty good looking set of plays, then I got a bit drunk and started chasing crazy underdogs and big favourites, so lets see what happens. Might be a big fail if both Shogun and Lil'Nog wins and Cyborg doesnt win in R1, but I have a good gut feeling about these. I stopped listening to the MMA Vivi since they tend to convince me to put too much money on prelims fight I don't know enough about... The red ones are the Bellator fights I've betted on.

Skärmklipp.JPG
 
7u Anderson -117
2u Jacare ITD -110
0,3u Belfort +250

5u Mighty Mouse + Maia +100
2u Mighty Mouse + Maia -122
3u KK/Clarke O2.5 + Jacare -130
1u Horiguchi + Jacare -172
3u Cummins + Trinaldo/Medeiros O1.5 +100
1,5u Santos + Lineker -115
1u Santos + Trinaldo/Medeiros O1.5 -133

0,5u Cyborg dec +1100
0,25u Belfort r1 +700
0,35u Shogun KO/TKO +425
0,1u Anderson r3 +1600
0,1u Brown r3 +2500
 
Insane amount of action on this card. I've added, hedged, etc. enough to not know exact unit sizes on most of my bets. Sloppy way to do it (and I have a general idea) but it's how I roll. I will just put small, medium, large next to bets. Large are 3+u. Small are under 1u. These are all mixes of straight and parlays.

Werdum ML-medium at -145
Miocic dec-small at +331
Jacare itd-big at -103
Jacare sub-small at +155
Vitor rd 1-small at +650
Cyborg rd 1-big at -155
Cyborg rd 2-small at +400
Anderson ML-very big (4+u) at combined -175 or so
Anderson KO-small at +550
Anderson -3.5-medium at +135
Shogun itd-small at +310
Alves sub-small at +135
Maia ML-very big (3.5+u) at combined -250ish
Maia sub-small at +160
Maia dec-small at +190
Santos KO-small at -130
Madeiros dec-small at +450
Linekar ML-medium at -150
Font +3.5-medium at -115
Cummins -3.5-medium at +120
Chagas ML-small at +375
Carneiros dec-small at +354


Biggest action of the year for me pre fight I think. Such strong leans on some fights. Hope I'm not reading these wrong!
 
Parlays


Maia + Werdum 580 to win 635

Alves/barb o1.5 , lineker/font o1.5 , trinaldo, maia, Souza, Werdum
200 to win 2100


Edit :

Just added,

lineker/font 01.5, trinaldo, souza, santos, moraes


200 to win 858



Edit: added 110 on Cyborg to win by decision pays 1045
crazy good value imo
 
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Ive added a few other small plays further to my bets posted a few days ago but cant be arsed to type them all up. About £3k staked tho most ever.
 
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