UFN 112 - Chiesa vs Lee - Oklahoma City

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JB what are your bets for tonight?
Vettori + Esparza. Vettori itd. Means in 2 or 3. Herrig NSC. Stans - Kimball starts round 2 + Martin/Case o2.5.

Weird event that i'm kinda gonna play as I go. Eyeing Herrig and BJ no sc. Have a prop round robin thats continuing and off to a good start hitting 3 of 5 last night (Mitrione, Couture dec, Bader dec. Missed Larkin dec and Gallagher dec) prob just livebet and keep my eye on that hoping it rakes in some dough
 
I was just about to comment and say how I liked Garcia DEC at +1000. I went to go bet and it is now +1250... 0.5u


EDIT: I do also have some Tim Means in a parlay at -240 and ITD straight -120. I'm now essentially on "Not Garcia ITD"

yep. bizarre. i really think decision is garcia's much more realistic chance for a win, dirty brid has a chin
 
NOT Chiesa/Lee FOTN at -245 is pretty tempting. At the very least it's a definite freeroll for anyone who hit the opener

whoa, i wish i did more than 0.3u at +500!

-245 not fotn? on a 13 fight card? i might have to
 
I like Quinones as a dog here! Confident in that pick! Then I have Penn, but not so confident lol. But then Cheisa as well. 3 dogs could very well bark tonight.

i've got a half unit on quinones and a half unit on quinones dec +3xx, i like that quite a bit
 
Lost my bank card today and it's late night here, bankroll divided differently. Can't bet for fuck sake.

Id go so hard on Boetsch, BJ Penn and Chiesa tho. like 3 units on each, minimum.
 
Not quite understanding the odds on Vettori. Miranda is getting up there in age but he's looked a lot better in his UFC fights than Vettori.. Throwing .5u on Miranda ITD at +600.
 
2,5u BJ Penn 2.75
2,5u Lee + Mayweather 2.10
1,5u Esparza + Vettori 1.79
1,5u Herrig 1.90
1,25u Boetsch/Hendricks U2.5 + Means/Garcia ITD 3.31
1,25u Means + Stansbury/Kimball ITD 2.20
1,0u Esparza + Stansbury 2.20
0,75u both ♀ fights O2.5 2.02
0,75u Gordon + Vettori 2.20
0,5u Case 2.25
0,5u Penn/Siver O2.5 + Christensen/Reyes ITD 2.41
0,5u Chiesa ITD 2.75 (small hedge on the 2,5u Lee ML)
0,25u Guida 3.75

After Hendricks kills Boetsch I will make another 5.4u (closes 3 parlays, initial risk 1,25u).
I had a fourth big parlay to be closed by a Hendricks win, but I cashed out on that one
- it would have broken my heart if Hendricks somehow hurts his angle and I get out no money at all from my precious parlays.
I am still very confident in Hendricks though!

Initially I had 2.5u on Boetsch/Hendricks U2.5, I cashed it out though and did the parlay with Means/Garcia ITD instead.

If Lee loses I hope he gets brutally finished at least (like the finish that Maia got on Story) - I really dislike that dude.

GL to everyone!
When's the last time Hendricks killed anyone, let alone a guy that's way bigger and stronger?
 
Not quite understanding the odds on Vettori. Miranda is getting up there in age but he's looked a lot better in his UFC fights than Vettori.. Throwing .5u on Miranda ITD at +600.

I think it has to do with vettori's ground game keeping up with shoeface and winning a round versus Miranda getting grapple fuxked by camozzi.

I'm staying away from it though.
 
What do you guys think is BJs likely route to victory here? I want to bet him but he's only +125 SU now. Prop wise though I can get Dec +500 ITD +350, KO +600 sub +500 and sub/Dec +210.

It seems like they're a bit all over the place and I'd be able to get a better profit on him winning by backing 2 props on him that cover a Penn win; either Dec + ITD and hope for a Dec, or KO for 1 bet and the sub/Dec for the other.

Those of you betting BJ, what are you actually giving him chances wise, both just in terms of winning and the likelihood of each method? Most of the reasoning I've seen on this fight is just betting cos Silver looks awful and BJ not as bad and its lower level competition than he's had, but in terms of strategy and that not seen much.

I should probably just leave this geriatric fight alone but not betting a BJ Penn fight feels wrong.
 
What do you guys think is BJs likely route to victory here? I want to bet him but he's only +125 SU now. Prop wise though I can get Dec +500 ITD +350, KO +600 sub +500 and sub/Dec +210.

It seems like they're a bit all over the place and I'd be able to get a better profit on him winning by backing 2 props on him that cover a Penn win; either Dec + ITD and hope for a Dec, or KO for 1 bet and the sub/Dec for the other.

Those of you betting BJ, what are you actually giving him chances wise, both just in terms of winning and the likelihood of each method? Most of the reasoning I've seen on this fight is just betting cos Silver looks awful and BJ not as bad and its lower level competition than he's had, but in terms of strategy and that not seen much.

I should probably just leave this geriatric fight alone but not betting a BJ Penn fight feels wrong.
Sub/dec +210 is a nice angle
 
Feel like Esparza DEC should be the play but I have a strange feeling Carla going to go ADCC on Moroz. Anyone thnk Carla gets the RNC?

For the information I offer the fact BJ only wins ITD, Siver is hard to KO especially quickly, BJ will have a hard time getting takedowns and will likely gas if he fails his first 2 attempts. BJ is low volume and Siver should be more active. Siver has 5 sub losses but dont let that fool you, he is hard to sub too. Siver is also not a quitter and BJ is washed up, I suggest no one bets BJ.
 
I think it has to do with vettori's ground game keeping up with shoeface and winning a round versus Miranda getting grapple fuxked by camozzi.

I'm staying away from it though.

bingo: it's the cammozi fight. and as a guy who's also on miranda.. i can't really argue that logic TOO much, hehe.
 
Tim is usually first to make cruical mistakes when someone fights him toe-to-toe, but yeah, I would not bet on Hendricks to do that at current odds.

other than the hermann fight, tim only loses to top 185s. he was argubally on his way to beating thales before he got submitted.

hendricks is not a top 185 nor will he ever be.
 
well, i've definitely gone the sloppy degenerate route with this card rather than cool and calculated, let's see if it pays off.
 
Kimball upset in the first fight to start the night off well.
 
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