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Id like to be regarded as #elite im 13-2 with my double/treble last 15 events. Can someone worthy please bestow me with the title #11-1thisyear
Up about 5.55 units. I mentioned that the main event was going to go just like that in the pre-fight thread. But I post sparingly lately and I'm not hashtag #elite so I am sure no one listened, lol.
They fucked up thinking Cub was better than he is and they're pissed. It's no big deal. We are men, we lose money and get pissed and talk like men. Walk into a sportsbook in Vegas and watch dudes throw their bet slips in the air and curse. It's really just how dudes act.
gets outgrappled by alex white. takes down cub and cub wont be even close to submitting him. Retarded
Tonight is my first real L this year, I had a couple other losing events but they were barely losses. But I can actually find a positive from this. I've been absolutely destroying my books this year so I'm happy to lose, it helps the longevity of my accounts, beat your bookie too bad and they ban you.
I'll take my L like a man and come back stronger like I always do. I thought Schnell and Ellenberger were solid plays but they turned out not to be, but my biggest regret is not playing Moreno. I'm winning over 60% and I'm hitting dogs, as long as you win more than you lose, that's all that matter.
I'm an experienced bettor now, in the past when I would take L's, I'd feel like throwing up because these bums make me so sick but now I'm on a totally different level mentally, didn't even break a sweat.
#ComeBackStronger #LearnFromLosses #Grow #DoYourBest #StopGuessingStartWinning #MakePlays #Motivated #GettingMine #GetYours
The old school guys have been crushing it and the team elite is getting crushed. I'm shocked. I thought we were headed into a totally new era.
I have so much to learn. Keep picking big underdogs who have no business winning... Semi-retired fighters... Punchy fighters etc..
I know the odds dictate the play. But the odds make me see value where there may be none...
Another "learning experience" i suppose. I feel like when i watch tape and make a prediction based on stylistic matchups the predictions are usually pretty accurate, but when i rely to heavily on other "elite" bettors opinions i fall on my face everytime.
What did i learn this weekend?
-watch more tape
-do not bet on fading fighters (diego, ellenberger)
-2 team parlays or single bets
-young underdogs around +110 have fucking value
-in regards to WMMA its dog or nothing!!
-fucking watch tape
- dont try to see value where there is none
Two weeks boys till we attack again... Gonna rest up and do my research.
Any tips/suggestions from accomplished bettors here ide give you a listen. Cheers
Well there's a first step to start winning, dont put so much value into what other people think, play the fights you yourself feel most confident in. Blind-tailing is never a good thing, at least when you lose a play you've decided yourself its on you and you learn from it. Feels much than losing a bunch of money based only on what other people think. It's so easy to fall for hype and board the bandwagon thoughI feel like when i watch tape and make a prediction based on stylistic matchups the predictions are usually pretty accurate, but when i rely to heavily on other "elite" bettors opinions i fall on my face everytime.
Wow that's very impressive. Great job man.Won 23-24 units I think .. I'll add it up in a bit.. huge night.
Here is my advice, take of it what you will:
I think some people try to make things more complicated than they are. When you boil down what we're doing here, it's just using your knowledge to assign a probability to an event, and then comparing the % of it happening to what a book is offering. That's it, nothing complicated about it. That's literally all that "finding value" is. Seems almost stupid to even post it, I'm sure most in here would read that and say "No shit!", but then I see some things that get posted and I'm like "WTF?"
So that's the first part, the second is bankroll management. A lesson that most of us have learned the hard way. Figuring out how much to bet on something isn't quite as simple as the first part, but when you combine good BR with finding value that's when you have the most successful bettors imo.
Here's what I mean: So let's say you have a fight where you think one guy wins about 2/3 the time (66.7%), but the line is even. Obviously you see great value on him as you are getting paid even $ on an event that you think cashes 2 out of ever 3 times it transpires (obviously the fight will only happen once, but you understand what I mean). That would justify a pretty good sized play imo. Your projected ROI will be excellent in this scenario. Generally (assuming you are using roughly 1% of your BR as a unit) this would be a 3-4 unit play for me. Now take another scenario. Fighter x has a KO prop paying +1400. I think that line is way off and that fighter x actually has a 15-20% chance of winning by KO. Now, the math says that my projected ROI on this prop is amazing, but no way in hell would I make a 3-4 unit play on it. Because even by my projections, I'm losing my bet 80-85% of the time on this prop. If I do hit I get paid extremely well, but your BR can't take a whole bunch of 3-4 unit hits chasing props that are gonna lose the overwhelming majority of the time.
Everything I said here seems insanely obvious, and maybe this was zero help at all. But this is stuff I had to figure out on my own when I started, and I wish someone would have actually broken it down for me because I had to go busto to learn my lesson.
Congrats on the last minute Moreno bet @MMA Goodfella