Cleveland Cavaliers +3 for 3u; +135 for 0.5u
So, you may be asking yourself why I am betting the overrated Cavs against a good team. Have I gone crazy? Maybe. Do I have an angle here? Definitely
The Cavaliers looked good the other night against the Pistons. Now, the Pistons have had their own share of issues since Blake Griffin came to town, but I think their success had a lot more to do with Nance replacing TT in the starting line up. TT is one of the WORST players in terms of plus minus and it’s not really shocking, considering he’s not good at anything and only clogs the lane for Lebron.
The Nuggets are also trying to incorporate Paul Milsap back into their line up after his extended absence due to injury. Since his return, Milsap has a net rating of -11 while the Nuggets are 2-2 straight up, 1-3 ATS w their only cover coming against the struggling Cavaliers (when Tristan was playing)
That’s the next point of confidence- the Cavaliers will be playing the Nuggets in revenge as they lost to them less than a week ago. With the line up change to the Cavaliers, it will be another wrinkle for the Nuggets to adjust to. Advantage: Cavs
The Nuggets also played last night. Tonight will be their second game of a back to back (unfortunately not a third game in four night situation) that could be a little exacerbated because the game tonight will be played in altitude in Denver. The Cavs obviously like to play at a high pace with a lot of shots, I think we could see tired legs in the Nuggets late in the game
Final point: I think this line is a little too inflated. These teams played less than a week ago in Cleveland and the Cavs were -4. They lost the game outright but it was definitely a competitive game, the Nuggets just happened to shoot about 55% from the 3 point line, and that definitely isn’t sustainable. Now the Cavs are +3 when they get the terrible TT out of their line up? Too many variables point to the Cavs being the right side here
If we had a bigger sample size with Nance in the starting line up, this would be a 5u play. That and the fact that the Cavs have been pretty crap this year ATS is keeping me from going more than 3.5u.