UFN 108 - Swanson vs Lobov - Nashville

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Man, I just realized I have a lot more Ellenberger then I thought. That makes me nervous. My night could ride on Ellebberger and that is making me sick lol. I might do a little hedging, thinking about it.
 
why is the o/u on Dodson so out of whack. isn't Dodson by dec the most likely outcome?
 
So I just watched both of Schnell's fights on TUF 24 --- still not sure what everyone is talking about.

He lost position multiple times against Rizzo who was very wreckless and tense in there, and tapped to a side control/neck crank? from Tim Elliot....

He LOCKED IN a triangle on Rizzo and was unable to get the tap in the first round...

Doubling down on Sandoval, who I think has as good a chance at getting the sub in this fight as Schnell.

Edit: a front naked choke win by Elliot

Dude im not saying much more we will see in a few hrs but you are clearly being partial cos you are on Sand. Elliott choked him. Yes he locked in a triangle on Rizzo end of r1 but he wasnt unable to finish the round ended before he could tap him. He secures the triangle again in r2 and taps him as he had plenty of time to work.
 
Woke up this morning in an intoxicated state. Checked out 5dimes, I thought my eyes were hallucinating. Dodson/Wineland o2.5 at +215??? SMASHED THAT.

Thanks Luca.

Anyone here on Proctor? Yeah he's a jobber, but IDK how barbarena can be -3xx against anyone in the UFC. Proctor +285 pretty tempting
 
why is the o/u on Dodson so out of whack. isn't Dodson by dec the most likely outcome?

I guess people are fading wines twice broken jaw. Im very tempted to hit the over but i think its a trap bet
 
OMFG

moreno ITD +1224?
moreno NSC +235? this was like -235 last night!
 
why is the o/u on Dodson so out of whack. isn't Dodson by dec the most likely outcome?

people are batshit crazy, that's why

could dodson ko him? yea. but shit like dodson DEC +437 last night? come ON, insane
 
OSP is going to take him down or he's going to at least try. I know what De Lima is going to do but OSP is a wild card at this point, hasn't been looking like himself lately, far less aggressive, this could look like OSP vs Cavalcante.

Cavalcante was an aggressive fighter but never once did I see him go full spaz like De Lima does in basically every fight. @Jamah is right, he is easily the guy in the UFC most desperate to end fights in rd 1. And his sub defense sucks even before he gets tired, then just gets worse. If OSP does take him down, pretty good chance it doesn't last long on the ground either.
 
OMFG

moreno ITD +1224?
moreno NSC +235? this was like -235 last night!
Wow. SMASHED both of those.

Wtf is happening to these lines? Ortiz's odds drop yet Morenos finish odds got way better. wtf is going on.
 
Wow. SMASHED both of those.

Wtf is happening to these lines? Ortiz's odds drop yet Morenos finish odds got way better. wtf is going on.
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Great call on those Ortiz/Moreno props. Ortiz has finished 2 of 10 UFC opponents. He's a terrific scrambler, but he's not a finisher against good fighters. No idea why that NSC line moved like that. Just hit it at +210. Took that Moreno itd line for a tiny bet at +1100.
 
WINELAND DECISION IS +1253!!!

THIS IS #VALUECITY!!!!


Wow. I though 7.50 was too high.

I haven't felt this nervous for a event in a really long time. I just realized I'm only in dogs so I hope they bark. Feels like these lines been moving so much I don't know what to think...
 
Hit Moreno NSC +230. Also small stab at Moreno ITD +1224 (his sub line is +700 right now). Both are way off IMO.


I think that Dustin Ortiz is the best play on this card at -120. That will definitely be my biggest bet. I might come to eat crow on this but I just don't see Moreno getting the victory here. Outside of a submission (which I might hedge on +600) I just like think Ortiz is too strong, has too good of wrestling, and veteran savvy to go along with durability and conditioning to lose this fight against a young prospect likeMoreno with a litany of holes in his game. I love Brandon and his affable personality plus his fight style, but I just can't get on board with him getting a win here, at 24 years old, he's young and I think he'll grow from the loss but I think he gets grounded into dust by the gritty and grimy Ortiz. lol

Again, I could be dead wrong but I believe it should be more around Dustin Ortiz -220
 
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