UFC on Fox 21: Condit vs Maia - Vancouver

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Nobody is going to follow you because you aren't making any sense. Plekz is the guy coming at you with a sledgehammer, and honestly so far from what you've posted you pretty much deserve it. I'm going to take the more subtle approach in an attempt to allow you to somehow explain what you've posted so far. Because honestly saying "the error estimating this probability" is complete and utter garbage.

YOU are the ones "estimating this probability". Your service, your "system", whatever. You can't on one hand tell us what your system believes the odds of fighter x winning and then turn around and say "But we are going to make a recommendation that completely disregards our probability because of (insert whatever silly word you want--variance, margin of error, whatever)". Why even calculate what you think the odds of fighter x winning are if you aren't then going to take that info, compare it to the current betting line, and place your wagers accordingly? You keep saying it's "not that simple". But in reality, it IS that simple.

Real talk: You are doing exactly what Plekz said you are doing. Hoping to have a good event and gain a couple subscribers. You'd have been better off just posting "Here, bet on these 5 guys" with no explanation at all. Instead you've posted a a bunch of nonsense. No offense, but you aren't the smartest guy in the room and we all just don't get it. I know English isn't your first language, but you completely botched this buddy. Nobody is going to pay you a dime from this site even if you get lucky and have a great event. The lack of any type of actual logic in making your picks has pretty much ensured that. Sorry man.

@mkess101 it is just fine that you express your opinion. What I don't get is why you all get so mad in the first place. None is forced to follow us, we are just showing our tips and tomorrow our results. We are committed to show them over a long period of time and we will let people make their minds looking at the results and not the chat.
 
That might explain not betting Oliveira. But it doesn't explain why you're betting favourites who have more expensive odds relative to your probability calculations.
It does in the other direction. If youpretty certain what the probability is and your distribution is pretty narrow, you might be willing to take a higher level of risk.
 
@mkess101 it is just fine that you express your opinion. What I don't get is why you all get so mad in the first place. None is forced to follow us, we are just showing our tips and tomorrow our results. We are committed to show them over a long period of time and we will let people make their minds looking at the results and not the chat.
Track on a third party or remain a laughing stock
 
we are doing it, even if "third party" could be the business of anyone else here.
Nah, your results are on your website only. Don't pull that shit. If you're selling picks you should be on a third party website like Cappertek
 
Nah, your results are on your website only. Don't pull that shit. If you're selling picks you should be on a third party website like Cappertek
You are absolutely right. Thank you for your comment.
 
You are absolutely right. Thank you for your comment.
Track on Cappertek or betMMA.tips and you have my respect, but good luck selling picks without at least a year of third party tracked results
 
fwiw I actually enjoy barry's style of writing and think he's funny and somehow talking in self-derision. He probably knows no one is taking him seriously and just having a good time, infersports on the other hand is just polluting us with nonsense and grossness tryin to scam ppl
 
Yo, everyone stop with the insults and back and forth. You can debate and disagree with Infer's posts without the flaming.

Infer, youre welcome to post your numbers but dont spam your site.

Thanks.
 
i think miller has the better skillset here and don't think he's as shot as people say. think he's worth a bet at dog odds.
 
So there you have it, 3 underdogs, one match to stay away from.

An average return for this evening of 69%, stronger than last weekend. We can afford to be wrong up to 4 of the 9 fights and still break even.

Stay tuned and follow us in twitter ;)

I actually love these guys. I get a little bored reading all these stupid in depth right ups from dudes he obviously try their best to cap fights correctly.

This wakes me up. Great comedy!! Makes me smile.
 
Seriously. Probably better to introduce yourself before advertising ones service.
 
Well that escalated quite a bit over night. I thought it was clear from his numbers he was trolling, surprised such a big fuss erupted lol.

Anyways, see yall tonight :)
 
Mainly lb for me tonight I think, I will have a small stab at Maia sub and split Dec pre bet

Was thinking of a 2 team but I honestly can't find one I like

Yeah was hard to find 2 let alone 3 teams on this event, am liking some prop flyers r4/r5 condit and split prop still for main event, nothing else line wise good so hopefully means live betting will be fun.

Wow every fight has great lb potential. Ukram any news on 365 schedule i can never see what you see must be cos i use my phone? They said main card only last time but offered lb halfway through fox prelims.

Yeah just checked its not looking good schedule for b365 says main card 3am only, hopefully it does pop up during main prelim's at one point still that schedule is incorrect most of the time and they have yet to take off the hunter fight.

Only good thing is its starting 10pm for UK !
 
PP for me with ladbrokes for the odd prop. Found a couple of lines i like on ladbrokes
 
yea, given that we only have a 10 fight card, the FOTN prices are bad.

the 4 main card bouts all have the best chance to get it (and all are about 4:1) -- i was hoping for miller-lauzon or maybe even pvz-bec to be higher.

looking like FOTN is a pass for me.
 
Chad Laprise vs Thibault Gouti

I want to include Laprise in a parlay but him missing weight scares me. What also scares me is Gouti hasn't gotten a UFC win yet and it's gotta be coming soon.

What is the most likely scenario for why Chad Laprise missed weight? Someone mentioned on here that he probably just outgrew that weight, but is it more likely that he suffered an injury or sickness?
 
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