UFC 221 - Rockhold vs Romero - Australia

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Couple other very small stabs I'm taking:

Ishihara dec +350. I think the fight will be close and go to the cards. Quinonez won't stop coming, but I think Ishi can have some early success. Maybe enough to get the nod on the cards.

Formiga KO/TKO +1350. I know, I know, he has ZERO wins by KO or TKO in 25 fights (20 wins). BUT, 5 of Ben's 6 losses are by KO or TKO. And Ben showed vs Smolka that if he gets his back taken, he's willing to roll and get mounted as opposed to giving up the RNC. Yeah, if Formiga wins itd the sub is more likely. A lot more likely. But imo not 4 times as likely. Not against this opponent anyway.

Matthews sub +725. People got this at a much better line I think, kinda sucks for me. This is just my hedge on all my Li action. Matthews is really aggressive with his grappling. I think if he wins, it's most likely by snatching a sub.

Tuivasa dec +724 and fight goes distance +350. If (and it's a huge "if" I know) Tuivasa doesn't get Asker out of there early, this could be two gassed HW's that don't have enough left in the tank to finish each other. We've seen it before enough times...
 
ME is still 5 rounds, right?
Yes, it's still a title fight for Luke and all title fights are 5 rounds, also nearly all main events are 5 rounds unless it's on super short notice. Last main event that was 3 rounds was Smolka vs Holohan after Duffy/Poirier fell through the week of the fight.
 
Yes, it's still a title fight for Luke and all title fights are 5 rounds, also nearly all main events are 5 rounds unless it's on super short notice. Last main event that was 3 rounds was Smolka vs Holohan after Duffy/Poirier fell through the week of the fight.
Good to know, thanks for dropping that knowledge
 
Like what’s seems to be everyone else, I favor Li here. With that said I’m playing Matthews NSC +280, ITD +643 and KO +2650 all small. Li’s defense is not exactly his best attribute and 4 of Matthews 5 UFC wins have been by stoppage. I have to take the shot at these prices.
 
Anyone feel strongly or confident in Abe/Jumeau and Brown/Kim? No idea what to do on those yet.

Abe all day, too fast and sharp on the feet and his judo>Jumeaus shitty wrestling
 
I love the KO/TKO event props on 5Dimes, from +4½ on up for this card as well as the unders at + money for fight does not go distance.

Love it, thanks for pointing out. Played all the way from 4.5 up as well.
 
You pretty much HAVE to bet that line. Even if you are REALLY confident Luke wins, that line is just way, WAY off. Luke's boxing just isn't very good. At kicking range he's a solid striker, but when he's crowded he freezes up and is WAY too hittable. Like @iGnP said, Yoel isn't necessarily the guy that rushes in for the immediate kill, but with his power there's a very real chance he catches Luke with something early, even if he's not blitzing him looking for the quick finish.

Maybe it was ring rust vs Branch. Maybe. But for those who are just SOOOOO confident in Luke, how the hell does the early part of that fight not give you pause? Branch is a solid fighter, and Luke survived and came back for a nice win. But if that's someone who hits like Yoel tagging him, Luke no way survives that. Bisping isn't a big puncher and Luke couldn't handle getting hit clean by him either.

This is a fight where there are VERY clear paths to victory for both guys AND where both guys have glaring weaknesses. Yoel is easily the more explosive, powerful guy who can finish fights quickly either standing or with gnp. His wrestling speaks for itself, although in MMA he's been less inclined to try to take guys down than would be expected. In this fight, it's his TDD that might be key. But he (depending on the pace of the fight) has 10-15 minutes worth of cardio, tops. Luke has great kicks, and is a beast top control grappler who is impossible to deal with if he gets guys on their backs. But his boxing is bad (at least if he's forced to fight in close quarters). He doesn't seem to react the best to getting hit (at least recently). Essentially, he doesn't do well with being pressured.

So, my view is that in a fight that really could go either way, bet the dog. If I was going to be home to watch this, I'd be of course looking to live bet Luke after rd 2 depending on what the fight looked like and how much energy Yoel was forced to expend early. But in this spot, making a big bet and paying juice on Luke? Man, I don't get it. Because I can't watch this card live and have no chance to live bet, I am keeping all my action pretty small outside a decent sized bet on Li.
Agreed I’d bet that if available.
 
Hunt NSC -104

I think that Hunt vs Blaydes will go to decision.
Blaydes is hittable, but he has a rock solid chin and Hunt will play it safe because he will be scared of the takedown.
The over 1.5 rounds at -140 had insane value imo.
 
I think that Hunt vs Blaydes will go to decision.
Blaydes is hittable, but he has a rock solid chin and Hunt will play it safe because he will be scared of the takedown.
The over 1.5 rounds at -140 had insane value imo.

I agree with all of that. I do think Hunt is much more likely to get a stoppage though. I’m also on Hunt dec +700.
 
Quick tip for europeans. To play NSC, as we don't have that type of prop, you could do the following, as in the example. - Hirota NSC
1u on Hirota-Pearson to go to distance to get 1.45u
0.45u on Hirota ITD to get 2.7u

This way, if Hirota gets it itd, you win 1.25u profit, if it goes to distance, you get the money back -> the NSC prop.
Hirota NSC gets the odds of 1.86, which I love..
 
Hunt Dec popped to +875.. errr now +775.. k taking some, too. Have a tiny bet on that and blaydes Dec +200 both.. fookin limits

Also got some ishi dec +4xx.. it opened +5xx.. and now sitting +290.. foooooookin limits!!!

Brown dec , jumeau Dec, hirota Dec all stabbed , too, at openers


I get why you hate the early stoppages lol
 
0.3u Wilkinson itd +900. Wow, that's crazy. I get it, Adesanya is a great kickboxer. But what happens if Wilkinson gets the TD? Moreover, Adesanya weighed in at 183, did not look like he cut any weight at all...

I think we might have to much hype in here!
 
0.3u Wilkinson itd +900. Wow, that's crazy. I get it, Adesanya is a great kickboxer. But what happens if Wilkinson gets the TD? Moreover, Adesanya weighed in at 183, did not look like he cut any weight at all...

I think we might have to much hype in here!
he needs to go 170. mentioned in a vid he had to work to get this big. quit the weights
 
0.3u Wilkinson itd +900. Wow, that's crazy. I get it, Adesanya is a great kickboxer. But what happens if Wilkinson gets the TD? Moreover, Adesanya weighed in at 183, did not look like he cut any weight at all...

I think we might have to much hype in here!
I put some on it at +890 as well to complement or hedge my under 1½ and small Adesanya round 1 prop.
 
2 ufc's in a row with no FOTN props, weird.

saving us all $, probably!
 
Couple other very small stabs I'm taking:

Ishihara dec +350. I think the fight will be close and go to the cards. Quinonez won't stop coming, but I think Ishi can have some early success. Maybe enough to get the nod on the cards.

Formiga KO/TKO +1350. I know, I know, he has ZERO wins by KO or TKO in 25 fights (20 wins). BUT, 5 of Ben's 6 losses are by KO or TKO. And Ben showed vs Smolka that if he gets his back taken, he's willing to roll and get mounted as opposed to giving up the RNC. Yeah, if Formiga wins itd the sub is more likely. A lot more likely. But imo not 4 times as likely. Not against this opponent anyway.

Matthews sub +725. People got this at a much better line I think, kinda sucks for me. This is just my hedge on all my Li action. Matthews is really aggressive with his grappling. I think if he wins, it's most likely by snatching a sub.

Tuivasa dec +724 and fight goes distance +350. If (and it's a huge "if" I know) Tuivasa doesn't get Asker out of there early, this could be two gassed HW's that don't have enough left in the tank to finish each other. We've seen it before enough times...
Formiga by tko? I doubt it lol. Ben Nguyen has more tools to win this fight. Formiga about to get ktfo if he stands with Nguyen.
 
Formiga by tko? I doubt it lol. Ben Nguyen has more tools to win this fight. Formiga about to get ktfo if he stands with Nguyen.

Did you read why? I'm not betting it because I think he's gonna light him up standing LOL. I'm betting it because if he can get Ben down, there's a solid chance he takes Ben's back. If he does that, Ben has shown he'll roll and give up mount and get TKO'd instead of giving up his neck and getting subbed.

It's +1350. I'm not banking on it hitting obviously. I just see a path to where it could happen, and it has steep odds.
 
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