UFN 113 - Ponzinibbio vs Nelson - Scotland

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When was the last time a fight was +600 to go to a 3 round decision?

Rountree Dec is also +1351...

I already have u1.5 -150 and rountree +100 etc.. I alrdy have rountree rd1 in a buttload of round robins..

But these #'s are pretty tempting...
 
long term study on closing odds on betfair found the markets to be v accurate. over large samples dogs win at the right rate as do favorites. so over a large sample a +400 or a -400 will be right. over a sample size of 1 they can be wrong. looking at trends of favorites or dogs winning is like looking for patterns on roulette. if a chart is showing favorites are best to bet this year then obviously the sample size is too small to be accurate
 
We've been over this stuff enough.

Anyone who doesn't believe in math/probabilities can't be reasoned with.
 
Is the future already determined? I believe not. I believe the outcome of a fight sits in a quantum state until the result is known. Thus I made a bet on Nelson because I thought his line had value. But I would have done a bet on Ponzinibbio if I thought his line had value (i.e. anything from 3.50 in his case for me).

One who does not believe in non-predetermined outcomes, one who believes there is one and only one possible outcome, these people would bet in a different way ("Nelson will win so no matter what Ponzinibbio line is I will never hit that").

Maybe this sums it up.
None of the approaches necessarily results in a winning or losing strategy, and both have pros and cons.
 
tough FOTN choices today. taking tiny stabs at seery-pantoja +750 (seery brings it even when outmatched and it's his retirement fight) & henry-teymur +950 (henry one of the scot's on the card and i think it's gonna be a banger)

would've maybe taken a shot on jojo-calv, but jojo missed weight. i guess they could give it to them and give calvillo the full 100k, but meh
 
When was the last time a fight was +600 to go to a 3 round decision?

Rountree Dec is also +1351...

I already have u1.5 -150 and rountree +100 etc.. I alrdy have rountree rd1 in a buttload of round robins..

But these #'s are pretty tempting...

Yeah I threw Roundtree dec in a tiny RR hail mary with 3 other really unlikely decisions. Like, $5 investment and if somehow all 4 hit pays over $3k. Roundtree dec, Janes dec, Calderwood dec, Gunnar dec.

Ya never know LOL...
 
Yeah I threw Roundtree dec in a tiny RR hail mary with 3 other really unlikely decisions. Like, $5 investment and if somehow all 4 hit pays over $3k. Roundtree dec, Janes dec, Calderwood dec, Gunnar dec.

Ya never know LOL...

oh i have a few of those types of things, lol. calvillo rd 3, henry rd 3, smith rd 3, etc lol.
 
tough FOTN choices today. taking tiny stabs at seery-pantoja +750 (seery brings it even when outmatched and it's his retirement fight) & henry-teymur +950 (henry one of the scot's on the card and i think it's gonna be a banger)

would've maybe taken a shot on jojo-calv, but jojo missed weight. i guess they could give it to them and give calvillo the full 100k, but meh

I did Henry/Teymur too, but honestly kinda regret it. I don't really like any of the odds LOL. It's only .15u so whatever.
 
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