UFN 143 on ESPN+ 1 Cejudo vs Dillashaw

Is Edwards the dude, though? I made a bunch on him in TNC and like 10u on Madge over him. Just haven't really seen the breadth of game to nkow if he's UFC level quite yet.

Honestly, I think Bermudez has lost confidence. I think that's a huge issue for him at this point given his style. Now he's going up a weight class (probably to avoid being cut) and facing a better wrestler than himself. On top of that, the guy has KO power. It just seems like a bad matchup to me.
 
Funny how people are so confident in Joe B as a big favorite against Ortiz. Everyone has writing him off last time against Perez, Ortiz is better than Perez IMO. Pass for me but I think value is on Ortiz, he's improved a lot since the first time they fought
I learned my lesson, never bet against Ortiz.
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Sorry for being offtopic, but I am sure you guys can help me out fast... which other betting site does have a Cash-out option (like bet365)?

I am currently just using bet365 and Pinnacle, and I am thinking about registering at another site.
I am from Europe so there is not lack of options for me, and I do like that Cash-out option a loooot
 
Betfair Exchange have something like the cash out option of bet365, but there has to be someone to buy your bet.
 
Having looked at these fight just a bit more I like Dillashaw, Gillespie and Hernandez a lot. Already bet 3u on Hernandez at -175, I expect Dillashaw to give me <-200 then I'm prob going in 5u. Gillespie I expect his price to get worse, I dont have any interest paying -450 as it stands so I'll prob be looking for a prop for that fight.

I like Benavidez, Menifield and Brown to a lesser extent than the previous 3. I need better prices on all of them but will prob only get it on Brown, cant imagine anyone being excited to bet on Ortiz, Moreia or Recountre but I can see folks wanting to bet Benavidez and Menifield. I can see folks fading Brown or just not being excited to bet him though.

Not sure how I feel about Lipski. Saw her getting taken down and dominated on the ground in her 5th fight, Belbita reversed her pretty easily on the ground and Calderwood likes to mix in takedowns. Expect Lipski to have a huge edge standing though, she obv has power and I can see openings in Calderwoods defense where Lipski can take advantage.

Dogs I have my eye on are Edwards, Muhammad, Texeira, Sandhagen and Crowder. Havent committed to any yet though.
 
@ first glance:
TJ is fighting for the 1st time @125 in his MMA career, who knows how hard will the cut be and what effect might have on him and the fight itself. I am not willing to see with my money. I know on paper he is better virtually everywhere than Cejudo, but the adult in me says to avoid this fight :)

I didn't watch a minute of tape of that Ostovich girl, but she is clearly the better looking of them two, so she must be a lot worse :D
About the girl that I know - PVZ - I question her motivation, she is not with Alpha Male for quite some time now, a bad camp but at least a lot of good training partners near her size and structure to her training, now her boyfriend trains her in a garage - not good. Have to look what the other girl can do.

Glover v Ion. I don't know what to think.... Glover is an underdog and it just doesn't seem right. I know he is supposed to lose, he's been through wars and he is old, but something seems fishy to me. How is Ion a favourite here? He was taken down almost at will by Antigulov and Antigulov is a step below as an athlete to Glover and many steps below him in the grappling. And he, like DC said, was so intent on wrestling Ion, that he was not noticing when he was hurting Ion with his punches. So Ion is not invulnerable to punches and even more to being taken down. I honestly think that Ion's best win in the octagon is Jonathan Wilson and he is nothing special, guys. He is an athletic guy who have one dangerous punch and he can't fight backing up at all and have zero wrestling or grappling and have cardio for round and a half. I think bookie is making a mistake here. But we'll see. It's not like I am right every time.

Hernandez I think will win if he read the book on Cerrone. Alex is kinda undersized for the division, but compensate with athleticism and well roundedness - if that is a word? I like Cowboy, but we know the movie - if you get in his face you have more than good chances to beat him. If you let him take you down, or you take him down - and you are kinda clueless on the ground - you are getting choked or your arm removed from your shoulder. Simple. Don't get taken down, pressure him and knock him out inside the 1st. My worry is Hernandez is a little sloppy standing up - everybody that knocked Cowboy out was a very good, measured striker that could pour pinpoint offence and be relatively safe while doing it, so I'll just sit and watch this fight. An unanswered question is what the weighcut back to 155 gonna look like on old Cowboy? We'll see.

I liked all that I saw from that guy Geoff Neal in his debut!!! He was looking like a fighting game character there with Camacho! Amazing fighter. But his ground game maybe liability? Didn't watched his fights outside UFC. I know he lost to Holland. Not a good look. Have to see what Belal has to offer in this fught. But favouring Neal just on a first glance.

Have to agree with Dianabol. People sleeping on Ortiz once again. I know Joe B got an impressive win v Perez, but this doesn't change the fact that he is fading physically and fading @ 125 means death. I don't care how good you are, if you slow down a little, if you are not as strong as before, you are going to lose to evey decent opponent. Even the once you've beat before. Ortiz is more than decent in my book. Have to rewatch some stuff from him to know what I have for sure, tho. But I have hard time seeing him turtling like Perez on the ground taking unanswered shots to the head... Really hard time seeing this happen.

And in the end I don't know about Sandhagen's chances against Lineker, think he is not good enough athlete for him and I am curious about that Gillespie v Medeiros fight. Medeiros going back to 155 and he is kinda hard to take down, his TDD is something like 80%. His stand up is bad, but slowly developing. It was a huge mistake for him to accept this Cerrone fight like not even a full 3 months after a war between him and A.Oliveira. A War with capital W. I honestly can't write him off in this fight. People thoght he will lose for sure to brazilian Cowboy and he won. If he had skills big as his heart he would be the next Jon Jones. Yancy will put up a fight, won't go down easily I think. I favour Gillespie, but who knows what will happen. I'm rooting for Yancy, I like him and Max, hawaiian warriors!



HAHAHA THANK GOD FOR YOUR FADE MATERIAL
 
Having looked at these fight just a bit more I like Dillashaw, Gillespie and Hernandez a lot. Already bet 3u on Hernandez at -175, I expect Dillashaw to give me <-200 then I'm prob going in 5u. Gillespie I expect his price to get worse, I dont have any interest paying -450 as it stands so I'll prob be looking for a prop for that fight.

I like Benavidez, Menifield and Brown to a lesser extent than the previous 3. I need better prices on all of them but will prob only get it on Brown, cant imagine anyone being excited to bet on Ortiz, Moreia or Recountre but I can see folks wanting to bet Benavidez and Menifield. I can see folks fading Brown or just not being excited to bet him though.

Not sure how I feel about Lipski. Saw her getting taken down and dominated on the ground in her 5th fight, Belbita reversed her pretty easily on the ground and Calderwood likes to mix in takedowns. Expect Lipski to have a huge edge standing though, she obv has power and I can see openings in Calderwoods defense where Lipski can take advantage.

Dogs I have my eye on are Edwards, Muhammad, Texeira, Sandhagen and Crowder. Havent committed to any yet though.
Will wait for weigh ins before I make a pick for TJ vs Cejudo

Gillespie should take care of business fairly easily but still too pricey for me.

I also like Hernandez, expect nothing but good things, I wanna bet him but I'm gonna need some line movement, kinda missed my shot.

I agree Lipski should have a significant advantage standing, her speed, KO power and shot selection is impressive, Jo Jo doesn't make herself hard to hit. She got reversed from mount vs Belbita because I think she was trying to set up a mounted triangle, didn't get it but got the armbar 10 seconds after she got reversed. Lipski is a BJJ purple belt, I think she's just as good if not better than Calderwood on the ground. This girl could be a star, she's young, beautiful, athletic, exciting fighter, speaks English. If UFC market her right and she fights to her potential, expect a lot of success for her.
 
For now Im on
Edwards ML + 108
Belal 1u at +124
Sandhagen 1u at +196

I share @Oblivian thought on Bermudez.
Muhammad is a guy that fights for your money. He is the type of guy I would not play as a big favorite and I would fade when he fights a top guy.. this fight is neither of those and I like him as a dog.

Sandhagen has value.. former FW, long, decent fighter. I have been waiting for the opportunity to fade Lineker. The guy should be a FLW but sucks at cutting weight.
I feel like he is overrated because of his fan friendly style and the fact that he somehow (and this is just a personal opinion) overachieved a bit at BW by having good matchups. This might be another one but Im willing to eat a crow for +200 odds. Maybe I should have waited Cory decision line since Lineker is super though to finish.


Just an observation.. I see a lot of you guys are doing a lot of parlays. In my experience that is not a good strategy. You might get pumped because you hit a big one (happened to me) but then they start draining money from your BR. IDK.. do whatever you want but those are my 2 cents.
 
surprised at all the PVZ love, I think Ostovich wins this one easily but I guess I oughtta watch some more tape
 
Parlay is looking like
Greg hardy (I’m a big fan of his prior work)
Gillespie
Van Zant
Dilashaw

Will probably bet individually on Hernandez , I’m a fanboy of his but I’d like to see how he can handle a fight where he should probably predominantly strike a competent opponent,

I like Belal Muhammad as well as a slight dog; an active aggressive striker who will work all 3 rounds

Also Randy brown, this is more a fade on chance Rencounter, looked horrid in his last fight, don’t see a path to victory
 
probably submission
While true, I think relying on any woman currently in wmma to get a submission is likely a losing proposition.
Banking on one of the girls to win by striking volume / aggression ( Van Zant in this case)
will serve you well 90% of the time
 
probably submission
PVZ isn't easy to submit at all it took Namajunas 5 rounds who is way better several levels above Ostovich and in her last fight PVZ was stuck in a triangle with a broken arm and never even looked close to quitting. Ostovich has literally been submitted as many times as she's won by submission and against far weaker competition. To win Ostovich needs to put PVZ on her back for 3 rounds avoiding getting subbed (which she is terrible at) and if PVZ gets on top or keeps it on the feet then she's is going to get beaten badly, she's literally 4 and 4 and got finished in every loss.
 
I like Belal Muhammad as well as a slight dog; an active aggressive striker who will work all 3 rounds
If he strike with Geoff for any extended period he is getting KTFO. It's imperative to wrestle here.

Wouldn't just fade Lineker, unless I got more than a decent athlete against him (and a technician). If you see the guys that he struggled the most it was the super fast Dodson, fast, technical and the much better fighter champ Dillashaw, McCall and Bagautinov because of the wrestling. You have to be a physical force and to be able to maintan that force for the whole 3rds to match him. Guy doesn't get tired doesn't get stunned. He is a terminator. Saying all this, I did not watch Cory, so I reserve the right to change my mind :)

Watched the 1st fight between Ortiz and Joe B. I liked what I saw. Ortiz was very competitive through the whole fight. Had his moments. Joe was not able to wresle him at will and had to mainly outstrike him. I don't see him doing the same with him gassing out like in the Pettis fight. And he was visibly tired even in that 1st Ortiz fight in the 3rd. He is making too much erratic movements and just dynamic shit that it not possible to maintain past the 1st. Ortiz's striking game is matured, can't say the same for Joe. Benavidez will lose this fight and then retire, just like his teammate Chad did after lost to The Hulk.

To me Ortiz is the best underdog to play on the card
. It's a flyweight fight, so no unexpected out from the blue KO is gonna happen and mess with my calculations. I think just the younger eats the old in this case here. I really think Ortiz will make Benavidez look like shit. Just like in Pettis fight, but worse.

And second best underdog is Glover. He is better everywhere IMO. Ion is not dynamic with his footwork or his range punches. He is good at like only @ close range, but in that same range Glover can and will wrestle him. And Glover still can punch hard even at his old age and wars behind him.
 
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If he strike with Geoff for any extended period he is getting KTFO. It's impretative to wrestle here.

Wouldn't just fade Lineker, unless I got more than a decent athlete against him (and a technician). If you see the guys that he struggled the most it was the super fast Dodson, fast, technical and the much better fighter champ Dillashaw, McCall and Bagautinov because of the wrestling. You have to be a physical force and to be able to maintan that force for the whole 3rds to match him. Guy doesn't get tired doesn't get stunned. He is a terminator. Saying all this, I did not watch Cory, so I reserve the right to change my mind :)

Watched the 1st fight between Ortiz and Joe B. I liked what I saw. Ortiz was very competitive through the whole fight. Had his moments. Joe was not able to wresle him at will and had to mainly outstrike him. I don't see him doing the same with him gassing out like in the Pettis fight. And he was visibly tired even in that 1st Ortiz fight in the 3rd. He is making too much erratic movements and just dynamic shit that it not possible to maintain past the 1st. Ortiz's striking game is matured, can't say the same for Joe. Benavidez will lose this fight and then retire, just like his teammate Chad did after lost to The Hulk.

To me Ortiz is the best underdog to play on the card
. It's a flyweight fight, so no unexpected out from the blue KO is gonna happen and mess with my calculations. I think just the younger eats the old in this case here. I really think Ortiz will make Benavidez look like shit. Just like in Pettis fight, but worse.

And second best underdog is Glover. He is better everywhere IMO. Ion is not dynamic with his footwork or his range punches. He is good at like only @ close range, but in that same range Glover can and will wrestle him. And Glover still can punch hard even at his old age and wars behind him.

Should clarify he can take points in the stand up, with pressure he can negate Geoff to a degree, also since he isn’t fighting during Ramadan I’d expect him to look better now, he’s a live dog is all I think for now..
 
I like Muhammad here. Dude's never going to be champ, but he's well-rounded, comes in with good gameplans and fights for your money. Not totally sold on Neal from the Camacho fight, as Camacho clearly had no idea how to close the distance on him and only really wrestles from the clinch.
 
While true, I think relying on any woman currently in wmma to get a submission is likely a losing proposition.
Banking on one of the girls to win by striking volume / aggression ( Van Zant in this case)
will serve you well 90% of the time
I'm not "relying" on it lol, you asked me how I figure she wins and that's how I see it happening but I think she can get the win on the feet or on the ground, but we'll see.
 
Boys I’m about to go full on degenerate on that Gregor Gillespie line if it hovers -200

Wishful thinking probably
 
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