UFC 216 - Ferguson vs Lee - Vegas

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I'm just worried about Werdum's physical condition. I mean, he is coming into the fight at his heaviest weight in at least a decade and is 40 now. Around 2010 in the middle of the strikeforce run and then entering back into the UFC, he quickly blossomed into a completely different fighter. Specifically, he was much more fit and athletic. Furthermore, his striking had progressed immensely. It really seemed like he turned this corner after the second Reem fight. Which is understandable since he was fighting I juiced out monster I'm probably thought that has all the way to remain competitive is to take his loan gummy bear juice. I mean, he couldn't budge let alone take Reem down in that fight. Every time he went for a TD it was like he was hitting a brick wall.

Of course there is no proof — and I don't like making accusations — but with his physical change and his sudden athletic enhancement, damnit if there's not a fucking forest fire worth of smoke LOL

Add in to the mix thathe was training out of nova uniao and it just exacerbates my suspicions. The massive improvements came when nova uniao was pumping out more champions and top contenders than the Kronk Gym in the 80s. From Jacare and RDA to Aldo to Barao.... Then them plunging post USADA means you have to be utterly the most naïve person on the planet not to have suspicions. Additionally, his aesthetic alterations came before USADA and subsequently plummeted afterwards. Again more smoke.

A So you just have to wonder which Fabricio we are going to be getting. Will it be the Fabricio who smoked Cain in Mexico or the Fabricio who looked like hot garbage against Travis Browne and Reem last two outings?

I still think he beats Derrick Lewis regardless, but if we are to get 70% of prime Werdum it would be a straight wash. Where Fabricio gets the take some down, passes guard like a hot knife through butter then grabs a limb and as whatever he wants with it. Now it's going to be a bit closer perhaps?

The problem for Black Beast is that he's at his best when he's getting top position and going Donkey Kong and smashing dudes from that spot. Does he really want to mess with Werdum's guard? it's HW, so yeah BB could land something big standing too, but the Travis Browne that basically couldn't touch Werdum over a full FORTY MINUTES of fighting damn near had BB out in their fight before Browne gassed and got stopped.

So basically, yeah, Werdum might have fallen off. Maybe even to a significant degree. And maybe it's due to USADA related reasons. Maybe. But even so, he almost stopped Overeem in rd 3 in his last fight. He's way more skilled than BB. And the fact he has the best HW guard in the history of MMA probably neutralzes BB's best weapon.
 
I've been debating with myself how much stock to put into Lee's issues with the cut. Sometimes scales are just calibrated a little differently which can account for some of it. But a couple things are leading me to believe it's very likely going to be a factor, and that Lee really might see some negative physical affects from it.

First, the fact he was spotted leaning on his trainer as they walked through a hallway (I think on the way to cutting the extra lb). That's not just "mistiming" your cut. That's you being absolutely drained by it, esp when everyone is talking about how awful you look.

Second, him tweeting "I'll die 'bout this shit" or whatever. Yeah, so if it was just "no big deal" and you weren't worried about any of it, you don't tweet that.

I'm adding to my Ferg -5.5 at -160. I really am not sure Lee is gonna have more than 10 minutes of real energy given the pace that Ferg likely pushes. Will Lee be dangerous early? Yeah. But after that it's easy to see him fading...badly.
 
The problem for Black Beast is that he's at his best when he's getting top position and going Donkey Kong and smashing dudes from that spot. Does he really want to mess with Werdum's guard? it's HW, so yeah BB could land something big standing too, but the Travis Browne that basically couldn't touch Werdum over a full FORTY MINUTES of fighting damn near had BB out in their fight before Browne gassed and got stopped.

So basically, yeah, Werdum might have fallen off. Maybe even to a significant degree. And maybe it's due to USADA related reasons. Maybe. But even so, he almost stopped Overeem in rd 3 in his last fight. He's way more skilled than BB. And the fact he has the best HW guard in the history of MMA probably neutralzes BB's best weapon.

Right on.

I think my favorite plays of this card are Cody +145 and Ferg/Lee o2.5 –115 and I think I'll put 3.00 unit on both.
 
Right on.

I think my favorite plays of this card are Cody +145 and Ferg/Lee o2.5 –115 and I think I'll put 3.00 unit on both.

With you on Cody for sure. I think I like Ferg/Lee o2.5 too at close to evens. My issue is I'm already big on Ferg itd and -5.5, and if Lee wins it's most likely early. So if I take the o2.5 and Lee somehow does finish Ferg early, I'm really fucked LOL.
 
I'm big on Ferguson but Lee sub +704, Lee rd1 +1325 and even Lee NSC +350 are all nice lines IMO. I'm taking sub and round 1 small as hedges to my Ferg ML bet.
 
Harris Fastest KO +400 is awesome
Yeah that's nice, but +325 now.

I'm actually gonna hit Werdum fastest KO at +1200. Browne damn near had BB out in rd 1, Werdum capable of it too.
 
I could be way off, but I don’t think werdum will do much more than jabs and kicks and win my decision. I don’t think he will want to get in range too much to chance getting clipped by Lewis. As of now I have no bet but not werdum itd would be it if I decide to bet this one.

If lee slows down at all he will get finished. The pace that ferg sets and the weigh cut almost makes this a certainty. Lee has 1 maybe 2 rounds to finish a very durable ferg or shit goes south fast. Still no bet for me on this but ferg itd and or -5.5 with lee by sub or round 1 as small hedge.
 
I could be way off, but I don’t think werdum will do much more than jabs and kicks and win my decision. I don’t think he will want to get in range too much to chance getting clipped by Lewis. As of now I have no bet but not werdum itd would be it if I decide to bet this one.

If lee slows down at all he will get finished. The pace that ferg sets and the weigh cut almost makes this a certainty. Lee has 1 maybe 2 rounds to finish a very durable ferg or shit goes south fast. Still no bet for me on this but ferg itd and or -5.5 with lee by sub or round 1 as small hedge.

I will be interested to see what Werdum does. You could be right, but after inactivity cost him in his last fight, he might be willing to engage more. Plus BB isn't the striker Overeem is. And if BB starts to tire, Werdum could start teeing off. (Although Werdum's weight has me a little concerned about his cardio too...)
 
I think werdums going to front teep him 3 or 4 times to the tummy and BB is gonna already be hurt to the body with his back to the cage looking very labored. Theres no reason werdum dont win this. If at this point in his career he cant get past a fighter like BB its time to hang it up
 
Who is going to be the underdog that nobody talked about that wins tonight? Moraga?
 
I'm big on Ferguson but Lee sub +704, Lee rd1 +1325 and even Lee NSC +350 are all nice lines IMO. I'm taking sub and round 1 small as hedges to my Ferg ML bet.

God, such better prices than i got on Lee sub and lee rd1. I like
 
I would never bet Moraga ML, but I took a stab at Moraga sub +1600

Bibulatov is really aggressive and Moraga is probably the best grappler he has faced. I could see his aggressive ways getting into him a bad position where Moraga can finish. Short of that outcome, this fight is Bibs all the way.

Godbeer I'm not touching. Just have some action on u1.5 bc I think Walt will make quick work of him.
 
Haven't seen anyone really on godbeer moraga, hehe. Or Borg..

I'm on Moraga. Count me in on his DEC line ar +800

Another thing: I'm not on Godbeer, but Harris surely has problems on being hit. I have a small fodder play at U1.5 for the fight just in case.
 
Anyone else think that there is some value in fight doesn't go the distance for Duquesnoy/Stamman?
 
Yeah. I'm on the under. One Duquesnoy elbow can finish the fight at any time, and Cody has a chance of finishing as well. I think it should be a fave to finish ITD
 
I'm on a bunch of dogs small and werdum.

Lee, borg, stamman, Beltran and maybe some others.
 
Haven't seen anyone really on godbeer moraga, hehe. Or Borg..

I'm likely going to be on Moraga and Borg very small, still thinking how I want to play them though.
 
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