UFC 202 - McGoat vs Diaz II - Vegas

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Stop with the line movement being a determining factor on who will win the fight. This is one of the biggest misconceptions amateur bettors seem to think carries actual weight. UFC market is not the same as NFL, NBA, MLB, EPL etc... the market can easily be manipulated because of the low limits relative to the big leagues. You can have some rich whale millionaire betting max limits on his favorite fighter and it skews the line. Does not mean the line change is $harp. $6500 max bet limit is peanuts compared to the established big boy leagues. There may be time when line movement is indicative of $harps hammering a fighter for value but it balances out with mugs betting their favorite fighters.

Not to sound holier than thou, but take it from a pro, I do this for a living and I study the sporting markets thus I know what I'm talking about. You see a 2-3 point movement in the NFL it probably means something.

- Barry
I never even stated anything regarding who will win the fight or who I thought was going to win the fight. It was simply an observation. There are many people here who want to bet Johnson and/or Cerrone, and as the line has moved quite significantly so I thought I would share my observation.
 
Put your life savings on Conor. Dont be foolish in thinking Diaz will get lucky again.

All you Diaz bettors will be crying tonight.
 
yeah ''luck'' is when you take everything another dude have to offer, then clip him on the feet, and choke him out in the 2nd round.
 

I warned you guys, prepare for utter disappointment when Nate loses tonight andafter tonight Imma be rolling in cash. {<Mcgoat}

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yeah ''luck'' is when you take everything another dude have to offer, then clip him on the feet, and choke him out in the 2nd round.

you gotta admit if your diaz your relying on luck (your chin) not giving out randomly which is a distinct possibility as we all know
 
Guys, thoughts about Means dec +350? I think this has a decent chance of hitting. Means breaks guys but isn't really an explosive finisher.

I do agree, but have hit Means by TKO/KO @ 2.0. He still pay off on his cases with USADA, so he would like to get back making som money. A little tell to me that he'll be going af a bonus as well. Who wouldn't? If you had a really low income job, and then again getting a chance to change that yourself. Means needs to perform either way, and I think it was Ez earlier who said, that he will be too technical for his opponent. I couldn't agree more. I think he will hit him and do if often with his precise striking. Also those elbows of him in the clinch could really hit once Hamasi goes for the TD. I would only be worried for Means if Hamasi can take him down and hold him down.

Also the 8-10 days late notice. After looking at his record, Hamasi almost only win against fighters that are lower than him or near the same high. Means will have an reach advantage of 3 inches and height advantage of 2 inches. Nut much, bul will still make a boxing/striking wise advantage for the already more technical striker Means.

(perhaps some typing errors. Not sober ATM) :D

Rumble fastest KO +550

Lim fastest KO +450

On those

Which bookie mate?
 
Magny in R3 or DEC @ 2.13

Thoughts???

Is it just me or is this a pretty nice line? If larkin wins, it should be by a DEC IMO, and Magny still could turn it on and win in R3 if he is behind on the score cards. It also helps that Magny is a fighter that most definitely goes after it if he knows he have to.
 
For Mcgoat bettors

Is there a reason to play his ml or anything over rounds 1-2 finish ?

Currently at about +220

Is there any more likely outcome for Mcgoat backers ?
 
Watched some of the "Mac life" videos. Either Conor is a god and is never on the wrong end in training, or the videos are edited in his favor ;)
 
Not much for me tonight. Just small on Larkin and Diaz

want to bet the dirty bird SU. Lol

Is his opponent good? He just fought like 2 weeks ago and KOed a 75 year old Jorge patino
 
I do agree, but have hit Means by TKO/KO @ 2.0. He still pay off on his cases with USADA, so he would like to get back making som money. A little tell to me that he'll be going af a bonus as well. Who wouldn't? If you had a really low income job, and then again getting a chance to change that yourself. Means needs to perform either way, and I think it was Ez earlier who said, that he will be too technical for his opponent. I couldn't agree more. I think he will hit him and do if often with his precise striking. Also those elbows of him in the clinch could really hit once Hamasi goes for the TD. I would only be worried for Means if Hamasi can take him down and hold him down.

Also the 8-10 days late notice. After looking at his record, Hamasi almost only win against fighters that are lower than him or near the same high. Means will have an reach advantage of 3 inches and height advantage of 2 inches. Nut much, bul will still make a boxing/striking wise advantage for the already more technical striker Means.

(perhaps some typing errors. Not sober ATM) :D



Which bookie mate?
5d
 
Not sure if I'm betting the main event yet but if I do I think it's going to be Nate KO/TKO @ +650.

I don't really expect this to go much different than the first fight for some reason, most of it playing out on the feet. Nates hands set up the submission last time (hell, for quite a lot of his submission wins) and I think Conor will have it in his head if he's hurt not to shoot a takedown after how it played out last time. Granted it's a case of whether that mentality would survive when you've had your bell rang and you're dazed, but yeah. I don't think Nate will shoot a takedown if he has Conor hurt either, he'll just keep throwing combos until the ref steps in or Conor drops/shoots. The more I play it out in my head, I can see it going similar to the first fight but ending like Diaz/Maynard.

I think if Nate wins tonight that a submission is only a slight bit more likely than finishing him with strikes, but it's over double the odds. Plus finishing him by strikes would add that mentality of "I can beat you wherever I want, even at your own game.".
 
anyone got a betfair sportsbook account? they are paying double odds if mcgregor wins by ko/tko. pretty decent offer tbh
 
BetVictor have McGregor-Diaz to end by doctor stoppage at 16/1 +1600 which is a nice little hedge if you have Diaz. Unfortunately they no longer take my bets.
Damn I'm gonna have to see if 5D has anything like that because I could use a hedge
 
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