UFN 108 - Swanson vs Lobov - Nashville

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Who are my Sig Bets on the Sandoval/Schnell fight with again?

Let's confirm and hash out the details.
You're doing a 1 month sig bet with @Stunna77.

You and I have a bet as well: I change my sig for 1 month if Schnell loses, but you have to rejoin our Sherdog DraftKings events for 4 events in a row if Schnell wins (1 month's worth of events).
 
Wow, I'm actually regretting not playing Moreno at +170. I think Moreno holds the advantage on the feet. Ortiz is the better grappler but he haven't seen that much of Moreno's grappling, his wrestling looked good vs Benoit and he's training with high level guys like Dillashaw in Colorado so he might surprise people. The 5 inch reach advantage is significant too. I think Moreno can box Ortiz up at range, I thought his striking looked really good vs Benoit.

Biggest question is how does Moreno deal with the grappling and wrestling of Ortiz, we haven't seen much TDD from Moreno, he's not really tested and Ortiz is his biggest test.

I think Ortiz is in his prime right now but he's always in close fights, 3 of his last 4 wins were split decisions. That doesn't inspire confidence when I'm looking to make a play.

Big step up for Moreno though and the hometown advantage is relevant for Ortiz. I've considered playing both sides, I'll pick Ortiz but not with confidence, Moreno could surprise people.


Yeah, I understand the concerns, but Ryan Benoit is not anywhere close to as good a fighter as Dustin Ortiz is. What's more, Ryan doesn't possess an nth of the wrestling ability of Ortiz. When have you ever known Dustin to engage in a boxing match. He is consistently in his opponents face grinding the shit out of them against the cage or else putting them on their back and working them over. We're talking about a guy who was able to beat top-notch grapple/wrestlers and high level fighters like Makovsky, Borg, Scoggins while hanging tough with A level guys incidentally Benavidez, Jussier and Reis.

Moreneo is a MASSIVE step down in comp.
 
You're doing a 1 month sig bet with @Stunna77.

You and I have a bet as well: I change my sig for 1 month if Schnell loses, but you have to rejoin our Sherdog DraftKings events for 4 events in a row if Schnell wins (1 month's worth of events).

sounds good.
 
As an MMA expert bettor, do you agree with Gamblou's thoughts on OSP?
At -155, yeah I actually like OSP as a small play. Nothing huge because he can't be trusted. I parlayed him with Cub -3.5

My main play on the fight is the under. Got it was the absolute LOL price of -125 (thanks @EzFlyer !!). Now it's -265. #valuecity #peaklines #timing
 
Yeah, I understand the concerns, but Ryan Benoit is not anywhere close to as good a fighter as Dustin Ortiz is. What's more, Ryan doesn't possess an nth of the wrestling ability of Ortiz. When have you ever known Dustin to engage in a boxing match. He is consistently in his opponents face grinding the shit out of them against the cage or else putting them on their back and working them over. We're talking about a guy who was able to beat top-notch grapple/wrestlers and high level fighters like Makovsky, Borg, Scoggins while hanging tough with A level guys incidentally Benavidez, Jussier and Reis.

Moreneo is a MASSIVE step down in comp.
Yeah Ryan Benoit is one of the worst flyweights in the UFC but Moreno out matched him everywhere, can't believe that was a split. Can't believe Ortiz vs Mach was a split either, thats Canada though.

My biggest fear for Ortiz is him not being able to get the TD's or hold Moreno down, because if he can't he's going to be lost on the feet, the range will be very troubling for him.

Just a really hard fight for me to cap because of the unknowns of Moreno, but from what I've seen he looks very good.
 
Damn, that Moreno money coming in, tempting me on Ortiz.

More Ellenberger money coming in too.
hit Ortiz. I am with @MMA Goodfella on this one, i think he should be -200. Moreno's tdd and grappling will be exposed in this fight. He is too green.

Also, just take Moreno NSC its +175. (i got +210) theres almost no chance Ortiz finishes him, this line should be flipped #LOL #valuetown

I hit Moreno ITD it was +1180 but now its back to +600 range.

#dattimingdoe
 
hit Ortiz. I am with @MMA Goodfella on this one, i think he should be -200.

Also, just take Moreno NSC its +175.

I hit Moreno ITD it was +1180 but now its back to +600 range.
Yeah at -120 Ortiz would be tempting and it may get there but Moreno impresses me, it's hard to bet against him. Might be another split, Ortiz is constantly in close fights.
 
hit Ortiz. I am with @MMA Goodfella on this one, i think he should be -200. Moreno's tdd and grappling will be exposed in this fight. He is too green.

Also, just take Moreno NSC its +175. (i got +210) theres almost no chance Ortiz finishes him, this line should be flipped #LOL #valuetown

I hit Moreno ITD it was +1180 but now its back to +600 range.

#dattimingdoe

Yep I hit those Moreno props but now Ortiz dec is +140 and I think it's by far the most likely outcome. Hitting that too.
 
At -155, yeah I actually like OSP as a small play. Nothing huge because he can't be trusted. I parlayed him with Cub -3.5

My main play on the fight is the under. Got it was the absolute LOL price of -125 (thanks @EzFlyer !!). Now it's -265. #valuecity #peaklines #timing
Agreed, no way can you trust OSP as a -150-odd favourite. The way he quit against Manuwa. The way he just drifts to the scorecards seemingly unconcerned about the outcome of the fight. You can see his heart's just not in it.
 
Agreed, no way can you trust OSP as a -150-odd favourite. The way he quit against Manuwa. The way he just drifts to the scorecards seemingly unconcerned about the outcome of the fight. You can see his heart's just not in it.

his brain and chin may not be in it after the manuwa near decapitation, and his war against oezdamir. red flags for me
 
Yeah Ryan Benoit is one of the worst flyweights in the UFC but Moreno out matched him everywhere, can't believe that was a split. Can't believe Ortiz vs Mach was a split either, thats Canada though.

My biggest fear for Ortiz is him not being able to get the TD's or hold Moreno down, because if he can't he's going to be lost on the feet, the range will be very troubling for him.

Just a really hard fight for me to cap because of the unknowns of Moreno, but from what I've seen he looks very good.

Exactly this. Morenos tdd and scrambling ability is unknown therefore i cannot be confident in ortiz i dont bet blind. Yes i think ortiz wins but no way i bet against someone who has unknowns especially when thats ortiz's only way to win.
 
his brain and chin may not be in it after the manuwa near decapitation, and his war against oezdamir. red flags for me

I totally agree, I still feel good about my De Lima at 2.50 action.
 
When did we last have small cage? Think its pretty much redundant now?

not noticed tbh, small cage tonight?

I totally agree, I still feel good about my De Lima at 2.50 action.

don't blame you, think I'll skip this one though. might go small on some unders or itd bets just before it starts, and try and LB it. if osp grapples then it could be a good LB oppurtunity
 
When did we last have small cage? Think its pretty much redundant now?

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