UFC Fox 25 - Weidman vs Gastelum - Long Island

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You're assuming a lot of stuff that probably is not true.

Moose has been laid on before. Kelvin has been laid on in 2 fights. To assume Kelvin is easier to lay on is very debatable.

Kennedy has showed great top control while Weidman actually hasn't.

And to not be worried about cardio with Weidman is like saying you're not worried about Overeems chin

I don't think it's that debatable to say gastelum is likely easier to lay on than moose, the size differential is a big factor here, if magny can get the better of gastelum on the floor i see no reason why the more skilled much stronger weidman can't. and we know how legit moose's grappling is. he's a decent sized mw also and has fought at lhw many times. weidman nearly subbed moose early on also.

weidman's cardio doesn't really worry me because I'm planning on greening a trade if weidman can control the grappling early, the rest of the fight is irrelevant to my bet atm, unless he shits the bed and gasses in 3 minutes that is...
 
I don't think it's that debatable to say gastelum is likely easier to lay on than moose, the size differential is a big factor here, if magny can get the better of gastelum on the floor i see no reason why the more skilled much stronger weidman can't. and we know how legit moose's grappling is. he's a decent sized mw also and has fought at lhw many times. weidman nearly subbed moose early on also.

weidman's cardio doesn't really worry me because I'm planning on greening a trade if weidman can control the grappling early, the rest of the fight is irrelevant to my bet atm, unless he shits the bed and gasses in 3 minutes that is...

Weidman's top control sucks big time, he can take anybody down but he can't hold them.
Based on his previous fights:
Is he going to be able to take Gastelum down? Yeah
Is he going to be able to hold him down? Not sure
Is he going to slow down hard after a few rounds? Most likely, yeah
 
Weidman's top control sucks big time, he can take anybody down but he can't hold them.
Based on his previous fights:
Is he going to be able to take Gastelum down? Yeah
Is he going to be able to hold him down? Not sure
Is he going to slow down hard after a few rounds? Most likely, yeah

TD will be sufficient for my betting purposes here, I'll take those odds with his strength and size advantage.
 
not too mention his line shortening already
 
Weidman's top control sucks big time, he can take anybody down but he can't hold them.
Based on his previous fights:
Is he going to be able to take Gastelum down? Yeah
Is he going to be able to hold him down? Not sure
Is he going to slow down hard after a few rounds? Most likely, yeah

This pretty much sums it up for me. The only thing I'd add:
If/when Gastelum ends up in the bad positions that he did against Magny, can Weidman take advantage and grab a sub or land some big gnp? Possibly

But like @Roads55 is saying, and others have said as well, it's unlikely Chris gets finished early and it's pretty likely he wins the first round or 2, so betting Chris pre-fight and looking to live bet Gastelum is the way to go here IMO.
 
I would bet on Bryan Barberena against Weidman, styles make fights.
 
I would bet on Bryan Barberena against Weidman, styles make fights.

C'mon now.
Weidman's cardio is not the best but he gave Mous, Yoel, and rockhold trouble. Barberena would get ragdolled. Gastelum is a WW who is too lazy/ill-prepared to make it.
Barberena is a LW who is too lazy to make it. Hypothetically I cap Chris weidman as -2000 vs barberna. His biggest moment is choking Sage. Chris ko'd anderson silva.

I think this will be similar to yoel vs robert. Chris wins early and Kelvin takes over late.
I see The Chris doing good early using his length to front kick to get Kelvin upright and setup takedowns(IE vs Mark Munoz). I don't see him using the same gameplan as he used versus romero as that gameplan was to make Yoel work because he had suspect cardio. He'll use a more technical approach against kelvin as Kelvin likely has the cardio advantage.
 
C'mon now.
Weidman's cardio is not the best but he gave Mous, Yoel, and rockhold trouble. Barberena would get ragdolled. Gastelum is a WW who is too lazy/ill-prepared to make it.
Barberena is a LW who is too lazy to make it. Hypothetically I cap Chris weidman as -2000 vs barberna. His biggest moment is choking Sage. Chris ko'd anderson silva.

I think this will be similar to yoel vs robert. Chris wins early and Kelvin takes over late.
I see The Chris doing good early using his length to front kick to get Kelvin upright and setup takedowns(IE vs Mark Munoz). I don't see him using the same gameplan as he used versus romero as that gameplan was to make Yoel work because he had suspect cardio. He'll use a more technical approach against kelvin as Kelvin likely has the cardio advantage.

I hope this is sarcasm that flew over my head lol

LOL, Ofc I was joking, but Barberena is legit tho.

damn muricans defending "the all american"
 
This pretty much sums it up for me. The only thing I'd add:
If/when Gastelum ends up in the bad positions that he did against Magny, can Weidman take advantage and grab a sub or land some big gnp? Possibly

But like @Roads55 is saying, and others have said as well, it's unlikely Chris gets finished early and it's pretty likely he wins the first round or 2, so betting Chris pre-fight and looking to live bet Gastelum is the way to go here IMO.

That was how I planned to play it as well. Waiting for Gas to get bet up, then I will prebet Weidman as a dog and LB Gas if Chris doesn't finish early.
 
That was how I planned to play it as well. Waiting for Gas to get bet up, then I will prebet Weidman as a dog and LB Gas if Chris doesn't finish early.

I mentioned this earlier in the thread, but Weidman NSC is +155. That way you'll get your initial stake back if Gastelum ends up winning by dec.
 
I mentioned this earlier in the thread, but Weidman NSC is +155. That way you'll get your initial stake back if Gastelum ends up winning by dec.

That may be a thought. Would suck to get middled should Weidman somehow win a decision after Lbing Gas and not having his ML prebet to fall back on to even out loses.
 
Alessio Di Chirico injured, out of bout agaist Natal. LFA champ Eryk (are you kidding me?) Anders to step in for a short notice UFC debut. Fade city?
 
I like The Chris here. Surprised to see he's a dog against Gastelum who I consider to be unproven at the top level. Not to mention that he has a huge size advantage.
Size advantage against a known lay and prayer in Tim Kennedy looked ridiculous and Kelvin got away with it
 
Anyone think Elizeu Zalesk opens up as a fav?
 
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