UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas

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I watched all Maia tape last night and Masvidal. I think you are right. Masvidal win here....
Masvidal has speed. His hands are fast. He throws good combinations. He's light on his feet. And now he's aggressive.

Definitely on mas
 
Masvidal's camp sounds great, guy is on another level mentally. Maia should be shook, he better show up to take his L


Maia might lose, no question. But "shook". Uhh, no. I'm gonna guess if he showed up for his fight with prime Anderson Silva he's gonna come in for the Mas fight BAU.
 
I remember why i had Gambling Expert ignored. Is he Robbie? "Mas will win easy. I am an expert. Maia shook." constant dribble and ignoring any reasonable retort that doesn't align to his narrative.

I couldn't be really confident either way but think JB is right in his thoughts re: Mas' stance and Maia being able to exploit it. Mas as fav doesn't make sense to me either...
 
His split loss against Al Iaquinta was #NumerOneBullshit
He reflected on his split decision loses and he realised that he wasn't convincing the judges.
He has found his killer instinct

Like Captain Kenny said, stats are useful but are just one piece that must be factored in conjunction with recently available info to see the truth.

I can tell you'll be a great if you are not already though Jamah, you think about things on ore than just the surface level. A fighters mindset, alternate gameplans, possible hidden injuries, ect all come into account just as much as tape study.

MMAGamblngExpert - I thnk you'll make a nice comeback this event. With you on Masvidal, so I bless you.

K-Brown - Dont talk about who average bettors are on, instead look within yourself and stop projecting. Earn your respect, know it can be put in jeopardy and try not to lose right before you demand it.

Had a lil something for JB as well but I'll spare him for now out of respect.

For all that, I offer Masvidal by KO before the 3rd and will explain why when appropriate, as in after someone makes an ass of themselves responding to me.
 
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I remember why i had Gambling Expert ignored. Is he Robbie? "Mas will win easy. I am an expert. Maia shook." constant dribble and ignoring any reasonable retort that doesn't align to his narrative.

I couldn't be really confident either way but think JB is right in his thoughts re: Mas' stance and Maia being able to exploit it. Mas as fav doesn't make sense to me either...
Mas said in an interview that it he is gonna change his stance for maia not that he will for sure but hes an experienced fighter and hes not stupid. Masvidal seems like a bad matchup for him, he has good distance management, good combinations, good defensive wrestling and a fearless mentality. He has been working very hard on his wrestling and i dont really see the size difference being that much of factor because mas will be much faster and more fluent, kind of like whittaker jacare.
Do you guys think this is a do or die for maia? he may retire if he loses hes getting up there in age.
 
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Like Captain Kenny said, stats are useful but are just one piece that must be factored in conjunction with recently available info to see the truth.

I can tell you'll be a great if you are not already though Jamah, you think about things on ore than just the surface level. A fighters mindset, alternate gameplans, possible hidden injuries, ect all come into account just as much as tape study.

MMAGamblngExpert - I thnk you'll make a nice comeback this event. With you on Masvidal, so I bless you.

K-Brown - Dont talk about who average bettors are on, instead look within yourself and stop projecting. Earn your respect, know it can be put in jeopardy and try not to lose right before you demand it.

Had a lil something for JB as well but I'll spare him for now out of respect.

For all that, I offer Masvidal by KO before the 3rd and will explain why when appropriate, as in after someone makes an ass of themselves responding to me.

At first I sort of found all the silly self aggrandizement and ridiculous condescending tone you guys are all using annoying. But now I kinda like it, because I don't know exactly how seriously each person is actually taking themselves. It's kinda fun.

So kudos, good post man LOL.
 
Anyone else fading Branch? Imo he looks bad on tape. His wins over bums are so overated. He is just Will brooks 2.0 coming to the ufc and will be exposed quickly
even worse. At least Brooks beat Chandler x2. Who has Branch beat? WSOF title defences < UFC fight pass fights
 
Mas said in an interview that it he is gonna change his stance for maia not that he will for sure but hes an experienced fighter and hes not stupid. Masvidal seems like a bad matchup for him, he has good distance management, good combinations, good defensive wrestling and a fearless mentality. He has been working very hard on his wrestling and i dont really see the size difference being that much of factor because mas will be much faster and more fluent, kind of like whittaker jacare.
Do you guys think this is a do or die for maia? he may retire if he loses hes getting up there in age.
As i said I am not super confident either way. It's hard to imagine someone being comfortable changing what they've done for so long though.

I do think it's do or die for Maia however. If he wins he cannot be denied a title fight even though they'll try and force him into a quick turnaround in July. If he loses, he'll never get near the title shot. That has little to no significance on the fight itself for me though
 
new or old rules im expecting draws to be profitable. more 10-8. hasnt lead to lots of draw yet for what ever reason but it should have produced more than we have seen recently
I was so close hitting the draw on Cummins Blacowicz.

its gonna hit soon. This is a perf fight for it to happen.
 
As i said I am not super confident either way. It's hard to imagine someone being comfortable changing what they've done for so long though.

I do think it's do or die for Maia however. If he wins he cannot be denied a title fight even though they'll try and force him into a quick turnaround in July. If he loses, he'll never get near the title shot. That has little to no significance on the fight itself for me though
its really not difficult to lower your stance a bit tho especially considering the matchup
 
maia's stand up is decent. i wouldn't say it is HORRIBLE (michael mcbride level). He has tight defense. He is not a KO artist but he isn't getting KO'd too. He has been stopped by strikes just once in his career against prime Nate and we know how hard prime Nate hits. Masvidal is not a one punch killer. In that regards Masvidals striking is less dangerous for Maia than Woodley's
#SpittingTruth for the masses here. And yes, fade branch. Jotko looks like he might be the most well versed fighter on the ufc roster.
 
its really not difficult to lower your stance a bit tho especially considering the matchup
I wouldn't be willing to take that risk with him as fav. For anyone who got the +160 or whatever it was, fair enough. As a favourite? Madness imo. At least wait to live-bet if the signs are there. Just my 2c anyway. It's a pass for me, gun to head i pick Maia by decision. +320 but i think there is better odds around
 
Been a fan of Masvidal for a long time, but I'm all over Maia here at + odds
 
Mas looks good, I've thought that since day one. But Maia has faced higher level comp and seems to have perfected his game.

Risk for sure.
 
Cejudo via points is one of the safer picks on this card. Both are decision machines and fav has much better wrestling.

Hmmm I'm for sure gonna stake something on Yair via KO+round. Value should be decent there.
 
IDK if its the annoying banter regarding the topic or if I really dont have a strong enough lean on the fight, but I really feel like passing on the Maia/Masvidal fight now

real tough to pick, jumped on Maia when he went to dog but not as confident now, if they fought 100 times think theyd each win around 50
 
At first I sort of found all the silly self aggrandizement and ridiculous condescending tone you guys are all using annoying. But now I kinda like it, because I don't know exactly how seriously each person is actually taking themselves. It's kinda fun.

So kudos, good post man LOL.

I'm the opposite, at first i thought it was all a big joke and found it amusing, now im convinced theyre all serious
 
@FightOdds.io What are your expert tout plays for this event?
I guess you caught me lurking! First off just want to say big ups to this thread, the discussions and content posted on here are so valuable for capping fights.

I wouldn't necessarily call them "tout" or define them as "expert" plays, but since your asked ill share my thoughts!

I like Stipe not ITD (-173), I missed the opening line at -102 and I'm hoping to get around -150. I think a lot of people are over estimating Stipe's ability to KO JDS since he's won his last 4 fights by KO. Each of those wins were all against fighters over the hill and with suspect chins. JDS has been through a ton of wars, but he's still 32 and has never been KO'd (TKO'd twice however). I watched JDS last 3 fights and I think he still has the chin to hold up. I'm personally cap the fight as 50/50 with Stipe winning ITD about 45% of the time (this equates to -344), so I see value even at -173.

Maia/Mas is a toss up for me. Maia being a former middleweight and Mas being a former lightweight, I see Maia having the strength, size and technique to be able to take down Mas and at least control him for 2 rounds. The fact that he's 39 yrs old worries me tho and I won't be betting him unless he's a bigger dog. Basically for me if either fighter is in the +150 range by fight time I will bet them.
 
real tough to pick, jumped on Maia when he went to dog but not as confident now, if they fought 100 times think theyd each win around 50
Oddly enough, I think i'm gonna be on Masvidal by decision. I can't decide how Masvidal is going to respond if he gets taken down. Is he gonna get subbed? Is he gonna try and stall to get to the end of the round? Too many question to make a play on Maia Dec or Maia Sub. I refuse to bet on this fight straight up. Odds are too close and it really comes down to one aspect that's a bit difficult to cap imo

With that being said, i can see Mas peppering Maia if he's able to avoid getting taken down. i dont think a Mas finish is very likely because he would have to be somewhat careful not to over commit. He must realize he's so close to a title shot and being overaggressive can lead to Maia getting the fight to the ground. More so, if Maia isnt able to get the takedown, i can see him just diving for legs or avoiding striking engages the fight like he did with Anderson for 3-4 rounds. I think Mas by DEC is probably the prop with the most value at this point. Ill be on it for a unit at +260
 
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