UFN 108 - Swanson vs Lobov - Nashville

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The Matt Schnell support is very confusing to me

Rob Font had his back with a full body lock triangle in 80 seconds in their fight, then rocked him with a teep to the face, and pummeled him for the KO in the first round.

I realize that fight was at BW and this is at FW, but Sandoval will have NO trouble taking this fight down whenever he wants and controlling Schnell on the mat.

It should also be noted that the beating Schnell took from Font was only 4.5 months ago.

I'm not so sure that Sandoval will easily control him, Schnell is very agressive on the ground + big reach/height edge.

Font is way better than Sandoval and much bigger, Schnell had no bussines against him, UFC debut+short notice, fighting outside his division against somebody like Font is a sure lose.
 
Who are my Sig Bets on the Sandoval/Schnell fight with again?

Let's confirm and hash out the details.
 
Hit Moreno NSC +230. Also small stab at Moreno ITD +1224 (his sub line is +700 right now). Both are way off IMO.
 
Rob font is a big bw Sandoval is a midget. And while he has the wrestling advantage he will not be able to control schnell on the mat. He also slows down so his ability to hit td's and control will be diminished by r2. The only way i see sandoval winning is by landing an overhand and most likely i needs to be r1. Watch his tuf fights he butchers a bjj bb on the mat and he has a decent triangle attempt on elliott followed by a tight as fuck armbar attempt. Schnell is dangerous off his back.

Schnell rd 3 at +1325? I'm kind of thinking he has the better gas tank, and has multiple ways to finish late (either stuffing sloppy TD's from a tired Sandoval, or catching a sub if a tired Sandoval gets lazy in Schnell's guard).

Also looking at Holtzman rd 3 at +925 and Alvey rd 3 at +1950.

I think I'm gonna put tiny amounts on these props and then a tiny RR with them for a potential huge payout.
 
Schnell rd 3 at +1325? I'm kind of thinking he has the better gas tank, and has multiple ways to finish late (either stuffing sloppy TD's from a tired Sandoval, or catching a sub if a tired Sandoval gets lazy in Schnell's guard).

Also looking at Holtzman rd 3 at +925 and Alvey rd 3 at +1950.

I think I'm gonna put tiny amounts on these props and then a tiny RR with them for a potential huge payout.

Schnell r3 odds +3300 (bet365)
 
Schnell r3 odds +3300 (bet365)

Are you f'ing kidding me? That is just pure insanity. How could anyone using that site NOT hit that prop?
 
The Matt Schnell support is very confusing to me.

Rob Font had his back with a full body lock triangle in 80 seconds in their fight, then rocked him with a teep to the face, and pummeled him for the KO in the first round.

I realize that fight was at BW and this is at FW, but Sandoval will have NO trouble taking this fight down whenever he wants and controlling Schnell on the mat.

It should also be noted that the beating Schnell took from Font was only 4.5 months ago.

Probably just bandwagon jumping.
 
Are you f'ing kidding me? That is just pure insanity. How could anyone using that site NOT hit that prop?
Because I #StoppedGuessingStartedWinning, betting round props is guessing, I've honestly never bet a round prop in my life. You'll never see an elite bettor like Gamblou betting round props.

#DontMessWithSuccess
 
When you consider betting both sides, then you probably shouldn't bet a side at all. A lot of that going on with these match ups:

OSP vs De Lima
Ray vs Lauzon
Ortiz vs Moreno
Penne vs Taylor
Alvey vs Leites
 
Admittedly I haven't seen a lot of any of those fighters bar Danielle Sproles and the Barber.

What would you say are the safest three bets on the card outside the main event? Lauzon, Dodson and Iaquinta?
davis
 
Because I #StoppedGuessingStartedWinning, betting round props is guessing, I've honestly never bet a round prop in my life. You'll never see an elite bettor like Gamblou betting round props.

#DontMessWithSuccess

Sigh. Capping is capping. You assign what you believe are the probabilities of outcome x and then compare that to the odds being offered. I can't believe I'd need to explain that to a #elitebettor but I guess I do.

Now, obviously there's probably more variance in choosing round props. Which is why it makes sense to be more selective and bet them very small.

Attempting to lecture me on this stuff is #farfromelite. Please know you are barking up the wrong tree here, I've been doing this too long to suffer silliness like that.
 
Gamblou.com = Game Changer

St. Preux -155 vs. De Lima +145

De Lima is used to being the larger more powerful man in the Octagon in his fights and against OSP he’ll surely be the larger man as he missed weight by 5 pounds! Missing by that much and weighing in as early as he did is a ‘Cowboy’* move that we feel is unfair and cheating for the fighter is saying, ‘to hell with being a professional and making weight….I’ll give up purse money in order to hold advantage as I don’t want to tax myself to make weight’. This unethical move is unprofessional and should cost the fighter more than simply money. Meanwhile De Lima who is an aggressive dynamite fisted flogger for four minutes and a slow, stagnant statue after that will need to tag Ovince early of he’ll be completely exposed to the more athletic, better conditioned fighter. Provided St. Preux has learned from past performance and provided he realizes that he must weather De Lima’s early onslaught this fight should turn his way late in the first round as the Brazilian slows and OSP throws. If the ‘Sunday shots’ from De Lima don’t find their mark early and this fight gets to the second round it will be OSP that will hold advantage for he’s the more conditioned fighter who should be able to drag De Lima to the deck and mash his mug into the mat. OSP opened -270 and has been faded to the current value opportunity that is -155, we released this yesterday the moment De lima wallowed to weigh-in..

St. Preux -155
 
Completely agree with Lord Gamblou. At -155 OSP is a #sleeperbet and his opening sub prop line at +900 in unquestionably this card's #mayorofvaluecity
 
Lobov
rd4 KO 51.00
rd 5 KO 67.00

Lobov is younger and fresher than Cub, he finished that last fight much fresher, with zero gas issues IIRC.

It's worth noting, Cub has not been 5 rounds since Nov / 22 / 2014 (pre-USADA.)

Cub might fade in those later rounds there could be an upset. xD
 
dodson dec +437!


I actually think this is the second most likely scenario for the outcome with them being

JD x TKO 42%
JD x DEC 28%
Eddie x TKO 10%
Eddie x DEC 7%
JD X SUB 10%
Eddie x SUB 3%

All give or take ~

Quick cap
 
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Gamblou.com = Game Changer

St. Preux -155 vs. De Lima +145

De Lima is used to being the larger more powerful man in the Octagon in his fights and against OSP he’ll surely be the larger man as he missed weight by 5 pounds! Missing by that much and weighing in as early as he did is a ‘Cowboy’* move that we feel is unfair and cheating for the fighter is saying, ‘to hell with being a professional and making weight….I’ll give up purse money in order to hold advantage as I don’t want to tax myself to make weight’. This unethical move is unprofessional and should cost the fighter more than simply money. Meanwhile De Lima who is an aggressive dynamite fisted flogger for four minutes and a slow, stagnant statue after that will need to tag Ovince early of he’ll be completely exposed to the more athletic, better conditioned fighter. Provided St. Preux has learned from past performance and provided he realizes that he must weather De Lima’s early onslaught this fight should turn his way late in the first round as the Brazilian slows and OSP throws. If the ‘Sunday shots’ from De Lima don’t find their mark early and this fight gets to the second round it will be OSP that will hold advantage for he’s the more conditioned fighter who should be able to drag De Lima to the deck and mash his mug into the mat. OSP opened -270 and has been faded to the current value opportunity that is -155, we released this yesterday the moment De lima wallowed to weigh-in..

St. Preux -155

Want to guess how many times De Lima has gone to rd 2 in his last 10 fights? Exactly once. He's kill or be killed, Gamblou is right about that. De Lima will do what he does and come full bore at OSP. He'll either land and finish, get starched himself, or get taken down and pounded out or subbed most likely.

Fight does not start rd 2 is about the same price as OSP here. (-165). Not sure why we wouldn't expect this thing to be over quickly one way or another.
 
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