UFC 236 Holloway vs Poirier 2

That cracked me up.

Still, I kinda think it will take a lot of effort for him to take Max down. First time Poirier had to literally lift Max off the ground to take him down, this happens when all other regular methods just doesn't work. He has that supreme TDD and he was a kid back then, a lot skinnier than now. + money on Poirier doesn't look tempting at all. Would like to see how much is Poirier by sub, tho.
I think you're going over the last fight too much tbh, both are way improved and I'm just going off recent performances. I lean towards Poirier being able to outgrapple him based on how Max looked against Ortega and how Poirier looked against guys like Pettis where he showed great passing and positional BJJ.

Also we've seen Max stunned briefly in his last 2 fights and Poirier hits hard, that straight left and low leg kicks should make the fight much more competitive on the feet. Almost everyone coming out of ATT has been using calf kicks to great effect and Max's stance makes him susceptible to them so I'd be very surprised if Poirier didn't throw them.

This could obviously look like another typical Max fight where he comfortably outpoints him for a decision or late TKO but there's a lot of areas for Poirier to explore that could lead to a victory and at +225 I'm happy to find out.
 
I think you're going over the last fight too much tbh
Maybe.
My bookie has Belal as 2.15 (+115) Thanks. 5u maxbet on Remember the Name. As long as he avoids being nailed with some fluke knee or something he is winning that fight.
 
Easy to pick Muhammed after seeing what happened to courteous in his last fight
 
So Ortega hits a couple of reactive doubles on Max, Max immediately scoots and gets back up therefore DP will out grapple him? DP typically doesn't shoot he like clinch and body lock against the cage which 1). Is not in the least bit easy to do against Holloway given his footwork and cage awareness and 2) given the fact that Holloway has great wrist control and good ability to find an open angle to escape the fence and clinch 3) Max's guillotine is superb, tight and hes good at finding it when shot on.

Dunno about Max's stance being susceptible to calf kicks since hes comfortable standing in both ortho and sp and we dont know which he'll favor in this fight.

Yeah Max got stung a bit but does DP really hit that much harder than Aldo? Aldo has much faster hands and more power Imo and Max took some clean nukes from him. Given his hard cut to 145 I see no reason his chin won't be better at 155.
 
Max may also have more power at 155.

Should see a healthier better version of max here. Porier better hope he can take him down and keep him there
 
Shit, I went back and watched some tape on Israel. He's too evasive I think - I'm reversing sides on this. First parlay entered. Feel free to shoot me a PM if you want my parlay takes on these fights but I am not publicly posting them.
 
So Ortega hits a couple of reactive doubles on Max, Max immediately scoots and gets back up therefore DP will out grapple him? DP typically doesn't shoot he like clinch and body lock against the cage which 1). Is not in the least bit easy to do against Holloway given his footwork and cage awareness and 2) given the fact that Holloway has great wrist control and good ability to find an open angle to escape the fence and clinch 3) Max's guillotine is superb, tight and hes good at finding it when shot on.

Dunno about Max's stance being susceptible to calf kicks since hes comfortable standing in both ortho and sp and we dont know which he'll favor in this fight.

Yeah Max got stung a bit but does DP really hit that much harder than Aldo? Aldo has much faster hands and more power Imo and Max took some clean nukes from him. Given his hard cut to 145 I see no reason his chin won't be better at 155.

Ortega can't wrestle for shit and his positional grappling is terrible. He couldn't take down anyone in the UFC other than the can he faced in his debut yet got Max down twice. In comparison Poirier has shown great positional grappling controlling someone as difficult on the mat as Pettis.

Not saying Max's chin is shot either but going from seemingly being invulnerable to getting stunned in back to back fights is not a good look and indicates a decline in his durability. He's definitely slower than Aldo (tbf who isn't?) but Poirier still hits very hard and is excellent at following up intelligently once he's hurt guys.

As for the calf kicks Max is always susceptable to leg kicks he just typically offers good boxing counters as guys throw the slower, traditional, above the knee leg kicks. Thats much harder to do vs the faster calf kick.

Where are you guys capping Max if you think there's value betting him here? Or do people just put a lot of weight into his Ortega win? I'd cap him at like -170 and thought Ortega was an easy fight for him tbh.
 
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Just my opinion but I think Max actually looks better at 155 than 145

Also would not surprise me to see Max have more total top control if there is grappling in the contest
 
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Shit, I went back and watched some tape on Israel. He's too evasive I think - I'm reversing sides on this. First parlay entered. Feel free to shoot me a PM if you want my parlay takes on these fights but I am not publicly posting them.
If you poast ur parlays all the online bookies are gonna go bankrupt by the end of the month
 
I see dogs.

Poirier at these odds is a must bet IMO. He's a natural striker that won't let Max piece him up. I wonder what the FGTD props will be. Poirier by decision should be an interesting prop.

I love Adesanya and think he's the future of the division but Gastelum is a very very hard out. He may be the worst case scenario actually for Israel. I want to see props but does Israel have the power to KO Gas or is he going to rely on out pointing him for 25 minutes? Seems like a stretch. On the other hand, does Gas have the ability to get his hands on Israel and make it a dirty fight? Sick, sick fight. Can't wait.

Other initial leans I will have to tape - Looking forward to this one for sure.

I see you losing money
 
I like OSP over Krylov. Krylov has a lot of wins over lesser guys. I think osp keep safe range and will eventually get this down. A repeat in the method of victory wouldn’t surprise me. Osp at -125 seems pretty solid to me
 
Shit, I went back and watched some tape on Israel. He's too evasive I think - I'm reversing sides on this. First parlay entered. Feel free to shoot me a PM if you want my parlay takes on these fights but I am not publicly posting them.

That's suspicious.
 
I think he wins, but -350 seems kinda steep.
I’ve been trying to only bet mismatches and heavy favorites only. I’ve had success. If Andre were to be Monetl, how do you see Andre doing it? I feel Montel has the advantage on the feet and he has a wrestling background. Could Andre out grapple Montel?
 
Ortega can't wrestle for shit and his positional grappling is terrible. He couldn't take down anyone in the UFC other than the can he faced in his debut yet got Max down twice. In comparison Poirier has shown great positional grappling controlling someone as difficult on the mat as Pettis.

Not saying Max's chin is shot either but going from seemingly being invulnerable to get stunned in back to back fights is not a good look and indicates a decline in his durability. He's definitely slower than Aldo (tbf who isn't?) but Poirier still hits very hard and is excellent at following up intelligently once he's hurt guys.

As for the calf kicks Max is always susceptable to leg kicks he just typically offers good boxing counter as guys throw the slower, traditional, above the knee leg kicks. Thats much harder to do vs the faster calf kick.

Where are you guys capping Max if you think there's value betting him here? Or do people just put a lot of weight into his Ortega win? I'd cap him at like -170 and thought Ortega was an easy fight for him tbh.
I like your reasoning a lot and you gave me a big fucking tip with Craig last night that saved me from Barzola/Sheymon Moraes burning out. Tailing you here.
 
Just my opinion but I think Max actually looks better at 155 than 145

Also would not surprise me to see Max have more total top control if there is grappling in the contest
At least he won't be killing himself with a weight cut that makes him look and sound like he had a stroke.
 
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