So I think you're getting TOO much into the numbers. Here's what I mean w examples from the past:
My biggest play so far was on the Pelicans +3 at home versus the T Wolves. I thought the line was way too high, thinking it should prob be anywhere from pick to Pelicans -1.5. So in my opinion, the books were overrating the Timberwolves. That's when I go and look at their ATS record, to get a feel as to how correct the books have been in pricing the Wolves this season. Well, they were bad, both ATS and SU. So logically, if they have a bad ATS record and the line seemed too high, I can assume the books haven't adjusted their thoughts on the Wolves (the Wolves are a highly backed team this season. There is this notion that they were gonna be dark horses in the west coming into the season). If you ever check those websites that show you the % of public betting, that's another way of justifying the line. I believe that game had a 65% to 35% betting split, with more people on the Wolves. So why would the books need to adjust the lines if people are continuing to bet (and lose) on the Wolves. Eventually, it will happen and you can no longer fade them bc the line will be correct.
Now with all that being said, this was my thinking for Utah vs Houston: like you said, the Rockets have a stellar ATS record to date. But in the grand scheme of things, would you say that the Rockets are 3-4.5 points better than the Utah Jazz? I wouldn't. I think the teams are pretty much even, maybe a point advantage to the Rockets. Well, if you give the Jazz 3 points for home court (3.5 is prob more accurate bc they are a good home team), this line, I'm my opinion, should be more like Jazz -2.5. Then you factor in the revenge angle bc these teams are pretty even in terms of talent. Professional coaching staffs do a great job in terms of adjusting what went wrong in the first game and putting a gameplan together for the rematch (look at Brooklyn last night; they got spanked in LA earlier in the year and they beat the Clippers outright in Brooklyn last night). All these ATS trends tend to even out over the whole season. does that all make sense or did i just ramble?