UFN 105 - Lewis vs Browne - Halifax

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Where that girl Suarez at, she seems like a dependable money maker.

she pulled out of a fight recently, i think the juliana lima one.. and yes, she's championship material
 
Lombard NSC -195? Then hedge with a tiny Hendricks rd 3 bet? IDK...

Mutante sub +750...little stab on that.

Throwing together some last minute hail mary's and props for fun here. Gonna miss an hour of the event from 8-9 central for TWD, hope I don't miss any choice LB opportunities. But...keeping the wife happy is more important and we always watch together so I can miss an hour of the fights live. Will record and catch up quick with all the breaks to ff through.

Good luck guys, hope everyone makes out well tonight!

i like all of that
 
Going large on Carla -3.5 is crazy imo. She wilts under pressure, she slows down big-time in the 3rd, she is fighting a Canadian in canada, and carla does little damage vs Carla shows a lot of damage in her fights. Maybe you think she can get a sub, but she isn't on Casey's level imo.

Markos ML and pray she fights smart here.
 
Few thoughts on this card:

Felder-his power and control should look better, ricci was practically retiring before he got the ufc call.

Carla-yes she probably hugs here, but she did show she can land some pillow hammer fist enough to keep the judges happy to not get stood up.

Mcmann - sub prop, against a girl with 2 jobs, 3 weeks notice and beaten no one of worth and she was in africa last week promoting and helping her bro in his mma fight.

Cezar- better everywhere I reckon apart from his chin but he is defending it better and putting together good game plans to win. Theo could spam out his kicks here and make it close.

Gone off Ryan- no confidence from his interviews, expects meers to better on the ground yet he is a bjj black belt (apparently), originally felt his forward pressure may appear good in judges eyes.

Gone off marshman- but think marshman could get in range and brawl with a ko shot, still possible.

Hendricks/lombard, cezar/theo should be good live betting fights with some luck.
 
There seems to be a critical mass of support for Cezar over Theodorou, but my gut is still siding with the Spartan.

Outside of the one event in Vancouver last year, I have found Canadian judging to be very friendly to Canadian fighters. I think Elias will be slightly more active on the feet, including tons of kicks from range. Coupled with his formidable chin I can see Elias walking down Cezar more often than not and getting the benefit of the doubt in the exchanges. I also give Elias the edge in Cardio.

The only way I can see Cezar incontrovertibly racking up points is if he can consistently take Elias down and control him. Elias' TDD (as per fightmetric: 41% yikes) leaves a lot to be desired. This is likely what hell be trying to do, but if Elias does stuff these attempts I think the judges will view this similar to DeRandamie / Holm and regard failed TD attempts as being unwilling to strike.
 
i would be lol

I only watched 3 of Markos fights prepping for this one and her wrestling sucked in those. If she's shown better wrestling in other fights, oops. Might have screwed myself.
 
it's not quite the same AFAIK because the NSC bets mean if it goes to dec then the bet is void (at least if I've been following this right), while 'to win by finish' means you lose if it goes to dec, while 'to win by finish - no' would pay if it went to dec (or if their opponent finished them) but the odds are much suckier, eg Carla NSC is 1.61 at the moment, while Not Carla ITD is about 1.15. So Carla NSC is a low risk way to play on Carla winning ITD 'or your money back', pretty much

yeah its closest match, its a lovely prop missed in uk sadly
 
Going large on Carla -3.5 is crazy imo. She wilts under pressure, she slows down big-time in the 3rd, she is fighting a Canadian in canada, and carla does little damage vs Carla shows a lot of damage in her fights. Maybe you think she can get a sub, but she isn't on Casey's level imo.

Markos ML and pray she fights smart here.

LOL y'all are making me nervous. Did I miss the fights where Randa showed any sort of ability to stop a TD or to get back up once taken down? Has she even faced anyone in the same league in terms of TD's and top control as Carla?

(I'm not asking that rhetorically, I honestly might have missed it. I only watched 3 of Randa's fights in prep for this and her wrestling sucks. I may have jumped the gun on that if there's examples that show otherwise that I missed).
 
Where can I watch the undercard fights for this event that are not televised? I am located in the midwest USA.

I am watching the main card on FS1.
 
Where can I watch the undercard fights for this event that are not televised? I am located in the midwest USA.

I am watching the main card on FS1.
Everything is on FS1 except Mystic Meer vs bum Janes which is on fight pass
 
LOL y'all are making me nervous. Did I miss the fights where Randa showed any sort of ability to stop a TD or to get back up once taken down? Has she even faced anyone in the same league in terms of TD's and top control as Carla?

(I'm not asking that rhetorically, I honestly might have missed it. I only watched 3 of Randa's fights in prep for this and her wrestling sucks. I may have jumped the gun on that if there's examples that show otherwise that I missed).

Randas grappling isn't terrible, the biggest issue is her fight IQ. Who can predict what these bicthes will do, maybe she holds on to a bad sub too long. But she has the skills to be able to scramble enough to nullify Carlas ground game enough to where her standing advantage could win her the fight, also the tendency for Carla to coast in the 3rd + hometown judging= taking the dog odds for me
 
You thinking Theo and Ricci can out volume to decisions?

Yes, I think Ricci is possibly able to score more points and what good with activity then they often nonchalant Felder and as for Mutant and Theo, I just believe Cesar is going to have a tough time in the latter stages of the fight and his conditioning may not hold up.... if it becomes a war of attrition I favor Theo. I'd actually bet Cezar earlier in the week and my confidence has plummeted.
 
Randas grappling isn't terrible, the biggest issue is her fight IQ. Who can predict what these bicthes will do, maybe she holds on to a bad sub too long. But she has the skills to be able to scramble enough to nullify Carlas ground game enough to where her standing advantage could win her the fight, also the tendency for Carla to coast in the 3rd + hometown judging= taking the dog odds for me

I guess my view was that as far as WMMA goes, Carla actually IS predictable. She knows what she does well, and doesn't try to do something else. And other than seeing Randa throw up a few sloppy sub attempts and give up positioning too easily, I didn't see anything that showed me she could stop Carla from controlling her.

But again, that's with maybe too limited an amount of tape watched on Randa. If I missed fights where she showed better grappling, it's my own fault then.
 
There seems to be a critical mass of support for Cezar over Theodorou, but my gut is still siding with the Spartan.

Outside of the one event in Vancouver last year, I have found Canadian judging to be very friendly to Canadian fighters. I think Elias will be slightly more active on the feet, including tons of kicks from range. Coupled with his formidable chin I can see Elias walking down Cezar more often than not and getting the benefit of the doubt in the exchanges. I also give Elias the edge in Cardio.

The only way I can see Cezar incontrovertibly racking up points is if he can consistently take Elias down and control him. Elias' TDD (as per fightmetric: 41% yikes) leaves a lot to be desired. This is likely what hell be trying to do, but if Elias does stuff these attempts I think the judges will view this similar to DeRandamie / Holm and regard failed TD attempts as being unwilling to strike.

What do u think is gonna happen when Cezar is winning the stand up and then he gets the first takedown off a kick. Let's assume theo gets up(big assumption). Do you think theo will keep kicking after getting taken down? If he stops kicking what does that leave him?
 
Yes, I think Ricci is possibly able to score more points and what good with activity then they often nonchalant Felder and as for Mutant and Theo, I just believe Cesar is going to have a tough time in the latter stages of the fight and his conditioning may not hold up.... if it becomes a war of attrition I favor Theo. I'd actually bet Cezar earlier in the week and my confidence has plummeted.
Ricci's one dimensional, he's a stiff pot shotting muay thai striker. I think Felder can win this on the feet easy and he could probably test out his grappling too.

Elias is overrated, Cezar is better everywhere, his chin is the only issue as it is in everyone of his fights, doubt Elias can capitalise though, all he does is kick and that's just gonna help him get taken down.
 
i would not count on canada fighters getting the nod becourse of close rounds anymore.. sure it cant be a bad thing but i cant remember the last time we saw one/alot of bigtime hometown/country robberies? even in brazil where they used to be really biased we dont see that anymore at all
 
Yes, I think Ricci is possibly able to score more points and what good with activity then they often nonchalant Felder and as for Mutant and Theo, I just believe Cesar is going to have a tough time in the latter stages of the fight and his conditioning may not hold up.... if it becomes a war of attrition I favor Theo. I'd actually bet Cezar earlier in the week and my confidence has plummeted.

Definitely possible, but I think Felder lands the harder shots and will mix in some TDs to win rounds. Also think the only advantages Theo has is volume and cardio, with Cezar holding an overall striking advantage, power advantage and pretty large wrestling/grappling advantage. I like Cezar to win a clear decision..
 
@iGnP I'm sticking with Black Dynamite

All picks

Travis Browne > Derrick Lewis
Hector Lombard > Johny Hendricks
Gavin Tucker > Sam Sicilia
Elias Theodorou > Cezar Ferreira
Sara McMann > Gina Mazany
Alessandro Ricci > Paul Felder
Santiago Ponzinibbio > Nordine Taleb
Carla Esparza > Randa Markos
Aiemann Zahabi > Reginaldo Vieira
Jack Marshman > Thiago Santos
I'm okay w/ Hendricks v. Lombard but I am also okay w forgetting it if you don't feel strongly anymore
 
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