UFC 214 - Jones vs Cormier II - Anaheim

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The cut is in a really bad spot. If it starts bleeding, it will limit his vision significantly

Will be something to watch for live for sure. Although odds tend to get swayed live quite a bit by serious cuts.
 
Event props out. Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. Such lame lines imo. Maybe someone convince me of value. I wanted Knight/Lamas FOTN at solid odds, but it's only +500. Unless it opened higher and some of you beat me to it. Not even gonna bother, that line is trash.

Took small stabs at Woodley fastest KO at +800 and Manuwa +700. If Woodley wins, good chance he just lands a bomb early as Maia closes distance. Cyborg skews these, she's only +175. If we think Evinger hangs in for a bit, I think there's tiny value on these other two. Otherwise I'm seeing absolutely nothing.

was looking at cyborg +175 and twood +800, too, hehe. and lol @ cerrone fastest sub paying less than the straight sub prop we got! =D

agreed FOTN props suck. no bet yet. they will adjust them at some point today. will look at that point.
 
manuwa dec +700? not implausible. i also think jones sub is worth a shot at +600, cormier's chin makes him unfinishable via strikes and jones has been focussing on bjj on his time off.
 
was looking at cyborg +175 and twood +800, too, hehe. and lol @ cerrone fastest sub paying less than the straight sub prop we got! =D

agreed FOTN props suck. no bet yet. they will adjust them at some point today. will look at that point.

Yeah, I was gonna look at Knight/Lamas at +800 or better, Lawler/Cowboy at +700 or better. I'm gonna be gone all day. Will try to check my phone but I doubt either of these get to where I'd want them anyway. Oh well.
 
manuwa dec +700? not implausible. i also think jones sub is worth a shot at +600, cormier's chin makes him unfinishable via strikes and jones has been focussing on bjj on his time off.

I like that Manuwa line honestly. It's unlikely, but if it does go the distance most likely he's the one with more gas and finishing stronger.
 
Yes -5.5 is the combined scorecard victory (and obviously a finish covers it as well). If you think Jones wins a relatively clear dec or wins by stoppage, you save a lot of juice giving the -5.5.
Covers the stoppage too. Nice. Bout to get on that. Pretty good value
 
Knight it the kind of kid that will most likely fight harder/better once he sees some of his own blood.

If you could bottle his attitude/view on fighting into every guy on the roster, there would never ever be an event that was less than amazing. The UFC would have a lot more fans imo, and be way better overall.

Unfortunately I think it's just something you either have or you don't. There just aren't that many guys like Knight out there. Win or lose today, he's fast becoming one of my favorites. Not just currently, but since I started following MMA almost 20 years ago.

the blood will affect his vision if it were to open

julio caesar chavez went into the first de la hoya fight with a pre-existing cut, it broke open upon the first dlh punch and julio then proceeded to get his nose broken and the fight stopped in the fourth round.

admittingly, a lot of my decision to bet lamas is based upon knights cut. if the cut does not open and affect the outcome of the fight then i made a mistake.
 
RockstarZee pro MMA betting tips

5 units Jason Knight +105
2 units Cerrone KO/TKO +525
3 units Jones/Woodley/Manuwa +225
 
the blood will affect his vision if it were to open

julio caesar chavez went into the first de la hoya fight with a pre-existing cut, it broke open upon the first dlh punch and julio then proceeded to get his nose broken and the fight stopped in the fourth round.

admittingly, a lot of my decision to bet lamas is based upon knights cut. if the cut does not open and affect the outcome of the fight then i made a mistake.

Not necessarily (I guess it depends on odds you got). I lean slightly toward Knight but I like my Lamas dec bet at +230 as a good hedge. I think Knight is more likely to finish, but if Lamas gets his wrestling going and it goes to the cards, he can for sure win a decision.
 
Not necessarily (I guess it depends on odds you got). I lean slightly toward Knight but I like my Lamas dec bet at +230 as a good hedge. I think Knight is more likely to finish, but if Lamas gets his wrestling going and it goes to the cards, he can for sure win a decision.

i played lamas round two and three as well as his money line so im betting that the cut has not healed. iirc, chavez was one week before his fight with dlh but did not require stitches.

also consider the cut happened three weeks ago so knight also may have some timing issues in the first round as im assuming he has had zero sparring since then.
 
Gabe & Lou like DC, Woodley, over 1½ for Cyborg, Lawler, Knight. I'm against them on every play.

 
Love Jimi Manuwa Fastest KO prop at +700. Also like Maia Fastest Sub at +500 and Knight/Lamas FOTN at +700.
 
I'm officially on Eric Shelton. Think he's going to be too big and too athletic for Brooks.

By the way did you see him at the WI's. This kid has the worst case of little man syndrome I've ever seen! Jarred Brooks like a hybridized version of Joe Warren and Junie Browning LOL

Perhaps Brooks may win the first round, but after that I believe that Eric is going to take over in the latter stages of the fight with size, strength and technique. Eric is immensely underrated. He was good before TUF and already a champion on the regional circuit. However, he came in to TUF 24 seriously unheralded with not much expected from him. That said, he was a single judge away from fighting Demetrious Johnson for the title after almost upsetting a very good to Tim Elliot. I'm glad that that didn't happen because he needs time to develop.

Having said that, Shelton did very well against the frenetic wild man that is Timothy Elliot. Like mentioned above, Shelton was a single judge from getting that victory. Elliot is a highly athletic and superstrong flyweight with exceptional wrestling and scrambles. This is important because Brooks fights very similar to how Elliot fights, and Shelton has showed that he can fare extremely well vs. the style.

The biggest difference here between Brooks and Elliot is size. Indeedd Elliot is a bona fide 125 pound fighter who can compete successfully against 135 pound fighters. For his part, Brooks is probably the smallest 125 pound fighter in the UFC roster.

Shelton was good before TUF, fantastic during TUF and — like we've seen through the series history — he's improved leaps and bounds post TUF.

The one thing that concerns me is that Shelton is frustratingly apathetic. Then all the sudden he will up the athleticism and explode. He has to remain smart, but he also has to get the truck out of second gear. Make no mistake, Brooks is going to push a chaotic pace and Shelton is going to have to match it. There will be lots of opportunities for Shelton to demonstrate why Brooks is not as good as he thinks it is.

This should be a close fight that goes to the wire. But Shelton is an underdog and has value. Still though it's a small play.

As a fan I'm excited as this should be a scramble fest from hell.
 
Oh I forgot to add that Brooks reminds me so much of a younger Urijah Faber — and I have a fight of his at the bottom — that perfectly encapsulates my thinking. The similarities jump off the screen.

While, Urijah had a bit better striking, it was still clumsily delivered and just clunky in its implementation. As with Uriah, I'm certain that Brooks will clean up I want out of this mess as he matures. However, at this point he's very vulnerable defensively. Look no further than Urijah's fight against former UFC lightweight stub Tyson Griffin. It was an absolute war, and all of the sudden Tyson uncorks a right-hand that sleeps Urijah. Importantly, Tyson was never known for his striking power — like at all. It was just that Urijah was so vulnerable to getting clipped due to his chaotic and unkempt striking fundamentals.

that defense of Lee he left himself vulnerable.

This was also the case when Urijah fought Mike Brown. Again, Mike Brown was never known to be a knockout artist, but Urijah was wild — like Brooks is — and his attempting a spinning elbow allowed Brown to hand out a free nap and take away his belt in the process.

So even if Shelton doesn't have lead in his fists, he can take advantage of a chaotic Brooks and use his momentum against him as he catches him flush with something coming in.

The unique footwork and explosive bursts into Brooks' techniques are what is most similar to TCK. As are his entries into the TD and subsequent guard passes and ensuing submission attempts. The transitions are fluid once he hits the ground, but he fought also often gets over aggressive and gives up position for submission.

This is a fight from an early Brooks.I'm not sure why this isn't on his record, but it illustrates what I am talking about in relation to Urijah . Keep in mind the guy he's fighting is 0-2 and it was in 2013. But you could see the athleticism and potential immediately.

 
Love Jimi Manuwa Fastest KO prop at +700. Also like Maia Fastest Sub at +500 and Knight/Lamas FOTN at +700.

Thanks for the update on movement on Lamas/Knight. I decided +700 was good enough for me.
 
Oh I forgot to add that Brooks reminds me so much of a younger Urijah Faber — and I have a fight of his at the bottom — that perfectly encapsulates my thinking. The similarities jump off the screen.

While, Urijah had a bit better striking, it was still clumsily delivered and just clunky in its implementation. As with Uriah, I'm certain that Brooks will clean up I want out of this mess as he matures. However, at this point he's very vulnerable defensively. Look no further than Urijah's fight against former UFC lightweight stub Tyson Griffin. It was an absolute war, and all of the sudden Tyson uncorks a right-hand that sleeps Urijah. Importantly, Tyson was never known for his striking power — like at all. It was just that Urijah was so vulnerable to getting clipped due to his chaotic and unkempt striking fundamentals.

that defense of Lee he left himself vulnerable.

This was also the case when Urijah fought Mike Brown. Again, Mike Brown was never known to be a knockout artist, but Urijah was wild — like Brooks is — and his attempting a spinning elbow allowed Brown to hand out a free nap and take away his belt in the process.

So even if Shelton doesn't have lead in his fists, he can take advantage of a chaotic Brooks and use his momentum against him as he catches him flush with something coming in.

The unique footwork and explosive bursts into Brooks' techniques are what is most similar to TCK. As are his entries into the TD and subsequent guard passes and ensuing submission attempts. The transitions are fluid once he hits the ground, but he fought also often gets over aggressive and gives up position for submission.

This is a fight from an early Brooks.I'm not sure why this isn't on his record, but it illustrates what I am talking about in relation to Urijah . Keep in mind the guy he's fighting is 0-2 and it was in 2013. But you could see the athleticism and potential immediately.




The fight is listed under his amateur bouts on MixedMartialArts.com
 
all week man

I've not really followed him this week (Jones that is) what has he been doing that's awkward?… I know he's been acting weird in a few interviews — where he looks almost… ummm...dare I say… High?

What other actions do you think he's been awkward in? In a brief summary.

I'll try to go back and watch some interviews.

But Robbie looks like he doesn't even want to be here. I just wonder how much the Matt Hughes situation has affected him. They have been best friends since like 1998 or something. It must be devastating. Matt is like Robbie's big brother
 
Looking at PotN odds, how do you guys like Maia +600 and Jimi +900?

With it being a title fight the winner gets it a lot anyway, especially if via finish. Maia won't KO Woodley and I don't see him winning a decision given his age/so-so cardio and it being a short training camp. If he wins, I think about 80% chance of it is via sub. I essentially see it as getting the Maia sub prop as +600 instead of +250.

Manuwa one is more the fact I see it being a brawl and him just landing on Volkan consistently until he puts him out. He's won it with finishes in his last 2 so maybe again in a fight he has a good chance of getting a KO in?

It seems to be an award where you need a finish to get it, or a big upset. I think Jones wins a hard fought decision rather than stopping DC, so doubt he gets it, more likely win FotN.

It's likely a toss up of DC/Jones, Lamas/Knight and maybe Lawler/Cerrone for FotN but I do think PotN is a bit more open and usually requires a finish.
 

I almost forgot to mention what I thought when I seen Ortegas man bun. Two words that should be banned from our entire lexicon..

This is Ortega's future if he continues killing himself to hit 145. That man bun is going to look like Thoros from Game of Thrones fame LOL.

Sr1OGgN.jpg


...."You think you’re fooling anyone with that ‘top knot?’ Bald cunt.”

– The Hound
 
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