UFC 221 - Rockhold vs Romero - Australia

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Does it matter? You guys try way too hard to read into signals that are impossible to read.

He missed weight, and then only dropped 0.3 pounds in 2 hours. This is the real signal. He failed at cutting weight, which indicates some malfunction in his body that hurt his odds of winning the fight.

Trying to read the tea leaves of Luke's interview or Yoel walking on the stairs is impossible. Just bet on the guy who cut weight successfully, and bet against the guy who didn't.
Wasn't it you who was bashing people for betting on Alvarez vs Gaethje, basically calling him garbage? Yeah, I'm not gonna listen to anything you have to say lol
 
Does it matter? You guys try way too hard to read into signals that are impossible to read.

He missed weight, and then only dropped 0.3 pounds in 2 hours. This is the real signal. He failed at cutting weight, which indicates some malfunction in his body that hurt his odds of winning the fight.

Trying to read the tea leaves of Luke's interview or Yoel walking on the stairs is impossible. Just bet on the guy who cut weight successfully, and bet against the guy who didn't.

Your second paragraph is reading tea leaves, dude.
 
Or you the tea leaves say he didn’t try to make weight and will win because it’s the new trend

He spent 2 extra hours trying to make weight. The purse is bigger than average and has interim label.

Also it's not early weigh ins anymore, so bad weight cuts should hurt more.

Of course I already thought Luke would win anyway, this is just gravy. But now I realllllyyy feel comfy betting a ton on Luke.
 
Wasn't it you who was bashing people for betting on Alvarez vs Gaethje, basically calling him garbage? Yeah, I'm not gonna listen to anything you have to say lol

Damn sick burn. I made a losing bet once, therefore being a millionaire from gambling is completely negated lols.
 
He spent 2 extra hours trying to make weight. The purse is bigger than average and has interim label.

Also it's not early weigh ins anymore, so bad weight cuts should hurt more.

Of course I already thought Luke would win anyway, this is just gravy. But now I realllllyyy feel comfy betting a ton on Luke.

I would never bet a ton vs Yoel.
 
Damn sick burn. I made a losing bet once, therefore being a millionaire from gambling is completely negated lols.
The point i was trying to make was you werent listening to what anyone ITT had to say regarding that fight when CLEARLY EA was the right side as a moderate dog. You create a narrative in your mind and fail to look at a fight objectively. This doesn't really hurt Romero's chance all that much, he's still got his paths to victory. I dont think anyone here thinks he was going to out-cardio Luke. But conversely, have we ever seen Luke this drained? You conveniently want to overlook that lol
 
Even if Yoel is just depleted and not injured, I couldn't resist betting Luke prefight at -165 risking $330 to win $200.
 
He spent 2 extra hours trying to make weight. The purse is bigger than average and has interim label.

Also it's not early weigh ins anymore, so bad weight cuts should hurt more.

Of course I already thought Luke would win anyway, this is just gravy. But now I realllllyyy feel comfy betting a ton on Luke.
How hard do you think he really tried? What did he end up cutting? .3lbs? All that did was make him more money cause he was under 188.
 
What's the significance of being under 188?
According to the FS1 broadcast, less than three pounds over the limit meant he only gives up 20% of his purse, while more than 3 pounds over the 185 pound championship limit meant he has to give up 30% of his purse.
 
The point i was trying to make was you werent listening to what anyone ITT had to say regarding that fight when CLEARLY EA was the right side as a moderate dog. You create a narrative in your mind and fail to look at a fight objectively. This doesn't really hurt Romero's chance all that much, he's still got his paths to victory. I dont think anyone here thinks he was going to out-cardio Luke. But conversely, have we ever seen Luke this drained? You conveniently want to overlook that lol

Have we ever seen Luke interviewed directly after a weight cut?
 
According to the FS1 broadcast, less than three pounds over the limit meant he only gives up 20% of his purse, while more than 3 pounds over the 185 pound championship limit meant he has to give up 30% of his purse.

This suggests some chance that he didn't try.

But still you'd think he'd at least lose 0.5 pound to be safe if that's ~$100k salary swing. Gotta be concerned that he has some ailment that his old body is coping poorly with. Even if it's not certain, the possbility has significant bearing on the odds of the fight.
 
I love the KO/TKO event props on 5Dimes, from +4½ on up for this card as well as the unders at + money for fight does not go distance.
 
How hard do you think he really tried? What did he end up cutting? .3lbs? All that did was make him more money cause he was under 188.
Man you got it. Romero is a cheat lol. Dude loses just a tiny bit of weight enough to avoid the extra 10% penalty. I would be 2x pissed off if i'm Rockhold right now lol. I would demand the UFC to pay me 3x to go thru with the fight or the fight is off lol. But that's why Luke is a fighter and i'm not. It's a shame cause Luke looked drained at the weigh in while Romero did not look drain at all. This is an advantage for Romero the same way it was an advantage for Prazeres last week. Gotta feel bad for Luke tho. His chin will not hold if Romero lands a good shot.
 
Man you got it. Romero is a cheat lol. Dude loses just a tiny bit of weight enough to avoid the extra 10% penalty. I would be 2x pissed off if i'm Rockhold right now lol. I would demand the UFC to pay me 3x to go thru with the fight or the fight is off lol. But that's why Luke is a fighter and i'm not. It's a shame cause Luke looked drained at the weigh in while Romero did not look drain at all. This is an advantage for Romero the same way it was an advantage for Prazeres last week. Gotta feel bad for Luke tho. His chin will not hold if Romero lands a good shot.
Those three pounds almost seem trivial compared to their overall size, but maybe when they re-hydrate the difference multiplies in effect. Especially with such a short time to recover this card. Luke is much taller, he should not be out-muscled or oversized in any case more than it would have been otherwise.
 
here are my UFC 221 bets- all bets are for 50$
Abe wins by dec+159
Quinoez wins by dec+141
Hirota+123
Nguyen+102
Kennedy+185
Kim wins inside+211
Jingaling wins by Dec+240
Hunt+145
Romero+155

Last even I lost 79.50 here were my bets!!!!! each bet was also for 50
Here are my bets!!!!!
Figueiredo- Wins inside+292
Soto- wins by dec +245
Vianna- WIns inside+104
Means- WIns inside+249
Smith+240
Vera- WIns by dec+216
Golm-Wins inside+112
Prazzeres- WIns by dec+145
Schevenko-Wins by dec+230
Anders- Wins by Dec+650
 
here are my UFC 221 bets- all bets are for 50$
Abe wins by dec+159
Quinoez wins by dec+141
Hirota+123
Nguyen+102
Kennedy+185
Kim wins inside+211
Jingaling wins by Dec+240
Hunt+145
Romero+155

Last even I lost 79.50 here were my bets!!!!! each bet was also for 50
Here are my bets!!!!!
Figueiredo- Wins inside+292
Soto- wins by dec +245
Vianna- WIns inside+104
Means- WIns inside+249
Smith+240
Vera- WIns by dec+216
Golm-Wins inside+112
Prazzeres- WIns by dec+145
Schevenko-Wins by dec+230
Anders- Wins by Dec+650

You bet way too many decisions for guys that have good odds of finishing. Pretty much all of your decision bets would be better if you just took ML instead.
 
You bet way too many decisions for guys that have good odds of finishing. Pretty much all of your decision bets would be better if you just took ML instead.

I dont know how much you guys normally bet per fight but it ranges for me depending on how much i got in my account which is usually 50 per fight so not a lot. Betting for me is something I enjoy yes I would like to win but if i lose no big deal, Its rare for me to bet a -150 or higer in anything. and in mma betting I wont ever bet the fav straight up.
 
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Blaydes DEC is 3.50? Why should i play his ML if i think he will win when he can not knock out the Super Samoan? Outwrestling Hunt is his most possible path to the victory here. Taking this with 0.5u
 
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