UFC on ESPN 9 Woodley vs. Burns PBP/Discussion

i think woodley can potentially put burns out of his depth if this goes late, but i cant figure if he's gonna wake up from hypnosis so im on o2.5
 
Well I had some good reads this evening, as has been usual

my only problem Is the bets I made, which just haven’t been good this year. I decided today to switch sides to antonina thinking she would be stronger in the clinch and chook would just try to point fight her.


Quite an oversight by me, probably should’ve watched more tape. Fortunately I’m only down $50 bucks tonight

And I bet on Elliot, despite my trepidation, and he got subbed which was my fear

I have $150 on burns to win $200. I’ll probably lay look to bet fdngtd live
 
Sakai is not bigger relative to his height, he is definitely not stronger, and his "output" is less. He might win, but this is very close betting-wise for a reason.
• Sakai is taller than Ivanov by 4 inches.
• Sakai has a 4 inch reach advantage over Ivanov.
• Sakai cuts weight to make the 265 limit, and is naturally bigger/thicker than Ivanov. The latter is known for being a smaller heavyweight.
• Sakai is generally known for having a higher striking output than Ivanov. Ivanov threw more strikes than usual in this fight, but Sakai still landed more than him.
• I already know it's a close fight, thus the odds. I just like the guy who has the several advantages I mentioned in my previous post.

http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/a6743d41b0b95271

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Sakai ML +105 2u for 2.1u
Sakai no scorecards -111 5.5u for 5u
Ivanov decision +245 4u for 9.8u
Parlay: Cifers/Dern U1.5, Sakai no scorecards, Roberts -3.5, Gutierrez no scorecards 1u for 16.5u
Parlay: Cifers/Dern U1.5, Sakai no scorecards, Roberts -3.5, Gutierrez no scorecards 1u for 9.4u
Parlay: Dern/Cifers ITD, Sakai/Ivanov decision, Chookagian/Shevchenko decision 2u for 4.5u

+12u
 
• Sakai is taller than Ivanov by 4 inches.
• Sakai has a 4 inch reach advantage over Ivanov.
• Sakai cuts weight to make the 265 limit, and is naturally bigger/thicker than Ivanov. The latter is known for being a smaller heavyweight.
• Sakai is generally known for having a higher striking output than Ivanov. Ivanov threw more strikes than usual in this fight, but Sakai still landed more than him.
• I already know it's a close fight, thus the odds. I just like the guy who has the several advantages I mentioned in my previous post.

http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/a6743d41b0b95271

----------

Sakai ML +105 2u for 2.1u
Sakai no scorecards -111 5.5u for 5u
Ivanov decision +245 4u for 9.8u
Parlay: Cifers/Dern U1.5, Sakai no scorecards, Roberts -3.5, Gutierrez no scorecards 1u for 16.5u
Parlay: Cifers/Dern U1.5, Sakai no scorecards, Roberts -3.5, Gutierrez no scorecards 1u for 9.4u
Parlay: Dern/Cifers ITD, Sakai/Ivanov decision, Chookagian/Shevchenko decision 2u for 4.5u

+12u
Nice results congrats!
 
Woodley at weigh ins looked more deflated than he did against Usman. Off dem PEDs still. Hoping he’s got cartoon muscles
 
Is this twood walking out to his own track?
 
On woodley and fight doesnt go distance to close out some parlays, small hedge on burns +162
 
• Sakai is taller than Ivanov by 4 inches.
• Sakai has a 4 inch reach advantage over Ivanov.
• Sakai cuts weight to make the 265 limit, and is naturally bigger/thicker than Ivanov. The latter is known for being a smaller heavyweight.
• Sakai is generally known for having a higher striking output than Ivanov. Ivanov threw more strikes than usual in this fight, but Sakai still landed more than him.
• I already know it's a close fight, thus the odds. I just like the guy who has the several advantages I mentioned in my previous post.

You're really arguing this point now, after the fight just reinforced how freaking close this match-up was, both guys threw similar amounts, and Ivanov got 1 (should have been 2) takedowns to nil? And considering Sakai weighs in at the high 250s, he is not cutting to make the 265 limit. By definition. Those "several advantages" you mentioned were either illusory or irrelevant.

Anywho, let's take my 0.5u in live-bet winnings from the last fight and put it on Burns at +165.
 
T Wood may prove me very wrong here, but cannot see paying juice on a 38 year old that's coming off a 15 month layoff.
 
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