Bellator 158 - Daley vs Lima - London

Seems like daley is getting bet down from +190 today ... don't agree with it but now's prolly the time to bet him if you plan to.
Sticking with Lima.
 
I've never had a successful Bellator event so I decided to try two round robins just for fun. Very small on both:

Lima -185/Thompson-Mitrione o1.5 +173/Not Page ITD +350

Daley-Lima o2.5 -135/Thompson +225/Santos-Page o1.5 +250
 
Going with a 'less is more' betting strategy this time. Lima is a better fighter than Daley, and if he doesn't get caught with a left hook he should beat Daley by stoppage or decision.

Bellator 158
Risk $387.72

Douglas Lima (-140) vs Paul Daley $280.00 for $200.00
Francis Carmont wins by 3 round decision (+290) vs Lukasz Klinger $34.48 for $100.00

Parlay:
Michael Page/Evangelista Santos Under 1½ (-210) + Matt Mitrione/Oli Thompson Under 1½ (-166) $73.24 for $100.01
 
When does main card start? Im confused by London time ;)
 
Does Cyborg have a ~20% chance of heel hooking this dude, or perhaps landing some miracle strike...? I'm willing to bet 1u at +625 to find out.
 
Does Cyborg have a ~20% chance of heel hooking this dude, or perhaps landing some miracle strike...? I'm willing to bet 1u at +625 to find out.

Odds about right imo. If Cyborg does pull it off it's gonna be like his last fight though where it happens early. But most likely he gets stomped within 1 round. The bet here is the under imo. I got it at -240. Missed the opener where odds were better but it went all the way to -310 and is now back to -280 (5d). I cannot see this thing going past rd 1. Page is too aggressive (and probably too good) for it to last long. He's either gonna steamroll Santos early (most likely) or Santos will pull off another sub or miracle strike like you said (and that will be early too).
 
Also on the o1.5 in the Gallagher fight... Cutting's last two submission losses have been when his opponent pushed the pace to an insane degree, which I don't expect from Gallagher's long distance SBG style, and the other was by Brabo from half guard, which is a sub you need to get hit with once to learn to avoid. I think he will be good enough to avoid the whole 'takedown, side control, mount, back, RNC' scenario enough of a % of the time.
 
Regret betting on Belly... Tape delay fucking sucks. I don't even know what fights happening right now
 
Benson Henderson vs Patricio Freire in August

Dk what Patricio is thinking moving to 155. Dude always looked like he could make 135
 
Please no big prelim spoilers @Sham5916910 - it's impossible for us that are not attending the event to watch it live (What a ridiculous fail from Bellator btw). I don't mean to come across grumpy - hope you're having a great event so far! :)

I'm not too confident in anything on this card but threw out some very small prop bets:

.5u on Francis Carmont by decision @ +325
.2u on Michael Page by submission @ +550
.2u on Evangelista Santos in R1 @ +1400

Mainly just hoping for an exciting event and a high level striking battle in the main event. Good luck fellas!
 
Please no big prelim spoilers @Sham5916910 - it's impossible for us that are not attending the event to watch it live (What a ridiculous fail from Bellator btw). I don't mean to come across grumpy - hope you're having a great event so far! :)

I'm not too confident in anything on this card but threw out some very small prop bets:

.5u on Francis Carmont by decision @ +325
.2u on Michael Page by submission @ +550
.2u on Evangelista Santos in R1 @ +1400

Mainly just hoping for an exciting event and a high level striking battle in the main event. Good luck fellas!

I'd expect that the results are going to be everywhere. Are you planning on watching the tape delay later without any knowledge of who wins/loses? That's not going to be easy.
 
I'd expect that the results are going to be everywhere. Are you planning on watching the tape delay later without any knowledge of who wins/loses? That's not going to be easy.
I'm planning on watching it as soon as it becomes available (I think the UK tape delay is immediately after the event).

It's not a disaster if the result of a fight or two is spoiled for me but I'd like to watch it with as little knowledge of what happened as possible. I'm pretty good at avoiding the frontpage of MMA news outlets and such but I can't stay out of this thread when an event is going ;)
 
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