Have had to put capping and betting on the back burner lately. It sucks, I miss it, but dealing with a terminally ill family member when you are POA and dealing with one issue after another just takes way more time than I ever imagined it could. I basically skipped 2 events compeletely, can't remember the last time I did that. I've spent little time on this card too, and my action pre fight will reflect that. For what it's worth, my thoughts on some fights based on the limited research I've done:
Cyborg most likely stops Holm at some point. I think Holly will do what she does, circle away, avoid exchanges, try to potshot Cris. At some point though she's gonna have to get some respect from Cyborg, and I don't think she can. I think Cyborg -5.5 still has value at -240. I also like a small stab at Cyborg sub at +975.
I like Barboza at these odds. I think he has a very realistic shot to win (as it seems a lot of the regs here do--not surprised, I kinda figured he'd get some love here as a pretty big dog). This fight is stylistically of course the easiest to break down. Grappler vs striker, pretty simple. If Barb can keep it standing for long enough stretches, he'll win. If he can't, he'll lose.
I know some people like Carla based on odds, but she's flakey to me. I got burned betting her vs Markos pretty badly. That was a fight where I really think Carla was the more skilled fighter, but her confidence (or lack of it) showed so much. In this fight, I think she's the less skilled fighter. And Cavillo oozes confidence. I like Cavillo by sub, rd 2 or 3.
Hooker is gonna give Diakiese all he can handle. I'm not sure who wins, but I think this will be close. Hooker +3.5 at-145 is the bet here imo. Or fight goes distance at -150. I'm on both.
I don't know what to make of Magny/Condit. Too many question marks, I'll just watch it and enjoy it and look for good LB opportunities.
Roundtree probably blasts Olek early, but no value at all. Unless you are the guy who arbed the rd 1 props for a ton of units. Amazing work for free $ there.
I think Glenn will be very competitive vs Jury. Jury probably wins, but Glenn +3.5 is tempting. I just wish it was cheaper. Glenn usually fights for your money if nothing else.
Vettori is too expensive, and so is his NSC line which is what I was figuring I'd be on. Pass, will just LB.
I like Smolka a lot here. +195 is great value. I think he can win some scrambles and get himself into good positions in the grappling game as long as he isn't satisfied just sub hunting off his back. I'm gonna believe him in that he's learned that lesson. I wouldn't be him at evens or anything, but at 2-1 he's absolutely worth a bet.
I know nothing about De La Rosa so I'm not even gonna pretend to try to cap this fight. Nor will I think about betting it.
Hope everyone had a great holiday and makes some $ tonight.