Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - December, 2016

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statistically justified based on likelihood for OT, yep. so i don't agree one is better or worse, but if you prefer it, i understand that.

This link (https://www.sportingcharts.com/articles/nhl/how-often-is-overtime-needed-in-the-nhl.aspx) has overtime occurring in ~23% of NHL games over a pretty decent sample size. If the game goes into overtime we could make the hypothesis that the match is even up to this point and your team now has a 50% probability to win (this is obviously skewed, but just a generalization for modeling purposes). With this, you would win 11.5% more bets if you bet the moneyline over the puck line. ~12% doesn't seem worth 65 more points in a favored direction, there must be some math to support it though I guess.
 
This link (https://www.sportingcharts.com/articles/nhl/how-often-is-overtime-needed-in-the-nhl.aspx) has overtime occurring in ~23% of NHL games over a pretty decent sample size. If the game goes into overtime we could make the hypothesis that the match is even up to this point and your team now has a 50% probability to win (this is obviously skewed, but just a generalization for modeling purposes). With this, you would win 11.5% more bets if you bet the moneyline over the puck line. ~12% doesn't seem worth 65 more points in a favored direction, there must be some math to support it though I guess.

yea i'm pretty sure the math is right, they would've been exploited / exposed by now if not, cause it's been static for a while
 
wow. columbus is in minnesota today. 14 winstreak vs 12 winstreak... man, i might actually pass on both... lol.
 
Fuck woke up late and didn't get a bet in on LSU. Love them in this gme and I'm gonna live bet them now that they're down 3-0

Edit I got LSU ML -115 for 2u
 
NBA Saturday
Hornets +125 for 1.2u to win 1.5u

More to come
 
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Been a fun year, actually made money on football. Zero confidence in the final week plays, but hoping the football Gods remain good to me and send me out with a bang on this wild round robin
 
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Been a fun year, actually made money on football. Zero confidence in the final week plays, but hoping the football Gods remain good to me and send me out with a bang on this wild round robin
I seriously want no part in week 17 lol
 
I seriously want no part in week 17 lol
I hear you man, so unbettable. Only doing this cause i'll miss football and these crack cocaine round robins i make for watching Redzone, so gotta get my last fix in.

There are a few lines I kind of like though. Romo or not, Cowboys +200 seems off. Broncos as a pick seems off. Kind of like Ravens ml and Steelers spread. But who knows with the last week.
 
I hear you man, so unbettable. Only doing this cause i'll miss football and these crack cocaine round robins i make for watching Redzone, so gotta get my last fix in.

There are a few lines I kind of like though. Romo or not, Cowboys +200 seems off. Broncos as a pick seems off. Kind of like Ravens ml and Steelers spread. But who knows with the last week.
Sanchez is gonna play, not Romo fyi. Raiders are playing for home field while Denver isn't playing for anything and might be playing their rookie qb in the game. I kinda think that game is Raiders or pass but Idk. Don't see why the Ravens are dogs. Not sure how anyone can cap Steelers without Ben Bell or Brown. Sorry to tell u but I think my strongest lean is on the Bears lol
 
Sanchez is gonna play, not Romo fyi. Raiders are playing for home field while Denver isn't playing for anything and might be playing their rookie qb in the game. I kinda think that game is Raiders or pass but Idk. Don't see why the Ravens are dogs. Not sure how anyone can cap Steelers without Ben Bell or Brown. Sorry to tell u but I think my strongest lean is on the Bears lol
Fuckkk didn't know the Romo or Raiders info. This is why week 17 is even worse for me, conscious betting means jack shit when you have things like that involved that i don't look into lol. Don't feel sorry to tell me that when Bears are in my round robin lol not like Vikings winning means anything. Prepared to take a hit tomorrow, but we'll see what happens.
 
Fuckkk didn't know the Romo or Raiders info. This is why week 17 is even worse for me, conscious betting means jack shit when you have things like that involved that i don't look into lol. Don't feel sorry to tell me that when Bears are in my round robin lol not like Vikings winning means anything. Prepared to take a hit tomorrow, but we'll see what happens.
Sorry sorry i just saw that romo will play
 
This bet is a recoup bet for last nights unfortunate UFC bet. Normally I wouldn't do this, but I feel like I've got to do right after my 5 star pick lost.

This is a bet I do recommend you double your bet because I see immense value

The pick: Minnesota Wild ML -130

- Barry


 
This bet is a recoup bet for last nights unfortunate UFC bet. Normally I wouldn't do this, but I feel like I've got to do right after my 5 star pick lost.

This is a bet I do recommend you double your bet because I see immense value

The pick: Minnesota Wild ML -130

- Barry

Your inside info that told you Ronda would take the fight to the floor ASAP... did you break his knees for the bad tip?
 
This bet is a recoup bet for last nights unfortunate UFC bet. Normally I wouldn't do this, but I feel like I've got to do right after my 5 star pick lost.

This is a bet I do recommend you double your bet because I see immense value

The pick: Minnesota Wild ML -130

- Barry

It's over, Barry

...It's over.































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Fuck woke up late and didn't get a bet in on LSU. Love them in this gme and I'm gonna live bet them now that they're down 3-0

Edit I got LSU ML -115 for 2u
Boom, LSU was easily the more talented team. Throwing a unit on Alabama -13.5. This game should get ugly
 
Boom, LSU was easily the more talented team. Throwing a unit on Alabama -13.5. This game should get ugly
Bama covers in a brutal game to watch. +3u on Bowls today. Gonna keep going, throwing 2u on Clemson +110. Let's goooo
 
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