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lando wouldn't quit if his jaw was brokenClassic robbie embellishing making it seem like a jaw breaking kick was just any old kick and he called timeout
lando wouldn't quit if his jaw was brokenClassic robbie embellishing making it seem like a jaw breaking kick was just any old kick and he called timeout
Don't let yourself get middled. You said it, yourself
If you are gonna hedge, you probably shouldn't have added the last legs
My honest advice is, unless you have a change of heart on your confidence level of the last two fights, is don't hedge. And I'm saying that being a saggo backer
Or just let it be and hedge if it's on the last leg, if you're committed to doing that. But make it a true hedge, not a prop that could middle you.
MMA - UFC - DEC 11
UFC 206: HOLLOWAY VS PETTIS AIR CANADA CENTRE @ TORONTO, ONTARIO, CANADA
*** FOR FIGHT PROPS PLEASE CALL, CALL CENTER ***
^^^ bookmaker
WTF? they been getting smoked on props? why would they do this, you can't even see the lines now online
that would be the roids.Kennedy looked in good shape and totally jacked, kelvin appeared to be his son during the weigh ins.
Kelvins not been stopped yet so I think kennedy could easily get a decision here if he edges r1, takes r2 off for a bigger r3, but that is just a theory for now.
I haven't been watching fights for about a year and a half, except for the past month where I've gotten back into it. I have caught most main events and Co mains. But i have tried to keep my opinions to myself since thats a long time in the fight game. But since kennedy hasnt fought in longer than I haven't been watching I feel ok with putting it out there. To be fair, i have not kept up on gastelum 100%. I caught his magny loss and hendricks win, but just half watched the fights with some friends. I wasn't studying it by any means.
I would also say that I dislike Kennedy as a persona. He is annoying and whiny to me. But I have always thought he looked excellent from a fighting skill stand point. I have always pictured him in the top 5 and if he returns to form then I think he still is. Gas could certainly win, but I think kennedy controls the fight. I think Kennedy's most likely way to defeat is if he goes low fight IQ and chooses to stand the whole time. If he chooses to grapple then I think kennedy has the advantage.
I like Kennedy at -140 and I love Kennedy Dec at +205.
Also, we have no clue how long such a long lay off will a fighter. Kennedy is now 37. So i could be waaaaaaay of and he might show up get smashed and retire.
Funny thing about Kennedy. As jacked as he gets. No matter if he flexes or screams. The dude just doesn't seem intimidating. He's like a big puffed up Nicholas cage.that would be the roids.
he needs to lose his shtick of being a badass army man, he just looks like a doofusFunny thing about Kennedy. As jacked as he gets. No matter if he flexes or screams. The dude just doesn't seem intimidating. He's like a big puffed up Nicholas cage.
Nope not at all. Vannata's angles and boxing will be too much for him. Makdessi is a decision machine I doubt he hurts Vannata. But on the other hand this fight is in canada and makdessi is canadian. Also is Makdessi is still under Firas? That makes things tricky though but id still go with lando.
I was touting Pettis NSC earlier in this thread as a line that I'd potentially go big on at the right odds. After all that's happened with the missing weight, weird excuses for losses, etc. I'm not nearly as confident. Still at +165 I think there's some really good value. Am I crazy or is this line off? Terminator level RDA couldn't stop Pettis, do we really think Max has anything more than an outside shot of doing it?
I was touting Pettis NSC earlier in this thread as a line that I'd potentially go big on at the right odds. After all that's happened with the missing weight, weird excuses for losses, etc. I'm not nearly as confident. Still at +165 I think there's some really good value. Am I crazy or is this line off? Terminator level RDA couldn't stop Pettis, do we really think Max has anything more than an outside shot of doing it?
he needs to lose his shtick of being a badass army man, he just looks like a doofus
"come get my isis, i'm not scared of you here's my address" what so you can shit yourself and complain to the police and get shot like you shit yourself and complained to the ref against romero then got KTFO?
Basically it comes down to how risk averse you are and what value you think there is on the bets. Earlier hedges doesn't matter since it's a sunk cost.
Right now you win ~6k or whatever if Khabilov and Cerrone hits and you lose 250 if either of them fucks up. You could just freeroll it and put bets on Brown and Skaggo for like 250 each or something which would give you a ~5.5k freeroll, which is probably what I would do.
Only thing I can come up with that might be helpful unless I know more about you and how much important 6k is to you is that you should hedge the first fight first and wait for the outcome on that one before you bet the next fight.
If you have a 40k+ bankroll I think I just skip hedgeing for sure, if it's less then 10k I think I throw like 1k each on the dogs (but obviously Saggo first, and if he loses a 1k on brown) assuming your bankroll is a somewhat reasonably big part of your net worth (as in, it'd hurt a fair bit to go broke).
Assuming decent BR-management and a belief that the hedge lines has no value I would guess that the correct hedge from a math perspective is really small or non-existent. Since you seem to know what you're doing 250 USD is probably not more then a small bet for you so I'd just let it fly.
Another way to do it would be to wait and see what happens in the Khabilov fight and then make a bigger freeroll on the Brown fight, I think he's at like +200 or so which would give you a fairly big guaranteed profit if you put a big bet on him.
All of this are guesstimations taken out of my ass, but I think the general idea is to keep it small unless it's a significant part of your networth and/or puts you in a position of being able to make bigger unit sizes in the future.
Yes. Almost have the exact same thoughts as you. Nothing I'd go too big on though. Keep it around $3.88.
To me this fight breaks down like this:
Khabilov DEC 45%
Saggo DEC 32%
Saggo SUB 8%
Khabilov KO 8%
Khabilov SUB 5%
Saggo KO 2%
We. Shall. See.
Regardless I like saggo SUB +1092
nah he probably made all that upLOL well he's actually a legit badass when it comes to that world (military missions). That guy probably isn't complaining to the cops, he's shooting poeple. Fairly certain he already has confirmed kills in combat.
*Kelvin still wins tonight, hopefully by dec LOL