General MMA discussion and future lines - May 2016

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I've already posted this, but I think the lines on Gadelha are all off. I think this could/should be a coin flip by fight time. Their 1st fight was razor close (I thought Gadelha won it). And although JJ has been impressive in her fights since that fight, they were all great stylistic opportunities. Carla and Penne are both small for the weight class, are grapplers who couldn't take her down, and have below average standup. Valerie is big for the weight class, but almost too big, which has been shown by her move up to 125. She only had a couple good rounds in her. Plus JJ is/was the better striker anyway.

Gadelha has only had one fight since the one with JJ, but it was an absolute destruction of Aguilar who was highly regarded in the weight class.

With all that said, nothing has really changed for me since their first fight. They have both looked amazing. I personally view this as a coin flip. Maybe very slight lean JJ cus she's champ and wins the trash talk/mental game.

Okay. Now that I say this a coin flip, Gadelha is sitting at +190. Furthermore, the fight going to a DEC is like -250, but Gadehla DEC is +350. Since JJ hasn't lost yet, I think she'll lose by DEC if she does lose.

I love the Gadelha DEC +350. I wouldn't be surprised if the odds were even by fight time adnd Gadehla DEC was like +180. So I think this is a very close fight that is going to a decision. This is when I bring up that this is Poland vs Brazil. This fight is being held during the three event weekend. There are 4 Brazilians fighting for a title that weekend (RDA, Gadehla, Aldo, Nunes). I have a very strong feeling the crowd will most likely be more pro brazilian than pro Poland/JJ.

Now on top of everything I just said, Gadehla Split DEC is sitting at +1000... Enough said. I really like Gadehla ML, DEC, split DEC at current odds.

JJ NSC -148 is nice, too

This fight is only 5 weeks away, btw. Not too long

Agree with all of this other than that I think JJ won the first fight. But close and competitive throughout. I'm on basically all of the same stuff as you for this fight.
 
Think I disagree with the few posts above re: JJ/Gadelha. The first fight was very close and IIRC I scored it for Gadelha at the time. That being said, I think JJ puts in a more convincing night of work here. 5 rounds instead of 3 favors JJ here as does her 3 fights of championship experience vs Gadelha'a 1 since that first meeting. I think Gadelha might have some success early on, but if she forces those TD attempts too much she'll pay for it as the fight wears on. I expect JJ to start to pull ahead sometime in round 2 and clearly take 3, 4 & 5 on the scorecards. Gadelha looked good in her one bout, but Joanna has had lots of time to work that takedown defence since they last
 
Think I disagree with the few posts above re: JJ/Gadelha. The first fight was very close and IIRC I scored it for Gadelha at the time. That being said, I think JJ puts in a more convincing night of work here. 5 rounds instead of 3 favors JJ here as does her 3 fights of championship experience vs Gadelha'a 1 since that first meeting. I think Gadelha might have some success early on, but if she forces those TD attempts too much she'll pay for it as the fight wears on. I expect JJ to start to pull ahead sometime in round 2 and clearly take 3, 4 & 5 on the scorecards. Gadelha looked good in her one bout, but Joanna has had lots of time to work that takedown defence since they last
If Gadelha does indeed put on a strong R1 performance like one would think, you can get a nice hedge on JJ by live bet. This is one of the fights I'm most looking forward to for LB purposes.

Lets not forget about Gadehla's standup either, though. She can hang with JJ there unlike Carla or Penne
 
If Gadelha does indeed put on a strong R1 performance like one would think, you can get a nice hedge on JJ by live bet. This is one of the fights I'm most looking forward to for LB purposes.

Lets not forget about Gadehla's standup either, though. She can hang with JJ there unlike Carla or Penne

Agree with all of that. I do think her standup is slightly behind JJ but she can keep it competitive there if her gas tank holds up.
 
If Gadelha does indeed put on a strong R1 performance like one would think, you can get a nice hedge on JJ by live bet. This is one of the fights I'm most looking forward to for LB purposes.

Lets not forget about Gadehla's standup either, though. She can hang with JJ there unlike Carla or Penne

This is SO much the key and a great point. This isn't simply wrestler vs striker and if the wrestler can't get the TD she's screwed. Claudia isn't the striker JJ is, but she's absolutely good enough to hang and land and thus make JJ respect her hands. Which means JJ can't keep her hands too low anticipating the sprawl.
 
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