UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

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BJ's last good win was in 2009...
Every single one of his opponents since then has been monsters, most of them at 170. Yair's never beaten or even fought anyone anywhere near the top 10 at 145.
 
Yair has beat multiple top 25 fighters, and a top 15.

Who has BJ most recently beat? Oh yeah, a past his prime Matt Hughes. SEVEN YEARS AGO. Sure he's been in there with great fighters since, but it's not like he looked capable of competing at the top 15 level. He's done nothing but get dominated and embarrassed since 2010.

Betting on MMA isn't about blindly making assumptions based on info from nearly a decade ago. It's about watching recent tape, getting a good read on a fighter and their match-up and finding value in their line. Betting on BJ isn't doing that. There is absolutely ZERO evidence he can still compete at the highest level, and therefore it's IMPOSSIBLE to get a good read on him and how he will perform. You are throwing a dart with a blindfold on.

Sorry that you can't see that.
This. If you think Bj has a path of victory if Yair gets careless on the ground, his sub prop is still over +550. But that's a Hail Mary stab if anything
 
@mkess101

Yeah no reason to rehash, thought we had a cordial and respectful discussion about it at the time. We all lose indeed and it didn't make me think less of you or anything.

It's funny there are guys I think are the best handicappers in the world, and we still try to talk each other out of plays all the time. Maybe it takes a level of mutual respect for it not to come off as dickish (or maybe I am also kinda a dick...)

Even the phrase "talking someone out of a bet" isn't accurate, it's more like making sure your friends are considering all angles and aren't getting an irrational hard on over a line.

I honestly think if done right, it is a good and profitable exercise. But in general you want to be doing it if someone is blindly betting large faves, or going way too big on a questionable underdog.
 
Every single one of his opponents since then have been monsters, most of them at 170. Yair's never beaten or even fought anyone anywhere near the top 10 at 145.
Irrelevant because BJ hasn't been at the top of any division in a very, very long time. I'd make BLR a favorite over BJ too if that fight was made
 
Regarding Alex White and Tony Martin

What am I missing here help me?!? I've watched countless video footage of Tony Martin and Alex White and every time I come away with the same conclusion and that is with Martin having his hand raised. I get to this conclusion because of the myriad superior assets Martin should have.

Martin should have a prodigious size and strength edge, augmented by a protracted BJJ advantage. I just envision Martin using these tools to take Alex down and strangle him.

Not only is Martin the bigger man here, but Alex is is taking this fight on short notice and moving up from his natural 145 pound weight class. This to tangle with the already monstrously large lightweight in Martin. Indeed, Martin is a giant 155 pound fighter with the wingspan of a condor and owner of the resourceful gangly arms and legs that enable him to wrap his opponent up like a fucking octopus when he gets them down. Specifically, Tony Martin is a Brown Belt in BJJ and should have a significant advantage over Alex should he be able to implement his wrestling and/or force him into a grappling exchange. Conversely, Alex is merely a Blue Belt in BJJ and will beat a significant size disadvantage to make matters worse.

Martin is an expert back taker and is great with all chokes but he is particularly proficient at or using his gorilla strength to contort arm joints in positions joints into ways that they aren't supposed to bend. For reference see how he submitted BJJ Black Belt ace Fabrício Camões with a gnarly kimura lock.

Stylistically this fight favors Martin too. Alex is predominantly a boxer/Thai striker with a mediocre grappling game at best. Worse still, his takedown defense is quite woeful. Given all of these aforementioned facts, I don't understand why there is so much late money coming in on White.

Inarguably Martin has a suspect gas tank and has wilted late in bouts like unattended household shrubbery at times, but it should be noted that he did so against top shelf competition. Specifically, Martin has only dropped fights to top 10 competition in Beneil Dariush by to Rashid Magomedov and then Brazilian jujitsu master Leonardo's Santos. That is a Santos who just so happens to be undefeated inside the octagon through 6 fights thus far. Meanwhile, in stark opposition contrast, Alex was dusted in the third round by Lucas Martins and decisioned by the inimitable "Cassius" Clay Collard of all people.

I know that both fighters have have substandard success in the octagon, but the schedule of competition is not even in the same stratosphere. I mean, I find very limited paths to victory for White to win without Martin being a willing participant. Essentially Martin would need to significantly run out of steam in rounds two and three to drop this fight as I see it. Nevertheless, he is currently up all the way to -165 when just a couple of days ago he was -220 or worse.

Am I missing something here?
Martin is my biggest play. He should smoke White. As said Marin has actually been fighting legit high level competition, and being competitive.
 
@mkess101

Yeah no reason to rehash, thought we had a cordial and respectful discussion about it at the time. We all lose indeed and it didn't make me think less of you or anything.

It's funny there are guys I think are the best handicappers in the world, and we still try to talk each other out of plays all the time. Maybe it takes a level of mutual respect for it not to come off as dickish (or maybe I am also kinda a dick...)

Even the phrase "talking someone out of a bet" isn't accurate, it's more like making sure your friends are considering all angles and aren't getting an irrational hard on over a line.

I honestly think if done right, it is a good and profitable exercise. But in general you want to be doing it if someone is blindly betting large faves, or going way too big on a questionable underdog.

No that's fair. I guess yeah I don't like the "talking someone out of..." verbiage. But I get what you're saying. The whole point of this forum is to kick ideas around and share insight. I totally agree that if you don't bother listening, what's the point of having the discussion. That's more what you were getting at it sounds like, and that makes sense for sure.
 
Every single one of his opponents since then has been monsters, most of them at 170. Yair's never beaten or even fought anyone anywhere near the top 10 at 145.
You're giving BJ credit for fighting way past his prime and getting his head caved in for the last 7 years, and not giving Yair credit for beating a top 15 fighter at 24 years old. That says it all.

Yair is young, he hasn't had a chance to fight the best of the best yet, but hes proved he can hang with the top 15. You have no reason whatsoever to believe BJ can do the same. BJ's last win was in a different era of MMA and his performances since have proved that we have no reason to think he has what it takes anymore and hasn't for a while. He even said so himself.
 
Yair has beat multiple top 25 fighters, and a top 15.

Who has BJ most recently beat? Oh yeah, a past his prime Matt Hughes. SEVEN YEARS AGO. Sure he's been in there with great fighters since, but it's not like he looked capable of competing at the top 15 level. He's done nothing but get dominated and embarrassed since 2010.

Betting on MMA isn't about blindly making assumptions based on info from nearly a decade ago. It's about watching recent tape, getting a good read on a fighter and their match-up and finding value in their line. There is absolutely ZERO evidence he can still compete at the highest level, and therefore it's IMPOSSIBLE to get a good read on him and how he will perform.

Sorry that you can't see that.
What do you think Frankie Edgar, Nick Diaz, Rory MacDonald, and Jon Fitch would do to Yair? They'd dominate him pretty good to imo.

I'm not saying BJ's going to win. I'm saying there's value in his ML at over 3/1.
 
See you guys in 2.5 hrs. Ive got work soon as this card finishes so 2.5 hrs MIGHT get me thru tomo.

Fuck you UFC with a Sunday card.
 
What do you think Frankie Edgar, Nick Diaz, Rory MacDonald, and Jon Fitch would do to Yair? They'd dominate him pretty good to imo.

I'm not saying BJ's going to win. I'm saying there's value in his ML at over 3/1.
You're just not getting it. It's not about who he was in with.

Who do you think BJ would have beat with the way he fought Edgar in his last fight? No one in the top 15, I'll tell you that right now. He was lost. He looked like he forgot how to fight.

Again, for the 1000th time, you can't say BJ has value when there's no recent tape to go off. It's impossible to have a good read on him. His last good performance was nearly a decade ago over a washed up fighter.

Forget it, this is a lost cause. Not repeating myself 500 times. I've tried my best.
 
This. If you think Bj has a path of victory if Yair gets careless on the ground, his sub prop is still over +550. But that's a Hail Mary stab if anything

I don't know man. That's pretty close to the moneyline for me. And with the moneyline, you can live bet hedge it off, with the sub you are stuck there for not much extra.

If yair gets sloppy and bj has a good early round by just holding back position, or mount, and you can be freerolling. The ML has much more flexibility imho.
 
You're giving BJ credit for fighting way past his prime and getting his head caved in for the last 7 years, and not giving Yair credit for beating a top 15 fighter at 24 years old. That says it all.

Yair is young, he hasn't had a chance to fight the best of the best yet, but hes proved he can hang with the top 15. You have no reason whatsoever to believe BJ can do the same. BJ's last win was in a different era of MMA and his performances since have proved that we have no reason to think he has what it takes anymore and hasn't for a while. He even said so himself.
Fili was unranked when he fought Yair, it was his last performance against Dias that squeezed him into the top 15. You're clutching at straws, Yair's fought nobody yet. Obviously doesn't mean he can't annihilate BJ.

Don't wanna clog up the thread anymore so that's my last post.
 
Fili was unranked when he fought Yair, it was his last performance against Dias that squeezed him into the top 15. You're clutching at straws, Yair's fought nobody yet. Obviously doesn't mean he can't annihilate BJ.

Don't wanna clog up the thread anymore so that's my last post.
Lol what does that matter? He's still top 15 a few months later.

Top 25 then. The same point applies. You're just not getting it.

Yair's last wins are over top 15/25 guys. BJ's last win is over a washed up guy who's been retired for 6 years.
 
I don't know man. That's pretty close to the moneyline for me. And with the moneyline, you can live bet hedge it off, with the sub you are stuck there for not much extra.

If yair gets sloppy and bj has a good early round by just holding back position, or mount, and you can be freerolling. The ML has much more flexibility imho.
How much are you planning on betting that you're considering hedging off live? Penn rd 1 and rd 2 are both over +1000, consider paying less for those and just sticking w it. Penn has always had shit cardio and his age isn't gonna help that cause, especially w Yair pushing the pace. If BJ is gonna pull one out of his ass, it's gonna be early
 
Lol what does that matter? He's still top 15 a few months later.

Top 25 then. The same point applies. You're just not getting it.
No I totally get what you're saying bro. Just think Yair's being over-hyped a little.

It's a gamble but at +333 I'm willing to have a pop. We're all going to find out in a few hours.
 
How much are you planning on betting that you're considering hedging off live? Penn rd 1 and rd 2 are both over +1000, consider paying less for those and just sticking w it. Penn has always had shit cardio and his age isn't gonna help that cause, especially w Yair pushing the pace. If BJ is gonna pull one out of his ass, it's gonna be early

Depends on how well the rest of the night is going. I feel comfortable with half a unit ML at the moment, and him being the final leg in some lottery tickets.

BJ wants a sub yes, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him implement a Greg Jackson lay and pray strategy, and if a sub comes it comes. That would be best case for me: bj wrestling for rounds 1 and 2.
 
at the same he has faced edgar x3 and rory+diaz all fighters that would likely school yair easily too..
I seriously don't understand why everyone is using this point. It's irrelevant

If BJ fought the way he did against Edgar in his last fight against ANY of the top 15, he would have still been pummeled. It looked like he didn't know how to fight. Just because he was in there with great fighters doesn't mean he would have smashed any of the top 15 at the time

A better point to consider is the fact that his last win is 7 years ago over a washed up fighter who retired a few months afterwards

If you're betting on him for fun, fine, but the bottom line is a bet on BJ is nothing more than throwing a dart with a blindfold on. Maybe the dirt still hits, but there's no recent tape to prove he can still compete at this level and therefore no reason to believe his line has value. It's as simple as that, and I don't get why it's so hard for people to understand.
 
Depends on how well the rest of the night is going. I feel comfortable with half a unit ML at the moment, and him being the final leg in some lottery tickets.

BJ wants a sub yes, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him implement a Greg Jackson lay and pray strategy, and if a sub comes it comes. That would be best case for me: bj wrestling for rounds 1 and 2.
Say what now? If BJ wrestles for the first 2 you're fucked. BJ's cardio has always been bad.
 
Say what now? If BJ wrestles for the first 2 you're fucked. BJ's cardio has always been bad.
No it hasn't. It was amazing under Marv Marinovich, and with altitude training there is reason to believe it won't be bad here
 
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