UFC 216 - Ferguson vs Lee - Vegas

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What about fighting 2 rounds vs Ferguson?

Lee's past four fights have ended in round 1 or 2 and Ferguson is a notoriously slow starter. The way I see Lee winning is tagging Tony early like Lando or Trujillo did, and then having the submission skills to finish on the ground.

Also took Lee sub +569, rd 1 +1178, rd 2 +1647, rd 3 +2377. Only bet a little on +221, I'm not dripping with confidence here.
 
I hadn't bet him yet but just threw a little action on +221. He didn't look fucked up or anything, just came up a pound short and had to give it a second try. Maybe it hurts his odds a little bit but he has almost 36 hours to recover and get back to full strength so I think it will be fine.

I hear ya I just think a lot of times these big weight cuts zap these guys energies and they come out flat. Not saying lee can't catch him early but ferguson is a tough guy to put away and this weight cut puts lee at a big disadvantage in the later rounds.
 
I think Lee Rd 1 is the best bet there. By the second rd Ferguson will be getting his groove. Even in past fights where he had trouble in the first he was back on track by the second or end of the first.
 
I hear ya I just think a lot of times these big weight cuts zap these guys energies and they come out flat. Not saying lee can't catch him early but ferguson is a tough guy to put away and this weight cut puts lee at a big disadvantage in the later rounds.

Double edge sword also. If Lee goes after him in the first but doesn't get a stop he will just sap that energy
 
harris KO is -147 btw. ITD is -195

i don't exactly see harris getting his first career sub... just sayin...

Probably just talk but in a recent interview Walt said he has a slick sub game and strong top control, said he might go for a TD
 
Probably just talk but in a recent interview Walt said he has a slick sub game and strong top control, said he might go for a TD

I'm not betting +1200 Walt sub so I'll feel doubly dumb!
 
Not being 100% fighting Ferg is always going to be a difficult ask. FFS, you're going against a man with the athleticism of an Anthony Pettis, the conditioning of a Nick Diaz and the crazy as fuck mentality and granite chin of a Diego Sanchez. Additionally, he's a D1 wrestler with a black belt with his hands and his BJJ. He is just one of those guys that is just a nightmare to fight. The type of guy that when Sean Shelby mentions his name your cell phone abruptly loses service lol.
 
Ferg itd -140 now, makes more sense to bet -5.5 at -160. There's a chance Ferg is more systematic in how he attacks Lee (like he did vs RDA) and he ends up winning a clear decision. Yeah, I still think he finishes, but with odds where they are his pt spread makes way more sense.
 
Ferg itd -140 now, makes more sense to bet -5.5 at -160. There's a chance Ferg is more systematic in how he attacks Lee (like he did vs RDA) and he ends up winning a clear decision. Yeah, I still think he finishes, but with odds where they are his pt spread makes way more sense.

I agree completely I did a parlay of ferg points and demetrius points at -109
 
I'm sure I am reaching here, but put 1u on Lee KO/TKO at +1033.
 
Is it just me or did Werdum look like shit?

slightly sub par for him. wasn't werdum-JDS shape, but still not great.

finally decided on a way to play this fight: small.

0.35u werdum sub +285 and 0.15u fight ends in RD3 +700
 
Not being 100% fighting Ferg is always going to be a difficult ask. FFS, you're going against a man with the athleticism of an Anthony Pettis, the conditioning of a Nick Diaz and the crazy as fuck mentality and granite chin of a Diego Sanchez. Additionally, he's a D1 wrestler with a black belt with his hands and his BJJ. He is just one of those guys that is just a nightmare to fight. The type of guy that when Sean Shelby mentions his name your cell phone abruptly loses service lol.
Not a D1 wrestler and not a BB, but yeah Ferguson is a beast.
 
Not a D1 wrestler, but yeah Ferguson is a beast.

Juco National champ though right?

I think his MMA wrestling is underrated too because he ends up on bottom at times due to rolling for leglocks and other crazy entrances he uses. He's so confident in his guard he just doesn't care. But when he wants to show his wrestling chops, he's a legit top tier MMA wrestler. Maybe not with traditional TD's, but his counter wrestling is great. And his front headlock (and snapdown) might be the best in MMA.
 
I'm really not worried about Tony being out wrestled for a large amount of time. Especially with the weight cut
 
No, he didn't wrestle JUCO. He was a club wrestler.

Ahh okay that's it. I'm not sure how a national champ club wrestler would stack up against a juco national champ. Neither on scholarship or anything, I can't imagine there's a huge difference? Anyway, Ferg has obviously proven to be plenty athletic enough.
 
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