Gotta agree with pretty much everything but I'm not picking Edwards.
I don't like the move to 155 for Bermudez, don't think he has the right frame for 155, too short. Suspect chin, 4 fight losing streak, 16-9 pro record, 32 years old, I think it's fair to say he's past his prime and his prime was never that good.
But I would also argue that Bermudez's last 3 losses were total coin flip fights, besides the Glenn fight which was kind of a robbery. Those losses could have been wins, Bermudez fought close and got unlucky with the judges. Had Bermudez won those fights yet performing the same, the line for this fight would be totally different, get what I'm saying?
Even with everything going against Bermudez, I just can't get over the massive edge in experience he has over Edwards. Edwards is 6-2 and his competition level isn't comparable to Bermudez's at all.
Yes Edwards has a solid wrestling background, KO power he's younger, he's bigger, athletic, 6" reach advantage, trains at the MMA Lab which is a great gym. Edwards seems like a real confident/cocky kind of fighter and he just got dominated in his last fight, I wonder how much did that damage his confidence and how it will affect this performance.
I have to favor Bermudez because besides punching power, Edwards hasn't shown me anything that makes me think he can win this fight. Could totally see Edwards KO'ing Bermudez but have a hard time seeing him win a fight that goes down the stretch. As you said Edwards has never won a fight outside of the 1st round. Also have to think this is do or die for Bermudez, backs against the wall, he needs this win, fighting at home.
You would not believe this but Bermudez has been a betting favorite over his last 15 opponents, the only fighter he wasn't favored over in the UFC was Diego Brandao in his UFC debut. Bermudez is the cheapest he's been in 15 fights and its against Te Edwards, crazy.