UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas

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I'm personally cap the fight as 50/50 with Stipe winning ITD about 45% of the time (this equates to -344), so I see value even at -173.
i may have had one too many drinks tonight, but how does 45% equate to -344?

Edit I mean 55% for not stipe itd. You know what I mean

Double edit I'm still lost. If you cap Stipe itd at 45% then any other result equates 55% which is -122. How is there value at -173 and how did you get -344 as the true line
 
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i may have had one too many drinks tonight, but how does 45% equate to -344?

Edit I mean 55% for not stipe itd. You know what I mean
Oh sorry. I didn't explain that correctly at all lol. I meant basically IF stipe were to win, i cap that he would win ITD 45% of the time. So 22.5% (50% * 45%) chance of winning ITD and 77.5% chance he won't win ITD which is equal to -344.
 
Oh sorry. I didn't explain that correctly at all lol. I meant basically IF stipe were to win, i cap that he would win ITD 45% of the time. So 22.5% (50% * 45%) chance of winning ITD and 77.5% chance he won't win ITD which is equal to -344.
LOL yea I should have noticed that my bad. Wish you had just said you cap Stipe itd at 22.5% ;)
 
Oddly enough, I think i'm gonna be on Masvidal by decision. I can't decide how Masvidal is going to respond if he gets taken down. Is he gonna get subbed? Is he gonna try and stall to get to the end of the round? Too many question to make a play on Maia Dec or Maia Sub. I refuse to bet on this fight straight up. Odds are too close and it really comes down to one aspect that's a bit difficult to cap imo

With that being said, i can see Mas peppering Maia if he's able to avoid getting taken down. i dont think a Mas finish is very likely because he would have to be somewhat careful not to over commit. He must realize he's so close to a title shot and being overaggressive can lead to Maia getting the fight to the ground. More so, if Maia isnt able to get the takedown, i can see him just diving for legs or avoiding striking engages the fight like he did with Anderson for 3-4 rounds. I think Mas by DEC is probably the prop with the most value at this point. Ill be on it for a unit at +260

Yeah i'm 1 unit deep on maia but gonna avoid anything else and live bet as I think there could be some fun to be had there.

If Maia Fails with a few takedowns, as long as he isnt getting too peppered by that stage, Masvidal's odds might not plummet too much and a play on him could prove fruitful. If Maia does get a takedown will be interesting to see how odds react, Rogan's Commentary probably won't help haha as he always stresses how good Maia is on the ground over and over

Like you said so many questions that can't be answered til we see the fight, which is what makes it an exciting fight, I think anyone with a real strong lean on this has failed to look past there own bias
 
wow so many confident picks on maia/masvidal

in b4 the 20u bets start flying!
 
I like Stipe not ITD (-173), I missed the opening line at -102 and I'm hoping to get around -150. I think a lot of people are over estimating Stipe's ability to KO JDS since he's won his last 4 fights by KO. Each of those wins were all against fighters over the hill and with suspect chins..

Stipe not ITD is currently -120 at betway if anyone is interested and got an account there
 
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Anyone else fading Branch? Imo he looks bad on tape. His wins over bums are so overated. He is just Will brooks 2.0 coming to the ufc and will be exposed quickly
It was pretty obvious since Brooks' fight against Pearson, that he was not comfortable fighting in UFC. WSOF record is not worth that much in UFC, but no reason to fade fighters like him until we can see if they can do something with their momentum at this level.
 
Tip of the day:

"Variables are always in constant fluctuation in the sports betting landscape."

I've made more money "exploiting" microscopic inefficiencies than dolts who think they can make more through arbitrage. I'm ruthless as the Borg and sting like a raw bee. I wear my $harp critical thinking hat as a badge of honor and bar none, Barrygood1's handicapping skills are second to none. (Shameful plug for BG1's handicapping service)

The same doofuses throwing jabs at me for losing a bet or think they know best when it comes to handicapping are rutabagas of the vegetable world. They think they're hard, but they're just rats stuck in a rut i.e sewer dwellers.

I browse this damn thread when time permits or when I'm waiting for my in & out burger and it's flat out appalling what I come across. 5 fighter parlays, laying more juice than Rich Piana, bet slips built on "perception", chasing, overbetting and a whole slew of rinky dink circus shit. Shameful.

If there's one piece of advice I would give upon my last dying breath, it would be this: "this ain't no get rich quick fix, it's about finding value day after day, month after month and year after year. There'll be highs & lows, peaks & dips, valleys & plateaus, but those with the God given will to succeed will reach the summit, by everything that is holy in this world."

* This reply isn't in response to the anti-barry haters or the unsavory crowd along the side of the road throwing rocks. I'm not mad either, so don't even bother with the whole "oh, he mad" or whatever that Bill O' Reilly/Cam'Ron meme is. Not everyone has to get along, but we all need to be on the same page when it comes to beating the bookies. They're our true mortal enemies and we need to unite like the band of brothers to bring forth an onslaught that would make Thanos proud!

I am a cool dude despite how the sherdog betting community may feel. I try for the most part to stay in my lane. However, if you're thumping your chest like some alpha ape throwing shit my way, then I will defend my self by any means necessary. My livelihood is built from my reputation as a legitimate handicapper and it's how I make ends meet along with betting. After my breakup with my ex-gf some unscrupulous e-jerks thought it would be lulzy to verbally taunt me. No names will be mentioned but I have a good idea who their Sherdog aliases are!

I really am thinking whether or not to give any more free picks from this point on. I've almost reached the boiling point. I thank my subscribers, fans and bros who're aboard the bandwagon, but it's the naysayers who make my time contributing to this community, "all for naught."

UFC211 might be my final free pick and a farewell. I never thought in my wildest dreams a select group of e-thugs could sap the the life-force from me. Of course, the $500 free pick offer is still on the table but it's looking like the last free lunch offered from yours truly. We'll see... All good things come to an end... right?

Thank you for reading what I wrote. I am delicate and fragile inside despite my diamond exterior and I needed to vent a bit of frustration.


- Barry
 
Tip of the day:

"Variables are always in constant fluctuation in the sports betting landscape."

I've made more money "exploiting" microscopic inefficiencies than dolts who think they can make more through arbitrage. I'm ruthless as the Borg and sting like a raw bee. I wear my $harp critical thinking hat as a badge of honor and bar none, Barrygood1's handicapping skills are second to none. (Shameful plug for BG1's handicapping service)

The same doofuses throwing jabs at me for losing a bet or think they know best when it comes to handicapping are rutabagas of the vegetable world. They think they're hard, but they're just rats stuck in a rut i.e sewer dwellers.

I browse this damn thread when time permits or when I'm waiting for my in & out burger and it's flat out appalling what I come across. 5 fighter parlays, laying more juice than Rich Piana, bet slips built on "perception", chasing, overbetting and a whole slew of rinky dink circus shit. Shameful.

If there's one piece of advice I would give upon my last dying breath, it would be this: "this ain't no get rich quick fix, it's about finding value day after day, month after month and year after year. There'll be highs & lows, peaks & dips, valleys & plateaus, but those with the God given will to succeed will reach the summit, by everything that is holy in this world."

* This reply isn't in response to the anti-barry haters or the unsavory crowd along the side of the road throwing rocks. I'm not mad either, so don't even bother with the whole "oh, he mad" or whatever that Bill O' Reilly/Cam'Ron meme is. Not everyone has to get along, but we all need to be on the same page when it comes to beating the bookies. They're our true mortal enemies and we need to unite like the band of brothers to bring forth an onslaught that would make Thanos proud!

I am a cool dude despite how the sherdog betting community may feel. I try for the most part to stay in my lane. However, if you're thumping your chest like some alpha ape throwing shit my way, then I will defend my self by any means necessary. My livelihood is built from my reputation as a legitimate handicapper and it's how I make ends meet along with betting. After my breakup with my ex-gf some unscrupulous e-jerks thought it would be lulzy to verbally taunt me. No names will be mentioned but I have a good idea who their Sherdog aliases are!

I really am thinking whether or not to give any more free picks from this point on. I've almost reached the boiling point. I thank my subscribers, fans and bros who're aboard the bandwagon, but it's the naysayers who make my time contributing to this community, "all for naught."

UFC211 might be my final free pick and a farewell. I never thought in my wildest dreams a select group of e-thugs could sap the the life-force from me. Of course, the $500 free pick offer is still on the table but it's looking like the last free lunch offered from yours truly. We'll see... All good things come to an end... right?

Thank you for reading what I wrote. I am delicate and fragile inside despite my diamond exterior and I needed to vent a bit of frustration.


- Barry

Is this the same ex GF as last year or a different one?

Barry...we care. You are a national treasure buddy. Hope it all works out for you.
 
Tip of the day:

"Variables are always in constant fluctuation in the sports betting landscape."

I've made more money "exploiting" microscopic inefficiencies than dolts who think they can make more through arbitrage. I'm ruthless as the Borg and sting like a raw bee. I wear my $harp critical thinking hat as a badge of honor and bar none, Barrygood1's handicapping skills are second to none. (Shameful plug for BG1's handicapping service)

The same doofuses throwing jabs at me for losing a bet or think they know best when it comes to handicapping are rutabagas of the vegetable world. They think they're hard, but they're just rats stuck in a rut i.e sewer dwellers.

I browse this damn thread when time permits or when I'm waiting for my in & out burger and it's flat out appalling what I come across. 5 fighter parlays, laying more juice than Rich Piana, bet slips built on "perception", chasing, overbetting and a whole slew of rinky dink circus shit. Shameful.

If there's one piece of advice I would give upon my last dying breath, it would be this: "this ain't no get rich quick fix, it's about finding value day after day, month after month and year after year. There'll be highs & lows, peaks & dips, valleys & plateaus, but those with the God given will to succeed will reach the summit, by everything that is holy in this world."

* This reply isn't in response to the anti-barry haters or the unsavory crowd along the side of the road throwing rocks. I'm not mad either, so don't even bother with the whole "oh, he mad" or whatever that Bill O' Reilly/Cam'Ron meme is. Not everyone has to get along, but we all need to be on the same page when it comes to beating the bookies. They're our true mortal enemies and we need to unite like the band of brothers to bring forth an onslaught that would make Thanos proud!

I am a cool dude despite how the sherdog betting community may feel. I try for the most part to stay in my lane. However, if you're thumping your chest like some alpha ape throwing shit my way, then I will defend my self by any means necessary. My livelihood is built from my reputation as a legitimate handicapper and it's how I make ends meet along with betting. After my breakup with my ex-gf some unscrupulous e-jerks thought it would be lulzy to verbally taunt me. No names will be mentioned but I have a good idea who their Sherdog aliases are!

I really am thinking whether or not to give any more free picks from this point on. I've almost reached the boiling point. I thank my subscribers, fans and bros who're aboard the bandwagon, but it's the naysayers who make my time contributing to this community, "all for naught."

UFC211 might be my final free pick and a farewell. I never thought in my wildest dreams a select group of e-thugs could sap the the life-force from me. Of course, the $500 free pick offer is still on the table but it's looking like the last free lunch offered from yours truly. We'll see... All good things come to an end... right?

Thank you for reading what I wrote. I am delicate and fragile inside despite my diamond exterior and I needed to vent a bit of frustration.


- Barry

So who's ya top pick for 211 Bazza?
 
A lot of guys (not all), who profess to be the sharpest sharp on this thread, go really really quiet when they lose. Noticed it in the last event particularly.
 
I guess you caught me lurking! First off just want to say big ups to this thread, the discussions and content posted on here are so valuable for capping fights.

I wouldn't necessarily call them "tout" or define them as "expert" plays, but since your asked ill share my thoughts!

I like Stipe not ITD (-173), I missed the opening line at -102 and I'm hoping to get around -150. I think a lot of people are over estimating Stipe's ability to KO JDS since he's won his last 4 fights by KO. Each of those wins were all against fighters over the hill and with suspect chins. JDS has been through a ton of wars, but he's still 32 and has never been KO'd (TKO'd twice however). I watched JDS last 3 fights and I think he still has the chin to hold up. I'm personally cap the fight as 50/50 with Stipe winning ITD about 45% of the time (this equates to -344), so I see value even at -173.

Maia/Mas is a toss up for me. Maia being a former middleweight and Mas being a former lightweight, I see Maia having the strength, size and technique to be able to take down Mas and at least control him for 2 rounds. The fact that he's 39 yrs old worries me tho and I won't be betting him unless he's a bigger dog. Basically for me if either fighter is in the +150 range by fight time I will bet them.
Some interesting thoughts right there, I think Stipe will finish JDS but a decision is very possible too, JDS has declined since their first meeting, Overeem cracked his chin, I think JDS has taken too much damage and Stipe will be able to find the chin unlike Rothwell who was just too slow. I like Stipe moneyline and I'll like it more if the line keeps tightening.

Seems like you know your stuff though, be good to hear your thoughts more often.
 
This Masvidal vs Maia talk is getting silly now, people are either going round in circles like myself or they are talking about irrelevant information.

Even worse people are calling it a coin flip or a toss up. Believe me this fight will not look like a coin flip. One side is going to dominate the other, there's a massive contrast in styles and whoever implements their game successfully will win and do so easily. I said the same thing about the Cormier vs Johnson fight.
 
I need to get back the $200 I lost on Weidman so gonna do $200 on Maia and hope I don't get even farther behind. Lol
 
A lot of guys (not all), who profess to be the sharpest sharp on this thread, go really really quiet when they lose. Noticed it in the last event particularly.
Idk why that's a bad thing though. I'm depressed as fuck when I'm down/if I lose lol seems pretty normal
 
A lot of guys (not all), who profess to be the sharpest sharp on this thread, go really really quiet when they lose. Noticed it in the last event particularly.
Who are you referring to?

Better not be me, cause I own my L, losing is a big deal to me so when it happens you'll know.

IDK where Goodfella is at though seems like he's been getting rekt.
 
A lot of guys (not all), who profess to be the sharpest sharp on this thread, go really really quiet when they lose. Noticed it in the last event particularly.
Not me. I piss and moan like nobody's business LOL. Like when I lost 16 damn units a few events ago.

But that said in this being my 13th year of MMA betting I've only had 2 losing years. One was brutally bad but overall I'm up a very good amount.

But I will always own my losses.
 
Not me. I piss and moan like nobody's business LOL. Like when I lost 16 damn units a few events ago.

But that said in this being my 13th year of MMA betting I've only had 2 losing years. One was brutally bad but overall I'm up a very good amount.

But I will always own my losses.
Well @lawmills2006 better start naming names, clearly taking shots, but at who? tell us @lawmills2006
 
Well @lawmills2006 better start naming names, clearly taking shots, but at who? tell us @lawmills2006
I hope he is not talking about me me because my sig even says publicly that I suck and I have lost a lot of money. I'm not running anywhere. Still considering myself as an elite bettor and I will shock everybody with my big wins in the near future. But I prolly know who he meant but no need to say these names. Let it be
I made some changes in my tactics. special shoutout goes to @Joseph Budden and @Oblivian who gave me expert advice how to handle this situation. Hopefully it works out for me.
 
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