Re: Moicano vs Kattar
Kattar's bread and butter is his jab, which he snaps off beautifully with no telegraph. He was able to pick Burgos apart with it for the first round plus of their fight until Burgos adjusted by countering with his overhand right, inside leg kicks and left hooks to the body. Kattar also possesses a powerful straight right, which setup the finish for him against Burgos and had Fili hurt at the end of round 2. I'm also impressed with his fight IQ. The first round of the Fili fight was a toss up until Kattar took advantage of a slip, landed a takedown, and followed up with some gnp to secure the round. Similarly, round 2 was also very close until Kattar turned it up in the final ten seconds, landing some of the most signficant strikes of the fight. He's also shown strong TDD (he stays balanced and rarely over extends on his punches), a solid chin and excellent cardio.
Moicano is extremely well rounded. He's faced four very different stylistic matchups in his UFC fights and he's been able to adapt his gameplan nicely to each of them. He has fast hands, he mixes up combinations to the head/body and often finishes with a kick. He's obviously a credentialed grappler and from the little we've seen of on him on the ground in the UFC, he looks to be very slick there. Outside of the ill advised shot in round 3 against Ortega, he's been able to mix in some nice reactive takedowns, particularly in the Stephens fight. One thing to keep in mind regarding the end of the Ortega fight is that Moicano's nose was clearly broken about a minute into round 1. I think the combination of dealing with that, Ortega's relentless pressure and ridiculous chin caused Moicano to make a bad decision there.
Kattar does have a few weaknesses that I think Moicano can capitalize on. For one, Kattar is vunerable to leg kicks and Moicano possesses excellent inside and outside low kicks from both stances. Stephens mobility was clearly comprised in the third round of his fight with Moicano. Against Kattar, Fili was having good success with leg kicks in the first round and they were also a big part of what Burgos was able to do in round two. Going to back to his pre-UFC days, Gabriel Baino battered Kattar's legs late in the fight, knocking him down once and forcing him to switch stances at times. Secondly, When Kattar has been backed up, he isn't nearly as effective. With his in and out approach he needs room to work and when he's been pressured back to the cage his opponents have been able to take advantage. I'd like to see Moicano take the opposite approach to what he did in the Stephens fight, be aggressive here and put Kattar on his back foot.
Overall, I think Kattar is being given a little bit too much respect and I feel Moicano should be a small favorite. You have to be impressed with Kattar's first two UFC fights, but they were both very competitive contests and Moicano is a step up from both Fili and Burgos in my opinion. I also think that Moicano has faced the higher level of competition both inside and outside the UFC. I think he has the tools to give Kattar problems and he does enough here to win a close decision.
