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Nice, I'm with you on all of them.
Really like Chiesa here, as you say he's bigger, more durable and I think he can push a pace that Lee can't match. Lee is young and constantly improving but for me there's questions of his chin. He got finished by Santos who dropped him, mounted him then punished him with punches as Lee gave up his back in rushing to stand up. Lee had a great come from behind win vs Trinaldo but he was badly hurt and I think most thought he was done for as he got back to his stool. Even more concerning was how when hurt he turned into a panic wrestler, shooting from miles out.
Don't think that'll play well against Chiesa who although not great defensively has come a decent way in his stand up. I think the way Chiesa throws punches will cause issues for Lee, a lot of straight punches similar to what got him caught against Santos. If memory serves, Chiesa dropped Masvidal with a similar punch.
Lee usually has a 5-7 inch reach advantage (77" reach). He won't have that here as Chiesa is 76" reach and one of the few taller opponents Lee has fought (the other main one being Santos, both 6'1", Santos also being the only fighter Lee faced with a reach over 73" (Santos 75" - every other opponent other than Tuck was 67"-72" and around the same height as Lee).
I don't like the way Lee gives up his back when in trouble, against Chiesa that's a death sentence. He gave it up against Santos (who kept punching instead and got the TKO) and against Trinaldo his lazy shots when hurt ended in him being easily sprawled on and Trinaldo electing not to take it.
Chiesa is one of the best backtakers in MMA and adept at finishing the fight when he gets it, no doubt in my mind had it been Chiesa in those 2 spots, he'd have been sinking in a RNC.
This turned into an essay, but I think Lee may struggle with Chiesa pace, durability, size and long punches. I see him getting hurt and defaulting to his wrestling in the 2nd or 3rd when he starts to tire and Lee giving up his back and being choked out shortly afterwards.
I'm on Chiesa, but think Lee's striking is going to give Chiesa fits. I feel Chiesa will get it done by causing a scramble situation, which he has the killer instinct in. This fight is 5 rounds, so I feel Lee will fade as it goes on.
But I am scared shitless of Lee flatlining Chiesa