Taking a stab at Pepey/De Lat Torre for FOTN at +650. Pepey's wild ass style lends itself to crazy fights against a lot of guys (unless like Elkins they can take him down and control him). Yeah he'll fade if it goes past 2 rounds but I have a feeling if De La Torre lasts past rd 1 this will end up a "just bleed" fan's type of fight.
Stabbed Formiga vs Ortiz for FOTN
not a bad choice.. 13 fight card, gonna be tough. i took shots at felder-trinaldo +550 and tiny one on franca-gillespie +1000
While I agree with the pick, I am in total agreement with the advice EZ gave you and thin you are most likely risking far too much on these tilts. I mean, 13.5u for what is for all intents and purposes a coin flip of a fight. Ummm! Uh uh!
Personally, I am putting a bit down on Francisco as I give him around a 60% chance of winning (though I could be persuaded otherwise) and would not talk someone off of Felder. But with the fight being in Brazil is what pushed me over the tipping point. But boy oh boy, there is no way in hell you could give me to put 13 units on a 38-year-old fighter who has a history of cardio problems Fighting against a fiery redhead marauder who is six years his junior and can put his lights out with a single blow. No. Fucking. Way!
...also, I believe that you are taking a huge gamble putting 7.5 units down on Juissier as that fight is also close and in my personal opinion shows no type of value where a bettor would risk that much money or said bout.
At any rate, BOL brother
I went back and forth so much on this one. Initially big on yahya and now im on tanaka for 1upulled the trigger on yahya -110. just think he gets the nod in close rounds in brazil.. tanaka is gonna fight the fight yahya wants...yahya DEC up to +258, too...
I know a few people here got a bit nervous thinking because Roy and BF are friends that Roy might not be looking to land the bomb early or that he'll make it a sparring match or just be content to take BF down and lay on him. But unless I'm wrong, I don't think Roy financially is set. He's made some $ sure, but $50k still matters to him I'd imagine. You look up certain guys who've been around a long time and have had big fights and the bonus $ just isn't as big a deal. I think Frank Mir's estimated net worth is around $10m? But I don't think Roy is in that category. I think he'll want the chance at that $.
6:30 estwhat time do the early prelims start?
I know a few people here got a bit nervous thinking because Roy and BF are friends that Roy might not be looking to land the bomb early or that he'll make it a sparring match or just be content to take BF down and lay on him. But unless I'm wrong, I don't think Roy financially is set. He's made some $ sure, but $50k still matters to him I'd imagine. You look up certain guys who've been around a long time and have had big fights and the bonus $ just isn't as big a deal. I think Frank Mir's estimated net worth is around $10m? But I don't think Roy is in that category. I think he'll want the chance at that $.
The only thing that scares me is the way Outlaw out muscled him and took his back. In fact, Gillespie had his back taken in r1 and nearly had the sub locked up (apparently) as the the round ended.
me too most i've ever hadGot an insane amount of money on this event.
I think the real sweating will start after Santos & Nelson easily win. But then everyone is staring at the last legs being Barao or Cyborg and then realizing Barry is heavy on them.
I might even throw in the towel and bet nover at that point
I think the real sweating will start after Santos & Nelson easily win. But then everyone is staring at the last legs being Barao or Cyborg and then realizing Barry is heavy on them.
I might even throw in the towel and bet nover at that point
I threw Barao dec in a couple hail mary parlays but otherwise avoiding him. Too juiced for me given all the factors. Nover isn't that good, Barao **should** handle him, but I can't pay his juice. Nover has been insanely hard to finish. If he's in the fight, you never know. I'd rather pay lower juice on the extremely likely outcomes of Roy and Cyborg finishing in rd 1.
Barao is the one heavily juiced favorite that I think might seriously burn people. I still think he wins, but man...-480 ML? No way. With Roy and Cyborg you can bypass the ML and go straight to the u1.5, u1.0, or Roy/Cyborg rd 1 props. With Barao, how could you have any confidence in how he wins? Even if you are confident he does win, doesn't seem like any props stand out. So you're stuck paying crazy juice.