UFC 209 - Twood vs Wonderboy II - Vegas

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For a lesson in reading comprehension go back and read my posts. I never once said there was no value on betting Elkins you are making shit up. I don't blame anyone for betting Elkins at those odds. What i was pointing out is loads of people were justifying betting Elkins cos he gave Skelly a lopsided whooping and Bektic didn't. That means absolutely jack shit. That's like me saying i am betting Bektic cos he destroyed Martins and Elkins had to cage hug.

With regards to Ferg Tibau which you keep bringing up. Normally I completely disregard MMA math. But when you have a scenario where Ferg has smashed up three people who Kebab beat but IMO in completely less empathetic fashion than Ferg, I think there is some merit to considering that when capping this fight.

This post is just ridiculous on all levels. Again, you throw out a strawman due to your lack of reading comprehension. Where did I say that you said "there was no value on betting Elkins". Honestly, how do you even get that from the post you quoted? And you say I'm making shit up? Lol. The point of the post is that there is validity to talking about Bektic vs. Skelly as Skelly is the most similar opponent to Elkins and Bektic's toughest test. Elkins vs. Skelly is relevant because it shows one of the countless examples of Elkins playing spoiler as the underdog and excelling against the same level of competition that Bektic has faced. Not that hard to comprehend.

As for your second paragraph, here is the translation: MMA math only works when I use it. I also like how you conveniently disregard their 4th common opponent.
 
Sham and Oblivian right now:

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This post is just ridiculous on all levels. Again, you throw out a strawman due to your lack of reading comprehension. Where did I say that you said "there was no value on betting Elkins". Honestly, how do you even get that from the post you quoted? And you say I'm making shit up? Lol. The point of the post is that there is validity to talking about Bektic vs. Skelly as Skelly is the most similar opponent to Elkins and Bektic's toughest test. Elkins vs. Skelly is relevant because it shows one of the countless examples of Elkins playing spoiler as the underdog and excelling against the same level of competition that Bektic has faced. Not that hard to comprehend.

As for your second paragraph, here is the translation: MMA math only works when I use it. I also like how you conveniently disregard their 4th common opponent.

Agree to disagree.

I disregard the MJ fight cos Ferg broke his arm in r1. Most people would have quit he took the L like a man.
 
In the past 3.5 years Rashad has fought twice. He looked pretty bad against Bader. He was slow, tentative, and seemingly content with losing - did not display any urgency despite clearly being down on the cards. That fight was after a 2 year layoff. He then returned ~ 6 months later to get brutally KOed by Glover in less than 2 minutes.

What information do we have to suggest that this guy has anything left? Saying he has fought good fighters just isn't enough for me. It's about how he looked against those good fighters. He looked bad in his last two fights. Prior to that he beat a career middleweight who was moving up to LHW in Chael Sonnen. He took a split decision off of 43 year old Dan Henderson. Prior to that he lost to Little Nog. Based on all of this I just don't have anything to suggest Rashad is capable of beating even middle of the road UFC talent at this point.

This is not a statement about Dan Kelly's abilities at all. I am just saying there is no reason at all to be confident in Rashad vs anyone.

**edited for grammar
To be be fair that now 46-year old Dan Henderson just gave the current MW champ, the division that this fight is taking place in, all he could handle....and Chael beat him as well. Dan Kelly gets smoked by everyone you just mentioned.
 
I think i agree to a certain extent with firas in regards to the rda-ferguson fight. The eye poke could have potentially played a significant factor in rda's performance. I remember watching the rda fight and thinking that he looked worse after the eye poke.

Now of course you can also attribute that to ferguson making adjustments, which is what i'm leaning towards but I just think caution is warranted when it comes to judging that fight and what you can take away from it.
 
I think i agree to a certain extent with firas in regards to the rda-ferguson fight. The eye poke could have potentially played a significant factor in rda's performance. I remember watching the rda fight and thinking that he looked worse after the eye poke.

Now of course you can also attribute that to ferguson making adjustments, which is what i'm leaning towards but I just think caution is warranted when it comes to judging that fight and what you can take away from it.

I disagree. Ferg was all over RDA in round 2 before the eye poke. And although i think he clearly lost r3 a lot of people including the judges thought RDA won r3, so it's not like he completely flaked out after the eye poke. RDA has also gone to WW - if he won i bet he wouldn't have. I don't think you move up a weight class if you think you lost a fight due to an eye poke.
 
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I've just added the six month factor as well for Calv too
IIRC, Calvillo has a full time job. I just can't find the article.

Any source on her full time job?

Her ufc profile claims she had an office job before doing mma properly, would not surprise me if many fighters work full or part time bit like stipe as a fireman.
 
I disagree. Ferg was all over RDA in round 2 before the eye poke. And although i think he clearly lost r3 a lot of people including the judges thought RDA won r3, so it's not like he completely flaked out after the eye poke.

No he definitely didn't completely flake out but that is not to say it didn't have an impact. The one thing I do know is that eye pokes can be disruptive in varying degrees and the only one who knows how much impact it had is rda.

I basically agree with you like I said earlier that I lean towards ferguson just making the proper adjustments. I just think some level of caution is in order here.
 
Kelly is durable and crafty, if athletically limited. Has a little pop and honestly after all these years I do think Rashad's decline is real. Not just in speed and athletic ability, but in his ability to absorb any amount of punishment at all.

And even if Rashad's chin isn't completely shot, I don't have a ton of confidence that he has enough fire anymore to fight through any sort of adversity. He got to the top of the mountain, has had a long career, done the commentating, etc. Kelly is old but I believe more in him when it comes to passion. You have to have that drive if you get in a bad spot to make you want to fight through it. Sounds cheezy, but tapping or turtling up comes easier when you're in Rashad's spot imo.

And again, if forced to pick a winner I'd take Rashad in spite of everything I just said. But laying -200 or more? No way.

To play devil's advocate, I do not think Rashad would be working to cut to 185 if he had lost the fire. At his age he has to be dedicated to be willing to do that. I do not think he needs the money, etc.
 
Bro what are your plays for Bektic/Elkins and Vannata/Teymur
Been posting infrequently recently but today is tape watch time so I should be in here posting thoughts on most, if not all, of the fights

I think right now you have to play Elkins, or Do what I preached last week which is bet the prospect by decision in a big step up. Will decide which of those I want to do after tape watch.

Lando vs Teymur I really need to review some Teymur footage. Right now I def lean Lando but he still has some stuff to prove before touching that moneyline price.
 
Cavillo/Cooper - I think Cavillo uses her superior wrestling and grappling to ground Cooper repeatedly throughout the fight to either take a dec or late stoppage. She has been content to stand with opponents at times, but I am hoping that is due to her trying to get more comfortable with her stand-up against over-matched opponents and she goes back to her strengths here. I have 1u on Cavillo at +100.
 
For a lesson in reading comprehension go back and read my posts. I never once said there was no value on betting Elkins you are making shit up. I don't blame anyone for betting Elkins at those odds. What i was pointing out is loads of people were justifying betting Elkins cos he gave Skelly a lopsided whooping and Bektic didn't. That means absolutely jack shit. That's like me saying i am betting Bektic cos he destroyed Martins and Elkins had to cage hug.

With regards to Ferg Tibau which you keep bringing up. Normally I completely disregard MMA math. But when you have a scenario where Ferg has smashed up three people who Kebab beat but IMO in completely less empathetic fashion than Ferg, I think there is some merit to considering that when capping this fight.

Not only is what you are saying verifiably false, you are blind to the hypocrisy within your own post. Seriously, step back take a deep breath and re-read that.

You have to be objective about both fighters, but you seem more interested in touting a pick and being subjective to one side.
 
Kelly is a southpaw, the more active striker, also has solid takedowns and on a 3 fight win streak.... momentum is everything.
 
Not only is what you are saying verifiably false, you are blind to the hypocrisy within your own post. Seriously, step back take a deep breath and re-read that.

You have to be objective about both fighters, but you seem more interested in touting a pick and being subjective to one side.

Elkins is one common opponent. When I'm talking about Ferg we have three common opponents. You can start to build a far clearer picture when you compare three common opponents as opposed to one.
 
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